Could Media Lag On Florida Influence Debate Coverage?

Fox is focusing on just one poll in Florida - Mason Dixon showing Romney over McCain 30 - 26. Meanwhile, MSNBC preps for the debate tonight by highlighting the need for Rudy and Romney to stop McCain. But we now have three solid polls sans Fred for which no one has computed the averages.

If you do that, you get Romney at 26.3 McCain at 24, with Rudy at 18.6. No matter how you slice it, Romney clearly has the momentum in Florida with potentially a very slight lead. Romney hasn't led all year in Florida until this week. Given that the campaigns use up to date internal polling, those will drive the debate tonight more than the ones we see.

But if they jibe with the most recent from the top-tier polling houses, Rudy has two problems now, assuming he wants to win. And McCain has to find a way to stop Romney's momentum.

Romney, on the other hand, just has to keep things going and look presidential, without making any mistakes, or taking any real hits. You might want to use that measure to guide your interpretation of how the debate goes tonight, as opposed to the mainstream media narrative that McCain is still the guy to beat. They'll give him a win for simply not losing anything tonight. I don't think that's the case.

Comments

[JustADude]

I have some issues with those latest 3 polls. For example it shows in the Insider Advantage poll that Mitt pulls nearly half of the votes in Jacksonville, which is contrary to McCains past performance in a large military town where he actually served as the commander of the countries largest jet squadron after he returned from Nam. That town would more likely give Mc big support with the bible belt area of the state giving more to Huck than the poll indicates.

Also they show Mc pulling low numbers in the panhandle area where Pensacola Naval Air Station is.

[JustADude]

Also the poll shows Mc at a 2 to 1 favorite in Miami which has Mitt, Rudy and Huck near tied for second, which goes against the whole grain of Rudy with his strong support in the Cuban community and the ex NYC retired people in the area.

[JustADude]

Even if those poll percentages are dead on accurate Mitt would still lose since Jax is much smaller than Orlando and the Miami area makes it look like a suburb of the place population wise.

[Dan Riehl]

I sited three polls, what's wrong with the other two? Bottomline, we won't know until people vote. But we get what data we get. I put less creedence in any one poll until it's supported by others. Every poll now shows Romney gaining and or catching McCain.