Punditry, Punditry Everywhere

Just one example of how many and how disparate are the headlines on Iowa today. Scan RCP's headlines and you can read Romney controls his own destiny, or Romney is toast. Ha!

Huckabee has gotten past his call for Jesus-like politics and has started to attack. I don't know if it's because he's feeling the pain from shooting himself in the foot so often, or he finally hired a pollster and has learned he doesn't have anything locked up.

Hugh Hewitt notes that Rudy is campaigning in Iowa and possibly New Hampshire. I suspect he's trying to get back in the news cycle more than anything. Out of sight and out of mind and all that. He should have thought of that sooner.

Cillizza at the WaPo says Mitt is the man to beat. Overall, he's probably correct. After the next few weeks, we may be looking at a Romney versus Rudy race unless McCain can raise enough cash to carry on in other states. But in the end, McCain's problems with the Republican base aren't going to go away if Romney is viable.

Michelle suggests an issue for Mitt over a released prisoner - repeat murderer. With all due respect, I don't see an issue. It doesn't appear that Mitt was directly involved, a judge and the Mass. justice department were. Sure, you can hold someone liable for everyone under their administration, but it reads like a reach in this case.

My take for now - I think Romney does okay in Iowa with either a close win, or close loss, and New Hampshire becomes more critical to his campaign.

But things are so divided, it doesn't appear anyone can take and hold a commanding lead right now. That makes it a dog fight among two or three, if McCain hangs on, going into Super Tuesday in February and possibly even beyond. Yes, we could be looking at this thing playing out right onto the convention floor.

If Romney exceeds all expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire, he might be able to put everyone away. That could happen, but I wouldn't bet too much on it today. And Rudy doesn't currently look to have enough strength to put everyone away on Super Tuesday in February.

This may be the primary season that won't go away.

Comments

[JustADude]

I wouldn't put it past some of the smug semi-pro kingmakers in their own mind in Iowa to have been sandbagging the poles for their own enjoyment.

This makes it hard to project but I lean toward not any earth shaking stuff until things get more interesting in South Carolina.

[Fred Beloit]

A caucus is not an election. It is more like a poll, a very skewed poll. A poll about a caucus is completely worthless in terms of what the final public popularity of candidates will be. As far as I'm concerned, we will learn little about who the new Presidential candidate will be except who has spent the most money.