Siege: From Vienna To Beirut

Many blogs seem to be ignoring developments in Lebanon. I think we tend to get excited about exciting news and not the long slow process of what appears to be playing out in Beirut. But history suggests it shouldn't be ignored.

It may be impossible to comprehend the significance of today's event in Lebanon without a walk back through history. We seem to be experiencing the modern day equivalent of a siege.

12/03/2006  --  Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, emboldened by Arab and international support for his U.S.-backed government, vowed on Sunday to stay in office despite Hezbollah protests that aim to pressure him into resigning.

While two rival religious Masses were in progress, thousands of flag-waving Hezbollah supporters and their allies from pro-Syrian parties continued their open-ended sit-in calling on Saniora to step down and pave the way for the formation of a new government.

Amid the sound of revolutionary and nationalist songs blaring from protesters' tents set up in the heart of Beirut, Lebanon's capital, a Mass was held at Saniora's office in memory of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel who was assassinated by gunmen in a Beirut suburb last month.

In 1529 it was Vienna, a siege which marked the beginning of the decline of the Ottoman Empire.

It marked the end of the Ottoman advance towards the centre of Europe and the beginning of their long decline from being the dominant power of the Renaissance world. While they would remain strong for many years, eventually mounting another siege in 1683 before the Battle of Vienna, they would never again reach the same level of threat as in 1529.

Barring an outbreak in actual fighting, the current siege in Beirut is more a test of wills than it is of walls, gates and armies. But given current events in the Middle East, from Iran and Iraq, to Syria and Lebanon, with their relationship to Israel, whatever the end result, it could prove to be as significant for civilization as was Vienna.

Gateway Pundit has a round on Lebanon up here and will likely update. I'd suggest keeping a close eye on Michael Totten's blog, too.

Hizbullah, Aoun and Syria's parties are overstaying their welcome. The patience of Beirut citizens and Lebanese from the opposing camp is wearing thin.

LBC is reporting riots involving Sunnis and Shias in the  neighborhood of Qasqas as I type this. The Lebanese army has intervened. (Update: The clashes were reportedly between a Hizbullah convoy  passing through the area and Sunni residents)

Comments

[Carol Herman]

Do you think the french, who proffered the #1701 "deal" ... that condi rice thought would anger Olmert. BUT IT DIDN'T.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel is looking to stay "out of it." But she is shoring up her northern border, so the Hezbollah can't start anything provocative. Because? IF the siege is "successful," then nasrallah goes and moves among the french. And, threatens Israel. (Which, of course, would be stupid.) The IDF is more prepared NOW than it was this summer! And, it's not putting out "hot shots" who grab vehicles; in order to be captured like "tasty fishes."

As to a siege, it's one thing when it starts. And, there's a "party mood, in a party city." And, it's another when the water stops. Or the sewage backs up. (Heck, I was at Woodstock! You have no idea of what the toilets looked like, in that FREE CONCERT setting, three days into the "event.")

It's one thing to have an army "siege." Armies can move logistics. What's nasrallah got? What happens if sickness sets in? There are so many ways to see this as a bigger problem for nasrallah. Than NOT. Unless the french intend to supply the food and water.

Are you ready for that?

[Dan Riehl]

You underestimate the organization of Hezbollah, especially with Syria and Iran in the mix. When they started they were talking about rotations to keep it up. You think Hez can smuggle thousands of rockets, get them secreted away in fortified locations but not haul food and water? M' kay.

And don't compare the hardships of the Hezzie's to someone from the West. For heavens sake, many of the protesters have nothing much better back at home.

That isn't to say I think the siege will work - maybe, maybe not. More will be resolved through talks among the politicos than the presence of the crowd, unless the current fighting spreads, then all bets are off.

[mkultra]

Wait - I thought peaceful assembly to protest the actions of a government is a good thing? Isn't this what democracy is all about? What about the "protest babes"?

The Bush administration greenlights a bombing campaign in Lebanon that kills hundreds of civilians. The civilians, in turn, rise up against their government for not protecting them (and for being backed by the very same government that greenlighted the bombing in the first place). Why should anyone be surprised?

This was a predictable consequence of what happened last summer. Bush ok'ed the devastation of Lebanon. The Lebanese, in turn, want to throw out the government that is in league with the Bush administration.

Gosh, coulnd't see that one coming. No siree.

Are you trying to be dumb?

[Dan Riehl]

The civilians, in turn, rise up against their government for not protecting them.

If you grow tired of the "mkultra" name - try "useful idiot." That way people will know where you're coming from.

[Purple Avenger]

"Heck, I was at Woodstock!"

That explains a lot.

[jpe]

According to the Dear Leader, people are peaceful when there is the political outlet of democracy. Ergo, none of this is happening. People like Riehl are in the grips of BDS when they say otherwise.

[larry]

so, vis-a-vis the whole "siege of vienna" thing, we can safely asume that the way to beat back radical, "in-a-conquering-mode" islam is to diplomatically negotiate with them. the lesson of history is we must start building bridges to islam, understanding the unique challenges inherent to their preferred styles of barbarism and slavery, *reaching out* to them in the spirit of friendship and togetherness. in short, letting them have their own special prayer rooms in any building where 1 or more moslems works.

that, uh, IS how they were persuaded to leave vienna alone, right?

[Phoenix]

jpe,

Actually, according to Dear Leader, people are usually more peaceful when they've starved to death.

Larry,

You carried the comparison too far. The point is finally someone is saying 'enough'. Whether it is successful or not is the action: the symbolism of the stand is momentous.

[mkultra]

"If you grow tired of the "mkultra" name - try "useful idiot." That way people will know where you're coming from."

Good comeback. I know you are but what am I?

So when the side you agree with marches in the street, it's democracy. When the other side does it, it is the end of Western Civilzation. Right.

See the problem with demoracy is that it can produce results we don't like. See., e.g., Chavez.

What I can't figure out is why you have such a problem with Shia terroris groups. Your boy Bush is meeting this week with the head of another Shia terrorist outfit, SCIRI. You know SCIRI. They drill holes in the heads of people they don't like. Kill women, children for political purposes. You know, it's called terrorism.

Show some consistency, man. Useful idiot indeed.

[Purple Avenger]

"When the other side does it..."

Very democratic group the Hezb. Their approach to dispute resolution has always impressed me. Who could argue with the fundamentally democratic principles of a car bomb?

[seekeronos]

Heh. "Dispute resolution" indeed.

Car bombs are not particularly democratic. But then again, neither is that entire region. They are simply unequipped to practice representative democracy in the fashion that we are accustomed to... because they are a barbaric society whose religion precludes any notion of human rights or decency. And, it would take a reformation of Islam as a whole, and several hundred years of cultural evolution to even set the stage for anything parallel to Northern European or American style democracy to be seen as a pleasant alternative to the tribalisms and sectarianisms that rule these crazed people.

There are really two options for dealing with that region: complete disengagement (let Israel deal with it, and retrench back to Fortress America) ... or steam roller the entire region with thermonuclear weaponry (from the Nile to the Afghanistan, letting Israel colonize the radioactive remains of everything west of the Euphrates per the Promise of Abraham).

Let the Russkies and the Chi-coms have Iran and Afghanistan; The Japanese can take Indonesia, and the other Allies (USA/UK/AUS/NZ/CAN) will take the other Saudi, Yemen and Quatar etc...

Yup, I said it. Unless these people can be made to part company with a murderous death cult in short order (that is, before THEY have widely acquired nuclear technology) ... extermination i.e. justifiable genocide may well be the only option to ensure OUR survival.

Darwin may or may not be right on evolution, but natural selection seems to apply here: if it comes down to it (and I honestly think it will in the next 20 years) Western civilization - as a superior civilization - has the right to survive in place of Islamic civilization.

Because mark my words... once they have the nuclear cat in the bag... it won't be very long till it is let loose over our cities. Otherwise, if we deal with a slack hand, we will do so to our own destruction.

[Carol Herman]

All kidding aside; logistics is still going to be a problem.

I remember Catch-22. A war we won. Told a bit skewed, from the prospective of a foot soldier. Moving around lots of supplies is tough.

Yes. Nasrallah gets great press! Those 6 years spend? Where he built missiles into living rooms? You've been told he's replaced his stash. But I've only read it. I'm not so sure you can move all that stuff by mule. Over bombed out roads. Laden with roadside bombs. (Which even the french are now driving over.)

As I said. The french may solve the problem. And, give the "steet people," or the "tent city people" what they'll need to survive. Food and water. As well as toilets. In very crowded surroundings. And, not everybody in Lebanon "likes" everybody else. Once can supposed nasrallah is in one of his strongholds. Again, PROVING THE LIE THAT ISRAEL blew everything up. According to the Green Helmet Guy.

ANd, it's possible? Nasrallah is waiting for James Baker to green light assad. SO the neighborhood stays rotten. And, one would suspect "one wrong move by the Jews," and Bush wags his finger at Olmert, too.

Other than that? This summer, Israel took 32-seconds to follow in the Captain, who took a few guys on a stunt ride. Israel didn't want to have to do the usual "ransom for kidnapped soldiers" schtick, it already produced only the bones of Ron Arad. (There were two raids deep into the Ba'kakta Valley. Israel did not find her two soldiers IN the hospital. (I've read rumors they were kept in the Iranian embassy. Then in the Palace of Lahoud. But the COMPUTERS taken by the raiding party were very instructive to the IDF. They know more than they are letting on. Including all the thousands of nasrallah troops that "didn't come out so good."

Again? Nasrallah has the press. And, we get their propaganda.

And, on a personal level, since 37 years ago, there was a Woodstock. It held easily 60,000 people. In tents. No toilets. And, while I was comfortable enough; I went with a friend recently discharged from Nam. So he explained to me how "one goes to the bathroom in the woods." Okay. I couldn't do it. But then I learned from Derek, that it took him a month in Nam. Before he learned how to live like a "native."

You're saying all these people are "motivated." And, all by himself, with very little supports, is Saniora. Could be true? But I don't buy propaganda. And, because Catch-22 made me laugh out loud, I know keeping supplies so they get to the troops, had a lot of side "issues" to it that were very, very funny. Really. Catch-22! (I love the TRUTH on the wild side.)

We're into, what? Day One, here? And, yes. Nasrallah has co-opted ALL of the Cedar Revolution SYMBOLS. Clever. Especially because he has an audience who follow the propaganda.

I've yet to see PR win a thing. If the underpinnings aren't sound. (I also remember the "street scenes" from the Ukraine. So full of hope. And, it was COLD outside! WHile the Lebanese have better weather. (But enemies, too, no?) No one lurking beyond the perimeter? Waiting for the crowds to lose their juice?

Oh, the "nuke suitcase threat." One thing's obvious about Livenenko's untimely passing. Some idiot (not a scientist) opened millions of dollars worth of polonium. Couldn't smell it. Or taste it. You didn't have chemistry teachers when you went to school, who weren't all over you when you were handling "chemicals?" What happens when safety is disregarded? We know those people hate. We're also told about how they "seeth." But we don't know much about how they cooperate. Or, let's say, what happens, if nasrallah gets so nasty he orders the parliament building burnt down?

Now, I'm just asking. All we can do is wait and see. As this whole thing plays out. Where would you put the "Catch-22" rule?

[Carol Herman]

This article is posted up at Ha'Aretz. Victim is SHi'ite.

Demonstrator killed in Beirut clash between Shiites, Sunnis

[Dan Riehl]

Show some consistency, man.

Show some intelligence and I will. It's an elected government they are trying to bring down in what has already begunto look like thuggery. If you were intellectually honest and supportive of democracy, you wouldn't overlook those facts but, once again, you do because you think it allows you to take a swipe at Bush. And all you've done is make yourself look foolish.

They could wait for the next election, but then they'd lose as far as a majority goes.

[Purple Avenger]

If I take a few hits of blotter will it help in understanding Carol's disjoint scribblings?

Just wondering...

[gahrie]

Purple Avenger: Nope, Been there tried that. I've finally given it up as a hopeless cause.

[larry]

beg to differ with your idea that symbolism is enough to stop islam, phoenix. aside from the old "symbolize in one hand, & crap in the other, & see which one fills up first" thing, remember we're dealing with MOSLEMS here. they respond quite well to brute force - applied repeatedly and frequently - not so good to mere symbolic acts.

otherwise , the mere fact that we took kuwait/iraq in spectacularly, stunningly easy fashion should have been 'symbolic' enough to make them to behave themselves. hasn't worked, has it. there are certain parts of the world where subtlety and symbolism work quite well as political action.

the middle east ain't one of them.

[Phoenix]

Larry,

I have no argument with your statements at all. I agree with you. I'm all for what seekeronos suggested. But until that happens, any sign that people in the Muslim world are taking steps/stands for change, I'm all for it - even if it comes in symbolic fashion. (I also hope what seekeronos posits does not happen...)

Meanwhile, pass the blotter.... :}

[seekeronos]

I hope what I posited (sp?) doesn't come to pass either. But on the scale of things likely to stop the Islamic Jihad against everyone else... I do see too many alternatives that will work.

* Diplomacy is at best, a stalling game. The more we back off and retrench or appease, the more the Islamist see that they can bully, cajole and threaten until they are placated "but for a moment".

* The occupation that is handicapped by political correctness and restraint for fear of aggravating the Saudis (oil supply) has resulted in our soldiers being not much more than a paper tiger in the eyes of the insurgents. They know that we are not likely to shoot down a ten-year old boy who is used as a frontline soldier against them. Furthermore, they know that historically, Americans are very adverse to protracted warfare. To them, it is a waiting game as long as we refuse to engage in the (sic) extreme measures required to win this war.

* I'd have loved to have seen us bowl through there in 2003 followed by a wagon train of food and Southern Baptist preachers and missionaries leading thousands of Iraqis to Christ... but that is not likely to happen. It is too bad... the average underclass Iraqi in 2003 was probably quite spiritually hungry for something other than Islam, if he could purse it without fear of the Sharia police coming about to forcibly remove his head from his shoulders.

Of course, the mosques would have had to have been razed to the ground and several churches built... but those sorts of Crusader tactics would be much frowned upon by the intelligentsia in our government, to say nothing of the sharks in the ACLU.

* Complete, unilateral disengagement i.e. "cut and run" will also be a failure, as the entire region degenerates into chaos. Ultimately, a Shiite Islamic Republic of Iraq would emerge, with splinter Sunni groups supported by the Saudis in the southwestern (former) marshlands, and a restive and very bitter Kurd population in the north (bitter for seeing the USA leave them high and dry again - the first time was in Gulf War I).

In the long range of it all, we would see Iraq's oil wealth under Iran's control, and a Euro-based oil bourse to control it (which was one of the Bush Administration's many objectives for intervening in Iraq: to prevent Saddam from destabilising the dollar with the Euro-Petroleum Bourse).

* The "Glass Parking Lot" solution is really the only effective solution that will prevent a much greater holocaust of billions if the Iran/Al Qaeda axis achieves its goal of establishing a regional ME caliphate (much less its ultimate goal of a global one).

Unless Islam has some kind of spiritual awakening fast enough (say, ten minutes ago) to reproduce the results parallel to the reformation in the mediaeval Catholic Church minus four hundred years of Protestant/Catholic bloodshed in the interim... I do not foresee the majority of so-called muslim moderates acting to check the insanity of the mad mullahs extremists.

[Phoenix]

Seek,

I've been feeling guilty all day about saying I agree with your scorched-earth policy. It's odd, though, because when I said it, I meant it. I tried to rationalize why, after saying time and time again that we can't judge the many by the few, etc., that I agree to your idea. I was ashamed of myself.

Krauthammer and Bill Kristol are my 'heroes', and even they are losing what equanimity they've held onto up until recently. Anyway, I don't know where I'm going with this other than to make a comparison of a third-grade teacher trying to be nice to a class of screaming kids and suddenly losing her cool and screaming at the top of her voice to make it stop.

I'm mixing psychological and political metaphors here, but I sure wish our national psyche would start screaming 'Stop' and get in there and scorch some earth.

I'm running of steam because I feel sorry for the innocents.... too damn sad. Your last paragraph sums it up.