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Thursday, June 21, 2007

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"The Iraqi population wasn't pissed off enough at their dictator to want to replace him."

They tried in late '91. The US promised the 60% Shi'a that if they'd revolt, we'd support them -- it was one of the side-bennies of the No-Flies: protect the potential revolutionaries.

But the US failed to support them, and Hussein's goons had another round of "Ethnic Cleansing" added to his resume. US foreign policy cannot be accused of being consistent.

A large part of the Iraqis between the wars simply didn't trust us, with good reason.

"the standard of living in Iraq took a disasterious nose-dive once our invasion was complete probably didn't help convince the population"

This was another of my personal criticisms of the after-war.

Ever see the movie _Patton_? At the end of the war, Patton was the regional military governor of Bavaria. He hired a whole phalanx of ex-Naxi bureaucrats to run his province. In the movie, George C Scott is riding around a horse arena and reporters are asking him questions, and one of them says "General Marshall is wondering why you've hired Nazis to run your occupation. Didn't we just fight the Nazis?"

Patton's reply was: "Tell General Marshall that when he sends me 10,000 people to replace them, I'll fire the Nazis, but until then the people need water and food and electricity."

Our immediate after-war policy was "No Ba'athists Need Apply". But the Ba'athists were the ones who ran everything, the utilities, the services, the distribution. Say whatever unkind things you want about "bureaucracy" and it's probably deserved, but it gets things done.

The US was so intent on removing Hussein, anyone who looked like him, and the camel he rode in on, that the needs of the Iraqi people -- whose favor we had a relatively short time to win -- were almost inconsequential.

"Our immediate after-war policy was "No Ba'athists Need Apply". But the Ba'athists were the ones who ran everything, the utilities, the services, the distribution. Say whatever unkind things you want about "bureaucracy" and it's probably deserved, but it gets things done."

---I have to agree with you on that. We might have done much better to keep the ex-Baathists on a short leash, and perhaps even replaced Saddam with a Baathist leader who was on a very short leash to the US, leaving the underpinnings of the remains of regime m/l intact in place, but drastically less able to savage other Iraqis.

Oops. forgot to add that it would have been more of a case of "Regime Management" than Regime Change". :P

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