Will Republicans Pay For Abandoning Enforcement On Immigration?

If you cut to the chase with Republican legislators on the current immigration debate, you might find yourself looking at this page as the reasoning behind their move. It's a chronological listing of recent polling on immigration issues. Coincidentally, Captain's Quarters has an item on polling today as part of the current Online News Association discussions. But one doesn't even need these caveats to understand the Republicans are courting disaster based on the very polling some might cite, which I address briefly below.

Jim says that we should also be wary of media polls. They are performed by amateurs for the most part. Campaign polls are usually more reliable, if you can get to the data. (Paul conducts the Iowa Poll, which is usually pretty reliable for the Iowa caucuses.)

This so far features a lot of generalizations and common sense. Check the sample, for instance, and the methodology. Hardly groundbreaking, but then again, maybe people don't think to do that. Everyone emphasizes the fact that professional pollsters do better jobs than amateurs, and that the pros get snapped up by campaigns -- which leaves unsaid the fact that the polls we get to see are not the highest-quality surveys on the market.

From CNN/ORC on May 4. This poll was taken over a months time and shows no movement for several months previous:

"Creating a program that would allow illegal immigrants already living in the United States for a number of years to stay in this country and apply for U.S. citizenship if they had a job and paid back taxes"

               %      favor         oppose        unsure

5/4-6/07              80             19                1

But look right below it at an NBC/WSJ poll, also with tracking over months with no change:

"As you may know, President Bush has proposed to allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal, temporary-worker status. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposal?"

               Strong Fav  Somewhat Fav  Somewhat Opp.     Strong Opp.  Depends

4/20-23/07     14               30                  18                  33                 5

In the first place, you can throw the CNN poll, if not both polls, out. It's pure spin to suggest 80% of Americans support any one thing, let alone one stance on any immigration issue. Certainly both polls cannot be right. Are the Republicans in Congress going to start taking their marching orders from CNN? Good luck with that.

Besides that, everyone knows there will never be any back taxes paid. That's a joke, there are no records to suggest what they even are and the administration of such an endeavor would swamp the Feds. And everyone also knows enforcement will go by the wayside once any amnesty is given, spiking illegal immigration all the more.

But the real key is that 33 Strongly Opposed, of which even I am not one - provided we do enforcement first.

That 33% of the population is the GOP base. It is what they win and lose elections upon. And it is precisely that the GOP is in process of abandoning 18 months out from an election. That is a betrayal from which they will not recover any time soon. The Republicans are damning themselves to minority status for years, if not for good. Between the isolationist wing of the conservative movement angry over Iraq and the strong anti-illegal-immigration wing, conservatives will be forced to find somewhere else to go.

Stop the GOP cave in on immigration here and here. Or get comfortable with Democrat majorities in Congress and probably Democrat Presidents for years. The DC Republicans are accomplishing nothing but proving how out of touch they really are with their conservative base.

Comments

[Dan Riehl]

Im getting tired of people, not just you, Zif - who feel the need to use expletives for everything. People need to either start policing their language, or I'll have to, which I would rather not.

[The Bovina Bloviator]

After all these years the GOP still hasn't learned any deal with Ted Kennedy is a Faustian bargain. Fools.

[jerry]

they won't pay any price. Where I live, people are very supportive of this bill. I think it'll sail through and end up being a good program. You can't please everybody. Republicans had 12 years to do something about it, they didn't, so screw them!

[bloodrage bob]

so let's recap. a huge majority of the american people want illegal immigration stopped now, recognizing it as the biggest threat to our country & way of life.

the political parties that run the country, however, don't give a damn about that. party 'A', the donkey party, *wants* lots & lots of wetbacks for political reasons: new immigrants traditionally vote democrat; and dems traditionally buy votes by granting their voters lots of freebies from uncle sugar. so they're going to encourage illegals, and the voters be damned. party 'B', the elephant party, *wants* lots & lots of wetbacks for political reasons: wetbacks work cheap; thus putting LOTS of downward pressure on wages - not *executive* wages, of course. don't be silly! - thus pleasing the republicans' corporate masters. so they're going to encourage illegals, and the voters be damned.

this will not end well.....i can only hope that when it all goes up in flames, i only hope the swine in congress get pulled out of their mansions to be burned at the stake. because apparently, that's what it'll take to get them to listen to the will of the people. "republicans are just the same as democrats, just 20% cheaper."

a pox on **both** their foul, stinking houses.

[MyNameisSHIT]

Shit! Shit! Shit!

Nuff said.

[MyNameisSHIT]

Shit! Shit! Shit!

Nuff said.

[old trooper]

This a bad joke.

Those folks that have disregarded our laws will disregard this one as well.

[old trooper]

This a bad joke.

Those folks that have disregarded our laws will disregard this one as well.

[southdakotaboy]

Ok, so everyone is upset about this. What is going to be done about it. Do the conservative blogers finally get active like the nutroots guys do and start running real primary opposition candidates? Do we tell these congress men and women that since they voted for this that we will now nolonger give them money? And really mean it this time or are will we just take them back like every poor sucker takes back their unfaithful spouse (I promise honey it will never happen again)?
I for one am almost to the point that I think we should just let the Dems run this place into the ground and then just restart on a smaller scale. When it happens the libs will need good people to rebuild the mess they created, I just won't help. If that means I don't raise more cattle than I need to well I just get by with less (lower costs anyway). If I raise just enough crops to pay the property taxes, so what I don't need to go get anything for awhile. If enough of us do that its going to get mighty tight in the cities. I know some rather uneducated people will say we can import what we need. I would like to remind them that if the economy goes south where will the money to pay for it come from? I would just like to point out that it doesn't take lefties very long to ruin a countries economy and for food shortages to start.

[templar knight]

You're absolutely right, sdb. Zimbabwe, one of the richest per capita nations in Africa, and one of the bright spots as far as agriculture was concerned, has been driven into the ground by Leftists. Zibabwe is now one of the poorest countries in Africa. Keep your eyes on Venezuela now. The same Left-wing elements have taken over that country, instituted communism(sorta), and now are rushing pell-mell down the path to destruction. As soon as oil prices drop, and they will, Venezuela is toast.

To think the very same thing can't happen in the US is to be ignorant of history, and ignorant of human nature. Get ready for a ride.

[southdakotaboy]

No Zifnab it should be at the forfront of everyones worries. You just don't seem to grasp that the lefts policies have failed everywhere in the world where they have been tried. You could claim that China has succeded , but do you really want to live in a place like China?
Zifnab the Dems are going to take this economy and run it into the ground. Then what are you going to do with the millions of unemployed? Also look at what this is going to do to wages. The former illegals will now be able to strike. At first glance you think that is a good thing, but what happens when the companies either leave or just stop hiring people? What is the Government going to do when they can't feed or house the massive number of unemployed, unassimilated, radical urban poor?
The culture of victimhood and entitlement that the libs have created is a powder keg looking to go off and all it needs is a spark to light the fuse. What are we going to do when the rival ethnic gangs really start to go after each other? Look around the world at all the countries that tried the whole multicultural thing. They are slowly imploding. It should worry you Zifnab. It really should.

[seekeronos]

This is what awaits us if we do not repent, turn away from our wicked ways, and embrace Jesus Christ as our Lord:

We will have civil war by 2020. Red states will have already stopped feeding the coasts, the gov't will declare martial law and suspend the Constitution, and people with guns will be forced to surrender their arms or be interned for being "Christo-terrorists".

The Red states will revolt, and blood will flow up to hip and thigh. Hispanics will butcher whites and rape their women, whites will ethnically cleanse areas where they are still a majority, and blacks will rampage throughout their majority cities and into the countrysides looking for food and whitey to kill to exact their "rightful revenge for centuries of oppression".

Perhaps Russian, Chinese, and Mexican troops will be deployed to the cities to help quell the insurrection; Israel will be overrun by the remains of the Combined Armies of Allah that survived Israel's nukes; Russia will throw in on the side of the Arabs to grab what oil hasn't been irradiated, and maybe this will be the point when we see a certain false "saviour" step up to the plate to begin that awful seven years of perdition known as the time of Jacob's trouble.

Christians and Jews will be slaughtered by the millions, perhaps even those who recant the Cross because they loved their lives more...

...And then, the wrath of Almighty Yahweh shall be revealed against the unrighteous. He shall deliver His people Israel, and He shall save His elect.