Allen in VA

Fox predicts Delay's seat is gone to the Dems - they get the House.

I'm going on a limb but I'm calling the VA Senate for Allen with 92.43 precincts in:

G F Allen	Republican	1,054,771	49.85%
J H Webb Jr	Democratic	1,035,546	48.94%

I've been following the counties most of the night.

Comments

[Hal]

Looks like one county whose results haven't come in yet is just outside Richmond, which will be heavily Democratic. Allen's margin over Webb has shrunk from 20K to 12K in the last 15 minutes. I wouldn't get too far ahead of these numbers yet.

[la]

what about arlington?

[Dan Riehl]

it's going to be a couple thousand votes but I dont see webb making it all up. That's going on a limb. lol

[Reid]

Fox just mentioned that < 1% allows Webb to request a recount. It could be a month before we know the answer (groan).

[AJ Lynch]

I just looked at the website and thes are the unreported areas/counties and my estimate of votes from each:
Fairfx-4,500
Henrico-3,500
James City-4,000
Loudound- 30,000
Northumberland-1,000
Prince William- 40,000 (yes 40,000)
Richmond - 15,000
Norfolk City- 6,500
A couple other had less than 500 each not yet reported.
That's a total of about 107,000 unreported votes.

Questions - my email is bds2day@yahoo.com
AJ Lynch 1050PM EST

[Ken Adams]

Dan, I fear someone may be sawing that limb off on you. 3rd Congressional district still has 10% of the precincts outstanding -- that could be another 6000 votes for Webb if the current proportions hold. Most of the missing precints are in Richmond City.

Barone was just saying on Fox that he suspects a recount will happen here. He just might be correct.

[Dan Riehl]

That wouldn't surprise me, the margin may be below 1% but Virginia Beach had votes that looked to offset what Webb would get from his remaning counties. No matter what, we are probably looking at a recount.

[Bryan]

Better look again at the unreported localities. Several urban areas are still way less than 80% in. And the unreported votes in Fairfax and Arlington alone could overcome a 10,000 vote lead.

[la]

still 3 more fairfax co. (my home town) precincts to go as well ...

[Jason Coleman]

I think your call is safe Dan.

--Jason

[la]

jim lindgren at volokh.com now predicting a 550-vote webb victory

[Dan Riehl]

It's 13K for allen at 96.60% - I guess we'll see. But I'm not pulling back, like the WaPo has done on Steele. LOL 500 votes?

[po]

Maybe Dan wasn't "looking at the counties" as well as he ought.

[Ivan]

The counties around Richmond will lean Allen...Richmond City is almost all in and overwhelmingly Democrat. I stuck out like a sore thumb voting in d'town RIC this morning in my Air Force flight suit.

[la]

allen needs to pick up the pace in price william and close the gap in loundon ... to make up for fairfax/newport news/norfolk/richmond ... or he's toast

[Dan Riehl]

It looks like the absentees aren't in in Virginia Beach

[Dan Riehl]

Richmond is coming on too late. I hope there are lawyers on the ground. I know it's solid Dem. But the lag is troubling.

[Daryl Herbert]

Our host Dan wrote: "Richmond is coming on too late. I hope there are lawyers on the ground. I know it's solid Dem. But the lag is troubling."

You think they are waiting to see how many votes their man needs, before they release their results?

[Jay]

look at Dan with the Malkin/Fox mention minutes ago!

[Gil]

Don't be so sure that Allen won.....

[Ken Adams]

Many of the open precincts are central absentees. This may not have 100% in until lunchtime tomorrow, then the recount battle can start.

[physics geek]

I've been watching this race all night. It's not doing wonders for my digestion.

Does anyone know if there are any absentee ballots still to be counted? If not, this could have an ugly finish.

[vastrightwinger]

2% left in VA, with the traditionally Republican absentee ballots left to be counted. I think it is too early to call it, but I seriously doubt Webb will win.

[po]

Probably won't matter, as it looks like Missouri and Montana are likely to go with Democratic Senators...

[vastrightwinger]

physics geek, you're right, this will likely have an ugly finish. I don't see Webb and the loony left going down without a fight. I predict we'll see a replay of FLA 2000 with the Lib lawyers trying to get absentee ballots tossed out.

[Redstate]

CONGRATULATIONS ON MAKING THE NEWS TONIGHT. YOUR PAGE VIEW WAS ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL TONIGHT.
MICHELLE MAULKIN REFERENCED YOUR PAGE AND SHOWED IT ON SCREEN AS YOU CALLING ALLEN WINNING. Keep up the good work. You really are appreciated.

[Roger]

It is down to 3000 votes with more than 2% left. Many remaining precincts are blue. This is going down to the wire. I think Webb's going to pull it out.

[vastrightwinger]

Actually, it's 6,000+ votes with less than 2% left.

[po]

Great thing about the internet is as soon as Dan posted his prediction, everybody was here to fact check it.... seems like some of the earliest commenters did a great job and knew their counties very, very well.

[la]

absentee ballots have apparently been counted in this race: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTNhMmMzNTBjNDRhN2UxYTg2Y2MzM2I3ZjMzYWMwZTg=

webb wins ... sorry folks

[Ken Adams]

11:57 PM -- the write-ins (2263) now exceed the margin (1757). Pardon me for a short Howard Dean moment, but Yeeeeeaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[po]

Less than 2000 votes now....

[Berry]

OH NO, ALLEN IS LOSING NOW!

[chrys]

Michelle loves ya Dan!! Looked good. Can you give it to Steele! Remember the Iraq problem Lieberman had? If Iraq was the "be all - end all" Lieberman wouldn't be so far ahead?!? My brain is cryiing (whatever that means?)

[Dan Riehl]

Hey, TKS said it was in the bag. LOL How many votes were manufactured late in Richmond? I hope VA Beach is holding out a few, too. LOL This is going to be 2004 all over again

[jaime]

Riehl seems to have pulled this bogus Allen prediction out of the same place the Democratic boot is headed.

So, I expect the wacky right wing tin foil hat sore losers to pull an Al Gore and cry all the way to court.

[po]

Bye Bye to the Senate...

VA gone
MT gone
MO gone
RI gone
PA gone
OH gone

[Ken Adams]

jaime, I love it when Democrats project. Give me some more!

[SinQ]

Allen Lost

[jaime]

Democrats are projecting a Blue Wave, that's what they project.

So out of the mainstream. No wonder Republicans cant win elections.

[vastrightwinger]

Not over yet. Still several strong Allen districts haven't reported yet.

[po]

vastrightwringer, name them.

[la]

everyone take a chill pill ... the cnn numbers have been off all night.

real numbers are here: http://www.sbe.vipnet.org/

still show allen with a small lead ... with mostly dem counties left to report

recount ...

[jaime]

"recount..."

Sore losers. Al Gore would be proud.

[po]

la, incorrect.

CNN's number are quicker than the state, they get them direct from stringers and don't wait for the state to certify...

[larry]

just wanna make sure i've got this right: so jamey ADMITS gore was a lawsuit happy whiny little girlyman? and, by extension, he admits the entire scumocrat party is full of the same?

wow. not often you get an admission like that from a self-loathing kneejerk leftwing tool.

wait till the gop ties the house in knots, just like the scummies did. this'll be FUN!

[yyy]

As I remember Al Gore did not demand a recount, but let Bushie slide into office with his stolen votes in Florida and Ohio.

If only he had....

[jaime]

"so jamey ADMITS gore was a lawsuit happy whiny little girlyman?"

Ummm...no. If you recall, the name of the suit was Bush V. Gore.

Also...It's nice to hear Republicans complain about black box voting, disenfranchisement, and counting every vote. 6 years ago it was whiny sore loser tin foil hat talk. Welcome to reality.

[WisePiper]

You all have been enormously entertaining, but the humor is wearing thin. Your Christo-Fascist agenda has FINALLY been soundly repudiated across the nation. Time now to crawl back under your rocks and STFU. Good riddance.

[larry]

it usually takes an event of this magnitude for scumocrats to drop their 'reasonable' masks, and show us who they really are.

and, reading all this, it seems they really are not very classy. ah, well, i suppose it's to be expected. what else can ya expect from a party whose playbook starts with:
1) when in doubt, lie
2) in close elections, demand recounts until you're ahead - like wa. state - and then stop
3) when in doubt, sue
4) voter fraud? sure!

enjoy it while you can, scummies. you clowns didn't win yesterday - the gop idiots lost. see you in 2 years.

PS - please, please, pretty please run hillary for prez.