Why Ford Could Be In Trouble In TN

The conventional wisdom is that the Corker / Ford race is a toss up, RCP has Corker up within the MOE at 2.3%.

But I looked at the recent Survey USA poll that has the race a dead heat. Both candidates are getting about 90% of the vote from their respective parties, with Independents going 50 - 40 for Corker with 10% undecided. But the real key may be in the party break down used for the poll.

Survey USA went with what looks like the National party affiliation breakdown. But kicking over to CNN's results from 2004 for Tennessee paints a very different picture of the TN vote.

Survey USA:      R - 37%    D - 38%    I - 21%

2004 TN Vote:    R - 40%    D - 32%    I - 28%

If the 2004 pattern is more accurate regarding what we see next week, Corker picks up about 2.5 pts. from more R's and maybe 1.5 from I's, while Ford loses 4-5 pts. with fewer D's. It looks like turn out is going to be the key but I'm thinking advantage Corker and more than current polls show.

Adjusted, Ford could be down by from 5 - 8 pts. conservatively.

Comments

[Felix]

To repeat myself, the partisan breakdown of the '06 electorate is not going to look anything like the partisan breakdown of the '04 electorate. That's why you folks are in so much trouble this year.

Even Rasmussen, whose weighting is most favorable to the GOP, has far more Dems in his '06 LV sample than he did in his '04 LV sample.

There are two things going on here:

1) Partisan affiliations among all adults have shifted pretty drastically away from the GOP over the past 12 months. Most of the shift has gone to indies, not Dems. But there are still far fewer Republicans than there were in '04.

2) Democrats are MUCH more likely to vote this year than Republicans are.

Put those things together, and the partisan breakdown next Tuesday is going to blow your mind.

Charlie Cook had a national poll out today that had separated out Most Likely Voters from Likely Voters. The MLV partisan breakdown was 41D / 29R / 27I. I don't think things are going to be quite that extreme next Tuesday, but it ought to give you a sense of just how bad Tuesday's results are going to be for your side.

All that said, you may still win TN, and you may still keep the Senate. The South is the one area you guys still haven't melted down in yet, and we need some wins in the South to take the Senate. We can win 40 House seats without the South, but we can't win the Senate without it.

[Dan Riehl]

via RedState: Keep Dreaming

Among likely voters, the poll showed Corker with 52% of the vote to Ford’s 44% and among all registered voters surveyed, Corker led 47% to 44%. For the survey 1,100 registered voters were interviewed and 550 identified themselves as likely voters. The sampling error for likely voters was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for registered voters, plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Felix]

Like I said, TN is a reach for us.

The Senate in general is a reach for us this year.

The serious carnage will be in the House.

-----

And along with my theory of the South being your only bulwark this year, they just released Bush's sked, and he's going to:

- Georgia
- Texas
- Georgia (again)

These three stops are useful to you folks, but then they're making a mistake by sending him on to:

- Montana
- Nevada

Where he'll help us elect some more Mountain State Dems. If I were Rove, I'd either keep Bush locked in the basement for the next week, or just let him roam the Confederacy. In the rest of the nation, he's the Dem's best surrogate by far.

[wjo]

In Tennessee we have a state constitutional amendment defining marriage on the ballot. Ford and Corker have been in support of this amendment. However, the fact it is there will pull those who are supportive of it (an overwhelming majority in this state) to come out to vote on it. The peculiarities of our state constitution's amendment formula requires a respectable vote, based on the vote in the Governor's race. However, this favors Corker more than Ford because the folks supportive of the amendment tend to be more R than D.Felix's analysis may hold nationally, but the dynamics of state politics must be figured in. The interesting aspect of this will be what Middle Tennessee does. Nashville and environs are booming economically, and become less and less Southern (i.e., newcomers without any attachment to traditional political divisions)all the time. Memphis and West Tennessee along with East Tennessee are not as volatile politically. If Ford does well in Nashville, he can win.

[wjo]

Felix:

That attitude is why you keep losing the South. If you could understand that it is culture and values not racism that detaches most Southerners from the Democratic Party, you might make inroads. Ah, but the dictatorship of relativism must be obeyed and all non-KoolAid drinkers excommunicated. Bedeck your chains with flowers and call it freedom.

We will likely re-elect Governor Bredesen (born in New York) by a wide margin in this Confederate state. I guess he has stealthily appealed to our incipent racism/homophobia/insanity by speaking in the Code words that set our Pavlovian pea brains on mindless obedience.

[SurveyUSA]

Just to set the record straight: SurveyUSA, like many pollsters, does not weight to party identification.

There's some interesting commentary about the topic here: http://www.pollster.com/faq/should_pollsters_weight_by_par.php