Huck: Blaming Rove And Why It Ain't Gonna Happen

Howard Fineman gets around to pointing out what's known but hasn't much been said:

Huckabee is the revenge of history on the GOP. Party strategists built the base on evangelicals in the South. Now they will have to live with the results.

You would think this means live by the Bible, die by the Bible, but it won't. You can take a look at some comprehensive data on Religion in America, including registered voters to realize that. To the extent we can align Baptists with the Evangelical movement, you're talking about 12.9% of the electorate. And if you go state by state in terms of dominance, the faction doesn't drive enough delegates, or electoral votes to win a primary, or a general election.

Yes, as Allah points out, there may be consequences as regards the GOP in the end, but they won't come because Huckabee gets the nomination. They may come because he won't.

The two most divisive topics in America are Religion and Politics. In the end, even including many Evangelicals, the number of Americans who want to mix them up so closely simply isn't that great. The Huckaboom is more media pundit frenzy and snapshot poll driven buzz, doomed to fizzle in the end. It ain't gonna happen, folks. But I guess everyone wants to have their fun fretting that it could.

Here's the latest Rasmussen poll. Tear it up.

Comments

[Sharon]

Every day now I read you first, because, with few exceptions, most of the blogs are being non-commital about this freak show. I hope you are right. I haven't heard a single policy statement from this guy that makes sense in the real world. How is he doing this?

[oldtimer]

I have many friends who are Evangelical and Baptist, and none of them are behind Huck. I have thoughat all along this is media driven.

[seekeronos]

I don't see the "evangelicals" (mostly the bigger money Pentecostal/charismatic eing of the SBC/AOG alliance, less the mainstream or traditional denominations) amounting to very much in the future.

They had their run as an anomaly that had helped Bush'43 to get elected twice. If they continue to support a dead horse (Huckabee), they will be marginalized for the next several generations as people begin to see how uninformed their choices are.

The wiser among them will simply swallow their anti-mormon bias and vote for Romney, with a fraction drifting off to the unelectables (the bottom five candidates) and maybe a small handful in the Super Tuesday states supporting Rudy out of spite for the Mormon.

I'd say that Romney has his nomination in the bag as much as Hillary will haver hers (she looks like she is in deep water now, but again, she is still a Yamato-class battleship compared to her DD and CL sized competition).

The Huckamonster will be a Huckawasn't as the money, the PR engines, and the business savvy propel Romney through the early primaries.

I'm still going to pull for Fred in vain hopes that the polls are lying, but because most of the important polls are controlled by the leftist MSM... I won't hold my breath either. Come November when Romney faces off against Hillary (or at a far stretch Obama) - I'll go with the Mormon and hope he doesn't do any worse.