Some Surprises In Marist Poll

What did Al (Climate Oscar) Gore do to make 53% of registered voters decide that they would not consider voting for him under any circumstances?

The mainstream media's takeaway from this new WNBC/Marist poll may be that Hillary can beat (out poll) Giuliani and McCain, but the horse race aspects really aren't very compelling and there are some genuinely interesting numbers beneath the headlines you'll likely not hear too much about.

35% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationwide support Hillary but only 60% of those do so strongly. Prominent in the public eye for over a decade, and Hillary can only seal the deal with 20% of Dems and Leaners and this is supposed to make her strong? Maybe not. Especially as it isn't much higher than the 12% of Dems who would never vote for her at all and it's far lower than the 40% of Ind. who feel the same.

The Netroots would have us believe Hillary is playing too much the moderate, especially on Iraq. Yet, only 7% of voters find her too conservative, while 40% find her too liberal as it is. Given the breakdown, Hillary's only hope of becoming President means she is going to have to track slightly more Right. I can't wait to see that one playing out across the Lefty blogs that immediately threaten support and fund raising efforts when they don't get their way.

As for Rudy, would you say this is a fair way to word a question, or not?

Question Wording: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights Republican.

My guess is someone was disappointed that, when posed only to Republicans, 62% either said it was only a slight factor, or not a factor at all. Furthermore, given Hillary's weak strong support, and that slightly more Dems are looking for strong leadership, as opposed to change (27%-24%), there are plenty of Dems who would likely find themselves supporting Rudy in any potential head to head.

The Poll blurb suggests Giuliani's support has tempered but the numbers actually don't back that up if you realize what's happened with the Republican side of the poll. Fred Thompson pulled 13% and it was the first time he was introduced. He took points from every other Republican in the poll except for Giuliani, who remained steady at 28% from February until now. McCain, Gingrich and Romney each lost three points to Fred, but Rudy's numbers didn't move at all.

This suggests a Thompson candidacy is mostly a threat to Republicans either identified or trying to be identified as more to the Right. Whichever one emerges as the winner of that battle, McCain, Thompson, a theoretical Gingrinch or Romney is most likely going to have to do battle with Rudy to get the nomination down the stretch.

ymmv Poll detail here.

Comments

[Zifnab]

"What did Al (Climate Oscar) Gore do to make 53% of registered voters decide that they would not consider voting for him under any circumstances?"

The fact that he's not running for President might be a big factor, Dan.

That said, "Among registered voters, enthusiasm for Rudy Giuliani has mollified. Although 58% still say they will consider voting for him for president, 39% say they definitely will not do so."

So does that mean if Rudy goes head-to-head with Hillary that 40% of the die-hard base on each side will be staying home?

I think you're getting a bit lost in the numbers here.

[Phoenix]

The fact that he's not running for President might be a big factor, Dan. - By Zif.

Hi Zif!

What would you have done had you been president after 9/11?

[ConserView]

Rudy has stated plainly that his pro-gun control stance only applied to NYC when he was mayor and trying to reduce crime there.

[Zifnab]

"What would you have done had you been president after 9/11?"

Check about twenty threads back, Pheonix. We already had this conversation at least twice.

[jong]

Here's another interesting poll. I'm not in favor of impeachment, but it's a bit shocking at the support it has among the public. This spells major trouble for Republican presidential candidates, particularly if Iraq doesn't get better.

"Would you favor or oppose the impeachment by Congress of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney?"

Favor: 39%

Oppose:55 %

Undecided/Don't Know: 6%

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20610

[Zifnab]

The best part is the guy who ran that poll worked for Newt Gingrich. When even the Republican polls are coming up with the Big I, you know the party is in trouble.

I'm still waiting for Arlen Specter or John Boenher to draw up impeachment proceedings just to stem the massive hemoraging this administration has done to its own party's congregation.

[Buzzy]

Sadly for the nutroots they are going to once again cost the Democrats the election in 2008. Even Hillary has ventured too far left to avoid being labeled a flip flopper should she regain her sanity and re approach the Blue Dog Dems (ie: Democratic conservatives).

As for Rudy, I don't care why he supports taxpayer funded abortion or gun grabbing and I fail to see how he differs from Bush on Iraq BUT I would rather vote for him (holding my nose all the while) than see Hillary, Obama or any of the Lefts candidates get in power.

The question of course is will someone on the left move towards the center and garner enough votes to win? Hillary could but she'd be labeled a flip flopper, Obama could lose his entire base if he tried, Edwards well he's just spinning his wheels.

[Phoenix]

Check about twenty threads back, Pheonix. We already had this conversation at least twice.

Posted by: Zifnab | Wednesday, May 09, 2007 at 05:58 PM

You said that you would have looked over the information very carefully before 9/11. That's how you answered that question. That's not the answer to the question. What would you have done if you had been reading "My Pet Goat" and one of your henchmen whispered in your ear that the country was under attack - the events of 9/11. And don't say you would have stampeded the little kids getting out of that classroom. :) Actually, I'm curious, for real, to know what you would have done.

*If anyone on the blog saw Zif's answer other than the one I've mentioned here, please tell me. I must have missed it if he actually responded beyond his first refusal to answer it.