Most of the late polls show a slight shift within the margin of error towards John McCain. Few internals are available, what ones I looked at show enough inconsistency to not draw a conclusion from any one poll, but it seems to be a trend. McCain's late endorsements and Romney's dumb move to engage the time table issue, without simply dismissing it as false, might have helped shift the discussion to defense and Iraq. Romney does demonstrate some real weakness as a campaigner. He should have never gotten off message.
A quick aside, the State of the Union tonight, likely to feature the war and WOT could also benefit McCain.
McCain, on the other hand, is going over the top in ways destined to hurt him significantly in any potential general election for him. He's sacrificing strategic strength for short term game, not using straight talk when he talks about "more wars." With his temperament issues, his bomb, bomb Iran nonsense and things like this latest, they will paint him as a half-senile war monger in the Fall. I suspect both Hillary and Obama will tear him apart in a general election. And apparently unlike Allah at last link, I don't buy for a minute that the press will still treat him well. He'll get blind-sided by some he thought were friends, especially Hillary, possibly setting off his temper and mouth. Before it's over, I'd expect him to be marginalized as a reasonable choice for POTUS.
We won't know anything until tomorrow night, but there does at least appear to be a shift, which could indicate a larger trend, putting late deciders in his camp. If McCain wins Florida, it won't be over, but McCain would become the clear front runner and odds on favorite to win the nomination.
It's been over since Fred dropped out.
McCain will loose in a landslide agaisnt either Hillary or most likely Obama, that will make the landslides of 1932 and 1984 look like close contests by comparisons.
Posted by: seekeronos | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 12:07 PM
"Dumb"
Romney said it was false and that was it.
His stump speeches remained focused on the economy, it was the chattering classes that spent so much time on this issue.
You can't expect Romney to say nothing in response.
What changed the tide was Crist, not McCain's comments.
Posted by: mike | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 12:12 PM
"Romney said it was false and that was it."
That's not true. He said he wanted an apology, which opened the door for the media to go back at McCain. It created a back and forth lasting through the weekend. A little straight talk doesn't hurt anyone, even Romney supporters.
Posted by: Dan Riehl | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Granted. Forgot about the apology thing. That was a mistake. But given the negative result for McCain on all this timetable stuff, McCain's surge would seem to be more related to Martinez's and Crist's endorsements, n'est-ce pas?
Posted by: mike | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 12:45 PM
I don't know if endorsements mean all that, especially with so many early voters. But they sure didn't hurt. Romney needs Florida to gain in the Feb 5 polls. It would take much deeper analysis to know if it makes sense to go on after a loss. I'm sure he's done that. He could win CA and the West. He really needs to all but split delegates with McCain on Feb 5. I'm not sure how that all stacks up. I've been betting on Rudy's early voting strategy to siphon off potential McCain votes. That could still prove to be the case. But if McCain surges late and big, it's bad news for Romney and the GOP.
Posted by: Dan Riehl | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 12:52 PM
I'm honestly surprised that Romney hasn't secured the Arnold endorsement in California. He should be the default favorite in any closed primary, as McCain has been thriving off the independent vote any time he takes a state.
I'm also curious as to how 9ui11ani's campaign is going to effect the whole. If he drops out after Florida - which he should, because if he can't win Florida, he can't win - will his supporters go to McCain or Romney? McCain's got the conservative street cred on war and terror, but everything is on the economy right now with all the talk of looming recession.
:p
Posted by: IslamoLlama | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 01:25 PM
Giuliani is not surprising ahead of Romney in NY... but both are buried by McCain.
It would be an awful shame to see McCain garner all of NY's 104+ delegates in one night... I might pull the lever for Rudy as an strategic anti-vote against McCain.
Posted by: seekeronos | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 02:10 PM
":p"
Now I know for sure that LameLama is a high school girl
Posted by: Wahoo Willie Sez: | Monday, January 28, 2008 at 04:20 PM