Update 4: Took some time to look around at various polls. I'll check them again tomorrow, but right now I do think the Dems are in trouble relative to their previous position. The so-called wave looks off the table. If I had to guess tonight, I'd say they are fighting for something from a 12 - 17 seat gain - 15 gives them a majority in the House. On the Senate side, I think they are on target to pick up from 2 - 4 with no shot at control. That's my gut feeling, but obviously I have a bias which is hard to account for in predictions. But most of the races are at least showing GOP momentum, several with close races.
I'm gambling on some faulty turn out projections built into polling models and a strong GOP GOTV to make this thing close.
Update3: Damn, I don't get it. I have been watching the RCP Senate races for days - everything is shifting slightly toward the R's. Even Dewine went to toss up and I figure he's toast. But I don't like the Tester up 9 poll. The fact is, the polls are all over the place this year and it doesn't seem to be settling in except for showing some R momentum as things stand.
Update 2: Dem allsrats not turning people out in MI? What's with that. I have been wondering why the R's insisted it was still a race. Does someone know something we don't? Damn. I don't know. Sounds strange, but she's up in the polls.
The total lack of a grassroots turnout effort for President Clinton's appearance raises an interesting question: If Debbie Stabenow finds it this difficult to fill a venue for an appearance on her behalf by a former President -- and her Party's current Rock Star -- then how much trouble is she going to have legitimately filling the ballot box on Tuesday?
Update: I'll probably add any new thoughts or links to this post tonight, politically speaking. Of note, if things turn, the Dems never did close the deal by putting forth a positive agenda. They had that 100 hour deal, but most know nothing happens in 100 hours and any spending, or minimum wage increase also impacts the economy, or leads to tax increases.
People often have a moment of clarity when voting. If they haven't been voting Dem in a while, some will likely pause to think. If they think taxes and weak security, I wouldn't be surprised if enough people reconsider to save the Senate and limit the House damage producing a thin majority for one side or the other. Many people don't like voting against a party, they need to know what they are voting for. And Iraq aside, most Americans do not want what the Dems are selling.
I can't remember an election where the polls haven't closed at the end. The key this time around is going to be poll samples versus turn out. Yes, if many pollsters over-sampled Dems, that changes things quite a bit, assuming R's turn out as they have in the past. The Dems also have constituencies which are often more difficult to turn out in off year elections.
How it all plays out is anyone's guess right now.
Allah has a round up here and I linked two others here.
It'll be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow. Oh, and Nancy Pelosi finally showed up. In PA with Casey and CT, I believe.
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