This just can't end well. Michael Totten is reporting some unsettling developments in Lebanon. When I saw Hezbollah resigned from the government, I assumed something was up. It looks to be the case.
Add this below to reports of Iran possibly hooking up with al Qaeda in pursuit of Uranium from Africa - and their ability to strike Israel - and Israel's determination to not allow Iran to go nuclear ... and you have more than the makings of a perfect storm. You have the makings of World War III.
Meanwhile, a group that calls itself “Al Qaeda in Lebanon” appeared from Lord-only-knows-where and directly threatened to destroy the March 14 government. “Al Qaeda in Lebanon” may or may not exist as a wing of bin Laden’s Al Qaeda. If they do, they’re serious. If they don’t, they’re a Syrian proxy. Either way, it doesn’t look good. This is not a prank phone call.
These threats to Beirut’s elected government are concurrent with Hezbollah’s and Amal’s resignation from the Lebanese cabinet. Hezbollah and Amal quit for two reasons. The first is that the March 14 bloc refused to give Nasrallah and friends who lost last year’s election more power in a “national unity” government. The second is because it was time for the cabinet to move ahead on the Hariri tribunal. Hezbollah will not tolerate the prosecution of their patron in Damascus.
This is simple. Perhaps the only simple situation in world politics. Lebanon has no defenders. It is bordered by Israel which will not, really cannot, defend it and Muslim states who, at best, do not care.
Lebanon is mostly Arab and Muslim. There is a substantial Christian community. The recognized Lebanese government has no real authority or strength but still pretends to govern. The Christian community has been growing steadily weaker relative to the Muslims for decades. It pins its hopes upon the government.
It is clearly time for the Muslims to take the free lunch. Only jockeying between Syria, Iran, and the Lebanonese Muslims about power remains to be settled. The US is clearly leaving Iraq, there will be no further Bush military ventures in the area.
It is somewhat ironic that a non-trivial UN command, led by the French, seems determined to oppose any Israeli action into Lebanon but has no other concern about the destruction of that government or the nation.
Posted by: k | Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 02:13 PM
The simplicity is that Israel won't succumb to international 'image' next time. Perfect storm is right.
Posted by: Phoenix | Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 08:09 PM