Unfortunately, for those opposed to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee getting the GOP nod, the analysis in an RCP item by John Ellis holds up pretty well. Michigan's depressed economy and a social conservative base in the western portion of the state makes Michigan ripe for Huckabee's populism. Also, fiscally-moderate Independents can vote in the GOP race. The Dem race is uncontested. On top of that, it'll be a three way mash up with a surging McCain and desperate, but wealthy Romney fighting hard, making it a three way race. There will be no consolidated anti-Huckabee vote.
After that things shift to South Carolina, where Huckabee's opposition is again watered down and the Evangelicals should give Huckabee a tremendous boost. After that, there may not be much left between Huckabee and the nomination except for Florida and a cratering Giuliani campaign. If this comes true, Karl Rove's so-called genius in mustering the religious and socially conservative base for Bush could result in the destruction of the Reagan coalition and leave small government and fiscal conservatives, as well as Republican presidential contenders, out in the cold for years to come.
Iowa was grand for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, but New Hampshire was a bonanza. He cast his bread upon the waters there and though he finished a distant third, it was returned manifold. The one thing that Huckabee cannot afford, at this stage of the race, is head-to-head defeat. He needs at least two "strong" candidates in the field while he puts together the pieces of his Republican proletariat coalition.
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