Updated and Bumped: Chavez Claiming Victory

Update: Chavez defeated by 5%? See here and here.

Update: Scandal? Who'd a thunk it, geesh. Most reports had turnout as low.

CARACAS, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) -- Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) has delayed the initial results of Sunday's national referendum on constitutional reforms. It said the postponement is because voter turnout was so high that some stations remained open after closing time.

There are other reports claiming it's still too close to call. see here and here.

Also here and here.

Update: There are three government ministers claiming victory for Chavez based opon exit polls and electoral data. That is not official, actually, by law, they shouldn't be talking. But, uh ... well, consider the source.

And he's doing it on Mecca time. The Tehran papers have also been following the vote. Interesting that this would first turn up on Al Jazeera, via Reuters, ay?

Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, is heading for victory in a referendum on allowing him to remain in power as long as he keeps winning elections, two government-linked sources said citing exit polls.

Three exit polls showed Chavez won by between six and eight points in a vote where turnout was low, they told Reuters news agency.

If confirmed, the results would be by far the slimmest victory margin in the career of a man who wants to rule for life.

Most pre-vote opinion surveys predicted a close referendum on the raft of constitutional changes that the opposition and even some longtime former allies say are authoritarian.

An emboldened opposition and recent violent clashes during street protests have created fears of a potentially volatile dispute.

Comments

[Yoda]

Crash programs on tar/shale/coal, we need. Let Chavez drink his oil, we should.

[seekeronos]

Wisely spoken, Master Yoda has.

[rwilymz]

Chavez doesn't have the refining capacity for his oil. It's not a coincidence that he ships 90% of his country's petroleum to TX to get it refined [Citgo, in case you're interested]. He's got no other outlet.

He can't build refining capacity since no one in his country has the technical know-how -- and those who arguably *did* were run off in the talent purge following his inauguration. He also can't ship it to other nations, since they are largely at their own capacity, not to mention it's only a short 3-day sail from Caracas to New Orleans and Galveston, and a two, three week trip to, say, India or China. And time's money.

Even at $90/bbl, sending your petroleum on a 2-week cruise is an extravagence his nation -- and more specifically, his *expenditures* in his nation -- cannot afford.

His options are:
1] hire Americans to come build him refineries, but his pride won't allow that
2] continue sending his oil to the US to refine, which burns his 'nads
3] beg other nations to refine his oil for him, pay them extra to do it, and lose more money than necessary on trasportation.

Awwww, poor Hugo.

[coldjoint]

this could be a problem for chavez, but there are deep pockets in islam. this is where he will turn for help. if there is something america can do to block islamic aid they better start now.

[rwilymz]

Why?

Chavez isn't poor; oil is $90/bbl fergodsake. It costs him $5/bbl to get it out of the ground. ...if that. Venezuela ain't the US with its inflated pay scale.

But let's say that Hugo's funding of FARC geurillas, and underwriting the profit-neutral economies of both Bolivia and Cuba is eating into his cash reserves. He has already ideologically allied himself with Iran, and he and Ahmadinejad are two megalomaniacs in a messianic pod.

One thing hardly anyone recognizes as a benefit from the invasion of Iraq is that by invading *just that one country*, we eliminated *three* nations from panislamist paramilitary funding: Iraq, Libya and Yemen. There are basically only two funding nations left: Iran and Syria.

Those two are now virtually responsible for funding all the huge cash and materiel needs of all the various groups waging jihad against the west in general and the US in particular. And there are hundreds of these groups. [A few are privately funded -- al Qaida e.g. subsists on the islamist version of bake sales and charity drives, at this point.]

But with Syria and Iran being the main two left having an open checkbook, to put Venezuela on their payroll -- whose main ambition seems to be to topple the government of Columbia -- that simply means less for everyone else, i.e., the panislamists.

What will happen if Hezbollah can't meet payroll? Same thing that happened in Hamas when the EU stopped its financial aid to "palestinians": virtual civil war. They'll turn on each other.

Diplomacy is the art of lying for one's country [A Bierce]; and a very politic lie for our diplomats would be "Oh, no! We can't have Chavez cozying up to A'jad and having Iran fund Venezuela." But then we should do nothing to stop it. Let Chavez siphon off panislamist payroll money and let the in-fighting begin.