via The Corner - linking to a Rasmussen poll. There's some analysis at The Corner and also in the article. I'll add mine below.
Favorable opinions of Huckabee have dropped from 81% to 67% over the past week and the Huckabee tide has receded a bit. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are now essentially tied for the lead in the state that will vote first in 2008.
It’s now Huckabee 28%, Romney 27%, and the man endorsed by the Des Moines Register, John McCain, in third at 14%. No other Republican candidate reaches double digits. Before the attacks on Huckabee’s record began to have an impact, the former Arkansas Governor enjoyed a double digit lead in the previous Rasmussen Reports poll. The current results place Huckabee at the same level of support that he had in late November, when he first moved ahead of Romney.
This is the second Rasmussen Reports poll released this week to show Huckabee losing his lead and falling back into a tie with Romney. In South Carolina, both Huckabee and Romney now earn 33% of the vote. Earlier in the month, Huckabee had opened up a seven point lead. However, while the Huckabee tide may have pulled back from its high water mark in the earliest voting states, it continues to be felt around the country. Nationally, Huckabee still leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In Missouri, Huckabee holds a two-point edge over Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up at the same time Clinton holds a six-point edge over Giuliani.
Polls are all over the map and will likely continue that way. All the states are difficult to clearly assess, so take all this with a grain of salt. What one can define are certain trends. Huck up, now coming back down. No surprise there if you read this blog. The national polls will be behind the state polls on trends. And in state primaries, ground game will mean a lot. It's likely to influence the results. Also watch for Thompson to possibly start moving in Iowa, just not sure how much, or from whom he'll take support. Probably Huckabee, he's going after him, anyway. His internals must suggest there's something there for him to exploit.
Anyway, check them all out at Real Clear Politics. But except for when there are clear, consistent trends across polls over time, I'd use them as a glimpse of the broader picture and not much more. Watch the candidates, where they are going, who they are targeting and how hard. That'll give you a better sense of what's going on. Rudy has effectively folded the tent in the early states - Tancredo is believed to be dropping out tomorrow. And this thing will likely remain a crap shoot down until the end.
Buckle up.
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