A Look At New Hampshire

I figure I may as well look at something important, as opposed to dissecting Iowa - there's little time for that - the current RCP average: I've looked at the trending over the months.

  Poll Date         McCain    Romney       Giuliani     Huckabee       Paul      Thompson

12/27 - 01/02     31.3         28.8           10.0          9.5              7.0           2.3

I'm not sure I understand why Huckabee is even going to New Hampshire. He's competitive in Michigan, Nevada and big in South Carolina. He only has five days to move the polls in NH. He could use the time and money elsewhere, while using the weekend debate to shine and probably spike his numbers as much as he will anyway - on top of any bump he might get from his Iowa win. He's been praising McCain. Is his only goal to destroy Mitt? Is he aware of the rumored scandals said to be breaking next week. I assume he is. Does he sense an opening against both by knowing something we don't?

It'll take major inroads into both McCain and Romney support for Huckabee to not follow up Iowa with a possibly now disappointing loss - the media will play it that way.

Romney's rise in NH, from 10 pts. at the start, mostly came from Rudy, not McCain. As McCain tanked in the Fall, some of it went to Romney, that's mostly gone back. Romney really can't afford to go any lower, if he does, he no longer looks viable. McCain is now back as high as he's been this year.

If Huckabee doesn't go at McCain, he can't be playing NH to win. I don't want to get too conspiratorial, but as I said to someone in email - Huckabee is the youngest guy in the field and can always wait, can you think of anything more disastrous for many conservatives than McCain / Huckabee in 2008? Yet, they could probably win a general election with McCain attracting moderates and Huckabee the Evangelicals. Small government and fiscal conservatives would be left holding their noses, or out in the cold and Republican politics would effectively be re-aligned.

Interesting times for political junkies, interesting times.

 

Comments

[seekeronos]

I'm always willing to explore the conspiratorial angle, if only because it gives me something to do with the vast amounts of time on my hands.

Well, not really. :P

But it is still interesting to ponder: As you said, Huck is young, and could suffer a loss this election cycle only to re-surface in four or eight years with the name recognition to carry a serious run. Or, as you said, team up with McCain for the Ultimate RINO Charge.

Sadly, I think that a lot of mainline Pubbies would support such a McCain/Huckabee team, with Huck's "compassionate conservatism (read: nanny-statism)" and the religious angle being softened up by McCain's pragmatism and willingness to compromise with Ol' Scratch Hisself (which will come in handy under an anticipated DemCong supermajority).

My predictions for NH:

McCain - 35~40%+
Romney - 10~12%
Ron Paul - 8~12%
Giuliani - 5~8%
Huckabee - 4~6%
Thompson - 1~2%

Destroying Mitt in NH could have a serious debilitating effect on him elsewhere, damaging him before we even get to Tsunami Tuesday. Since NH is Winner Take All, a McCain win with Huck doing a tied third with Giuilani to a possible notch above Thompson, who has written off NH as a complete loss.

This move could open up SC a little more for Fred, as some Mittheads might consider splitting out for McCain, Fred and Huckabee, in that order. I think McCain would benefit from that the most, but that might also mean less votes going from Mitt to Huck.

Fred needs to parlay this to maximum effect and hit the ground running in his (relatively) homegrounds... even if it means playing up the church crowds to sway potential Huckabeeans to his camp.

If I didn't have plans to go to my brother in law's wedding in Japan, I'd seriously be considering taking that time off to stump in the churches on Sundays for elsewhere the rest of the week for Fred.

[BobInStamford]

Willard needs to talk more about how he has been a hunter for pretty much all his life, how he marched with MLK, how he played with the Beatles at Shea and was also the first Scientologist to go into space. Willard is all things to all patriots.