NRO's Campaign Spot: Even I'm Not Buying That

I like Romney, though I'm still open to Fred, or maybe even Rudy - but this?

So not long ago, I heard from a guy backing a Romney rival, who would presumably have reason to whack the former Massachusetts governor, that Romney's internal polling in Iowa has "Huckabee 40, Romney 17."

A second Romneyite told me these numbers "sound about right" and indeed suggests that if Huckabee does not win by 23 percent that the story will be the Romney comeback.

Here are the Iowa results from 2000:

With 96 percent of the Republican precincts reporting, Bush had a vote tally of 41 percent, Forbes 30 percent, and Keyes 14 percent.

Unfortunately, it does jibe with the Newsweek poll. But that has a relevant MOE of plus/minus 7. Internal polls don't. If Romney can't tie or beat Forbes 30 percent from 2000, maybe he doesn't belong in the race. I think he does. And I think this is a little bit of expectations management on the part of the Romney campaign. But, hey - it's in the game.

Comments

[Sara]

I read yesterday that there is suspicion that the Huckabee poll numbers are a result of poll spamming in the nature of Ron Paul. I have looked and looked today for that link and can not find it again. Darn. However, I agree with you that there is something not quite right. Romney was up and then in one day he goes down by 10 to 20 points. That just doesn't make sense.

I would not vote for any of the dem candidates, nor for Ron Paul, but any of the others on the GOP side I would, if I have to. However, of all of them, Huck would be my very last choice, not even close to Rudy or even McCain, who I do not trust one whit. I lived through the Carter years once and I do not want a replay. He seems like a nice genial man, but as President he would be a total disaster and would 100% guarantee a GOP loss in the general, IMHO.

[BobInStamford]

Sounds like the work of the EVIL Lamanites!!! Those injuns just don't learn. Either that or the Paultards. Either way, Moroni better send down some more plates, stat!!!

[seekeronos]

Meh. The timing sure is convenient.

And what a way to PERMANENTLY the "evangelical" voters, whether or not Huckabee wins or loses: if they have overwhelmingly supported a guy who proves to be the re-incarnation of Jimmah Cartuh, nobody will ever give a rotten pizza crust about what Christians have to say about politics ever again.

If the godless heathen Giuliani, or the Mormon Romney win the nom - the evangelicals get disenfrachised and won't be represented in their president.

If Huckabee wins, they loose because Huckabee will effectively destroy the nation, if not the credibility of the evangelicals in backing the right horse.

Man, the MSM and the Democrat operatives have really pulled a coup here, even if their chosen beast Hillary doesn't win the POTUS race. How Byzantine this is becoming... if indeed this is a well-laid plan by DNC staffers and secret actors.

Of course, that would involve acknowledging that this is more than a gappy accident for the Dems, and that they do have operators that rival if not surpass Karl Rove's genius abilities.

If this is how it plays out, I won't begrudge the Dems the courtesy of recognizing a winning gambit that reaches Machiavellian heights... but it won't last long, as the neither the Republic nor the GOP will survive the until the lame-duck term of whoever wins in 2008.

[tally]

i've never had much faith in poll numbers. as far as the romney camp, they are as sneaky as their leader. maybe iowa has figured that out, but i doubt it.

[JP]

Why can't we have a Thompson/Hunter ticket?? All the experience but none of the scandals.

[seekeronos]

"--- Why can't we have a Thompson/Hunter ticket?? All the experience but none of the scandals. ---"

Amen. UNfortunately, I do not think that the "Machine" will permit that.