Updated: First Florida Exit Polls

Update: Several places to track results: The Politico is one.

This can't help McCain, can it?

The number of conservatives voting in today's Florida Republican primary ticked up again this election cycle, and most of them showed up at the polls this year with the economy on their minds.

If these preliminary exit poll results hold, the GOP electorate will have moved further right since 1992, when about half described themselves as conservative. This year, conservatives accounted for six in 10 voters. Fewer than half of voters -- about four in 10 -- consider themselves evangelicals.

Also via Jim Geraghty

Interesting. I'm now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as "far behind."

When you weigh all this out, what we're left with for now is a very close race. But this info may be updated, or refined. More at link above.

Update: Also via Jim. AP has them out. I've seen numbers that actually had McCain up, or tied on the economy because of a focus on spending. So, I'm not sure if this means much. Read the piece, many Republicans felt the economy was good. Why did the AP leave immigration numbers out? Not an issue at all? I bet. Oh, and voters were "older" than usual. Not sure that's good for Romney.

Given four choices, nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Terrorism, Iraq and immigration each were picked by fewer than two in 10. The economy also was the top issue out of three choices for voters in the Democratic primary, which none of the candidates contested because of questions over whether Florida's Democratic delegates will be seated. The economy has been seen as increasingly important since the start of the 2008 presidential nomination season.

Eight in 10 Republican primary voters were white and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic — about half of whom were of Cuban heritage. There were few blacks on the GOP side. In the Democratic primary, two-thirds were white, about one in five were black and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic.

Via Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot. I wouldn't make too much of them, but I wouldn't totally dismiss them, either. But they're far from conclusive, as we well know.

The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.

Comments

[WAHOO WILLIE SEZ:]

Naples is publishing exit numbers as they come in:
http://naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/29/exit-polls-find-out-whos-leading-share-you-opinion/

Fred B you have an extra hour to vote so don't look. We dont want you affecting the whole election

[Capitalist Infidel]

Great, looks like we'll have 2 democrats running against each other in the general election.

[Sara]

I would expect the early voters of the day to be seniors, who are in the McCain camp. Later voting will mostly come from voters still working for a living and they are supposed to be breaking for Romney. My daughter told me that her Orlando area suburb is awash with Romney signs, FWIW.

[Sara]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-elections-pres-gop,0,2892059.htmlstory

They are keeping a tally. Not many votes in, but right now it is: 31% to 28% Romney over McCain.

[WAHOO WILLIE SEZ:]

Naples Daily News. Local numbers as of 630

Mitt Romney - 130

John McCain - 91

[Sara]

Wow, should have looked down the list: Hillary 53%, Obama 26%

[WAHOO WILLIE SEZ:]

Sara, Im saying seniors or retirees will prefer Romney's fiscal stance over McCain

[Sara]

I agree Willie, I'm repeating what I heard on the TV alittle while ago. In looking over the early tallies county by county, I don't see it. Where McCain is ahead, it is by 1%.

[WAHOO WILLIE SEZ:]

Hillary 53%, Obama 26%
Yeah, I guess someone shoulda thrown a fit about having delegates taken away instead of whether they could caucus in the work place......

[Sara]

I think it will be long night, the totals just flipped from 3% to 14% of the vote in to McCain 29%, Romney 28%. Looks like Hucster and Rudy tied at 18%.

[Sara]

I'm sorry, I didn't mean 3% to 14% of vote, I meant precincts. Duh!

[WAHOO WILLIE SEZ:]

It's definately neck & neck for Romney and McCain. Looks like it may be a walk for the Hildabeast

[Sara]

Fox has 9% of vote and I think I might be sick. McCain 33% Romney 30%, Guiliani 18%, Huck 13%, Paul 3%.

Hillary still with big led, 52%, Obama 29%, Edwards 15%