Predictions Anyone

ALF picks here.

The Squiggler draws on her campaign experience to pick Steele in MD. I haven't called specific races, but I wouldn't be surprised to see enough supprt in the Black community to pull him through. I hope so.

Update: AJ Strata's picks. If a blogger sends any in, I'll update with a link.

I spent about two hours reading everything I could find new dealing with predictions for tomorrow. Interesting how many people have backed off the whole Dem wave deal. Not Kos, of course, he lists it as likely. I mention that as it appears to me that everyone is guilty of bias in their projections, most like unintentional in many cases, though not in all. Both Party's use predictions to manipulate the base.

I'm reminded of the adage don't talk politics at the table. No matter how much we look at numbers, it's still an affair of the heart. Even more so for the die hards you'll find pontificating in the blogosphere. Naturally, I consider myself one.

Are my picks biased? Probably. Funny thing is, I tried to be conservative and didn't put too much into the recent news of the generic vote sliding towards the R's. Populations vary across districts making it a weak indicator. Where I've ended up is only slightly more positive than where I've been for some time.

I can pretty much pinpoint where my bias comes into play. I am accustomed to the media and associated pollsters underestimating the GOP vote. And from looking at the two party's Ground Games, the Dems are unproven at running a more sophisticated approach. I give the R's an edge in that but admit I could be proved wrong. I'm worried, in Virginia, for instance, that a good ground game wasn't put in place early enough as the race shouldn't have been this competitive.

If my instincts are right, it's 60/40 the Dems take the House by a slim margin and they don't get the Senate. My most likely scenario does give them the House, but not by much.

The two marginal plays -  a Dem wave, or we all come away having been fooled and the Dems don't get more than 2 in the Senate and 12 or less in the House. I think there's an equal outside chance of either happening.

I think the Dems pick up between 2 - 4 in the Senate, the GOP retains control.

I think the Dems pick up a net of from 13 - 18 seats, making for a slim majority either way - most likely Dem.

Bottom-line? Who the hell knows. That's why we vote. If you're an R or a conservative, make sure you do. If you're a Lib, do America a favor and stay home.

Here's a link via Drudge on what to look for tomorrow.

Comments

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I have made my one and only election prediction on Michael Steele for Senate in Maryland:

http://www.squiggler.com/2006/11/my_one_and_only.html

and my reasons why. And no, the polls have nothing to do with it.

If anyone lives in the PA 12th and has a finger on the pulse there, please get in touch. I spoke to the Irey campaign today, and they are so upbeat it is almost scary.

[Physics Geek]

I made my predictions here:

http://physicsgeek.mu.nu/archives/204172.php

Now it's on to the actual votes.

[Skyboxx]

I agree the Dems will take the house and by a slim margin. Shame really, because the GOP did this to themselves with the attempt to sell Port Authority security to Dubai, the scandals, Michael Foley, etc. People are angry and don't want to or won't vote. The Dems are much better at getting their base to the polls. Pies, dinners, you name it. Remember in 2000? Jesse Jackson was flown to Philadelphia and he went street by street with a throng, banging on doors to get people out and to the polls on election day.

Give them credit, they are passionate. If middle America gets out and votes today the GOP has a chance. Oh well, onward to 2008. At least Kerry fell on his sword for the Skull and Bones crowd. He won't be running in 2008 either.

[Rick]

"At least Kerry fell on his sword for the Skull and Bones crowd."

Remember when it was just soooo awful that GW belonged to that horrible lil club? All that animos just disappeared when we learned Kerry was there first.