Poll-imania

Captain's Quarters takes a closer look at the internals of the Pew Poll and sees several reasons to smile:

The last Pew Research poll was taken in early October. In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing. White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead. The Democrats have also lost the middle class, a big problem in this election.

Plenty more good news at the link, the analysis is sound, what I don't get is what's going on behind the scenes with the polls. Color me suspicious, but how many people have been pumping a big Dem wave for a month and are now forced to get realistic so as to not blow their credibility post-election.

Another option would be that Foley was taking a big toll during previous polling and the electorate has now washed it out of its collective mind. Whatever the case, momentum certainly appears to be in favor of the GOP. Ultimately, this may prove to be nothing more than your average 6 year itch election, where the party in power often takes a big hit.

Unfortunately, it only needs to be big enough for the Dems to take the House. My fears all along in that regard have more to do with the trouble they'll cause distracting from the GWOT and positioning themselves to take the White House in 08. We'll be looking at two years of political hits backed by subpoena power, with a whole mess of shoes dropping at the last minute to make the R's look corrupt.

The consequences for this election are huge. But I'm unconvinced the average voter thinks that far ahead. See link above for those positive internals, then vote ... and pray.

Comments

[Ed Muntin]

"to make the R's look corrupt."

Oh, that would be unpossible!

[Bob]

That evil Carl Rove is at it again, crushing the hopes of the Dimocrats.

[qwfwq]

The Dems have a big surprise coming Wednesday. It's called the 'November Surprise.'

[daveinboca]

The Dem intelligentsia begins to wring their hands as the polls tighten up. The dervishes on the Lamestream Media twirl and spin and whirl their huckster Dem snake oil cures. All for naught?

In the end, it's the voter who counts and is counted.

Just for laughs, The New Republic has this nugget on the polling:
But, to my mind, the most plausible explanation is that more conservative people tend to stay home on Saturday nights, while more liberal people tend to go out, which would give the poll a slight conservative bias.
Yeah, that's the ticket! But then again, aren't Republicans in bed so early that the phone remains unanswered!

BWAHAHAHAHA!

By the same token, might not "more liberal people" be strung out on drugs and alcohol this Tuesday and forget or neglect to go to the polls?

[Alex]

" ... to make the R's look corrupt."

Yes, the Dems will generate fake bribery checks, fake influence peddling emails and fake quid-pro-quo pork bills by Republicans to make the Rs look corrupt.