McCain Peaked In Michigan?

Interesting. I've been thinking Romney was down by 5 or 6 in Michigan, especially after New Hampshire. But three new polls suggest otherwise.

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll puts Romney at 30 percent, McCain at 22 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 7 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 5 percent.

Mitchell research has McCain up by one, after having him up by 6 two days before. That's a tracking poll, and some variation does occur. The other polls at least suggest the McCain up by 6 poll is the outlier.

A new Detroit FreePress poll has Romney up by five.

The key may be what Independent voters do. Do they go big for McCain? And how are the different polls accounting for that? In any event, these polls are a welcome boost for Mitt's campaign.

A Mitt win in Michigan totally changes the race. We have Rudy struggling, Romney could win Nevada, too. He'd have time to at least make a push in Florida from a position of perceived strength, no matter what happens in South Carolina. And a loss in Florida wouldn't wipe him out before Super Duper Tuesday. That's when his ability to fund his own campaign would be huge. Given reports from the other campaigns, they can play on February 5th. But they might not be able to play everywhere, making this thing a game of chess.

If it plays out this way and a few candidates split a bucket of delegates on Feb. 5, the measure of success then becomes the delegate count, not won states. It'll then go back to state wins as the primaries go forward, but perceptions of the candidates based upon Iowa, NH and SC goes away. And even then, Romney wouldhave Michigan, Nevada and Wyoming. It would effectively be a new playing field dictated by each candidate's delegate count more than anything else.

Interesting times, ... for sure. Some internals from the McClatchy poll.

McClatchy Newspapers reported: “Romney led McCain by 2 to 1 among voters who ranked the economy and jobs their top concern. He led Huckabee by a slightly greater margin among those voters. He also led McCain by 2 to 1 among likely voters who called themselves Republicans.”

The analysis continued: “McCain owes his solid standing to independents and Democrats, taking 38 percent of their support, while Huckabee had 22 percent and Romney had 18 percent. ... Evangelical Christians represented 46 percent of the likely primary vote in the poll, and Huckabee got 31 percent of their support while Romney got 23 percent.”

Comments

[Aye Chihuahua]

McCain had a bit of a meltdown today when heckled and booed over his immigration position.

From what I've read it wasn't pretty.

Was it enough to cost him Michigan?

I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

[Aye Chihuahua]

McCain had a bit of a meltdown Saturday when heckled and booed over his immigration position.

From what I've read it wasn't pretty.

Was it enough to cost him Michigan?

I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

[Rich]

So McClatchy newpaper, probably the most liberal in the country, and their teammates are credible for pools. Yeah, right. Like we supposed to believe that Huckaby and Romney get 50% of the independent/democrat vote. I've got a bridge or two to sell you.

Let's assume that these polls are accurate. They prove that Romney can win his home state. Glad to see that the habitual liar ( as per my dad, life-long R, R office holder and pretty good judge on what plays with mainstream America) can do that. I'm enthused. Michigan has not elected an R state wide in about 6-8 years so leading among Rs doesn't instill alot of confidence, other than that Michigan will once again go democrat. Why is that important, well VA is gone for the Rs because of their racism and inability to face reality on immigration. Build a wall, great, enforce the law, great but you still haven't dealt with the fact that 12-15 M illegals are already in this country. Anyone who thinks that self-deportation will solve this is crazy. Plus, economically, it isn't desirable. Have the guts to support mass deportation or SHUT-UP. Unfortunately, the conservative movement is consumed by racial hatred and as a reult, we will have president Clinton. WAY TO GO!!!

[Jim Peterson]

Delegates only count if they are really for the candidate personally. After the first vote in a brokered convention, they can go for whomever they want. Ron Paul could have their second vote by next September. Also, Ron Paul is spending all his time in Nevada now.

[Terry Gain]

Rich

IMHO the five biggest issues in the campaign will be the Economy, Security, Immigration, Taxes and Values. Romney is more persuasive than Clinton and Obama on each of these issues. Those supporting McCain are putting all their eggs in the Iraq basket. Iraq is important but the outcome there is not likely to depend on decisions made after November 2008.

Even Clinton and Obama may not be able to undermine the progress in Iraq.

[Terry Gain]

Soros and KOS will continue to do their best to give the Paul campaign the appearance of viability. What better way to undermine the GOP than to support its nutjob.

[Capitalist Infidel]

I wonder what Rich has to say about the disgusting and vile racism coming from the Clinton campaign? The veil is finally coming down. We've always known that the left is inherently racist.

[Beth]

Romney, Romney, Romney!!! Finally, a conservative has a chance of pulling one out!

[steve poling]

Why should it be any surprise that Governor George Romney's son should do well in Michigan? He's a native (as in born here) son, even if he did move out east. Mr. McCain once won a presidential primary election here against that fellow from Texas, but that was only because Democrats crossed over to vote for him. They might do so again, but that doesn't seem a certainty.

Only an unhealthy gullibility of believing press hype can explain it. Mr. McCain has always been a sucker bet. Why vote for a RINO when any real Republican is on the ballot?

[Fred Beloit]

I just heard a snippet of a Romney speech in Michigan. He said Michigan was in economic trouble and when he was POTUS he would "save Michigan". Pretty sure those were the words. Now how can a POTUS save Michigan, where no employers want to locate because of high taxes and super-strong unions? How can any POTUS save any given state from economic troubles? Exactly what powers does a president have that would allow him/her to favor one state above others? Just crazy stuff from this guy.

[Fred Beloit]

In fairness, here is more of this crazy nonsense from the Huckster in Michigan yesterday: "'There was a time in this country when Michigan saved America. Now it is time for America to help save Michigan,' Huckabee told the state's economic elite."