What About North Korea?

Joe Katzman spells it out rather clearly here. The real problem isn't North Korea, so much as it is China. And the consequences are more subtle and long range.

But I'd take a different approach, a step further then what Joe suggests, one I know our politicians will never do. I wouldn't allow or encourage Japan, Taiwan and S Korea to develop Nukes. I'd place American nukes there within six months by selling them outright. Let China choke on that.

They are not a self destructive regime.

And if you wince over that, then you fail to understand the strength of N Korea. They don't need nukes to deter America. They have a million man army to do that. It and not their missiles are the greatest strategic threat to the region when it comes to N Korea. And only WMD in some fashion could hope to counter it, were it ever to go on the march.

True, those million troops could not fight an extended war due to low provisioning. And our advanced weaponry could defeat them ... but talk about cost. They'd likely fight more like ants than anything else. If they over ran S Korea, you'd never be able to get them out. And the damage they'd cause in the interim would set regional relations back a hundred years.

Comments

[ajacksonian]

Unfortunately US Nukes would be seen as 'fungible' and also tend to go against the grain of the local populations. Agreeing to have US forces based in Taiwan or increased in Japan is not a winner these days, and we have handed over the defense of South Korea to them, also. Increased US presence will *not* do anything save harden China's opinion as they will be getting *our* attention. This legitimizes their actions against a *hostile* US that is 'encroaching into Asia'. Much, much better to let the industrious peoples of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to actually call China's bluff. China does *not* want a militarily resurgent Japan: all of their long-range plans count on a pacifistic Japan that will barely defend herself. Put in a robust defense for Japan and the entire situation changes. Ditto with Aegis technology and nuclear help to South Korea and Taiwan. South Korea is on the 'firing line' and not standing up FOR a long-time Friend and Ally is, in this instance, deserting them. They have made it clear they want to step up to the plate and care for themselves and we should help them. A robustly defended South Korea suddenly throws a spanner into China's long-term plans from that realm.

And Taiwan may not declare independence... but they are a bitter and nasty pill to try and swallow. China, for all the numbers of soldiers it has, does not have aerial insertion nor sea insertion capabilities against US made and bought weaponry that Taiwan uses. Up the ante, give them *better* ASW, Aegis and some hints that a *stable* Taiwan is not seen as a threat and that will be the kicker. Taiwan will *not* become part of China by force and with the means to repel an invasion for decades, China will finally realize that it *must* deal with North Korea.

This is the Nuclear Neighborhood option: China wants an ally that is nuclear armed, then so do WE. We stand up for and with our friends and allies, and if China likes nuclear proliferation on their doorstep so much, then let us hand it to those Nations that are *responsible* and good world citizens. China saved North Korea and it is *their* problem. Our responsibility is to help our friends and allies defend themselves. After AQ Khan and now North Korea the NPT is dead. Time to help threatened friends and allies to make their own defenses and help them as best we can.

We can a fight a 10 front war, so long as 8 are nuclear - Steven Den Beste

Let us not open up fronts when we may need those 8 for *important* work.

[Phoenix]

Ajacksonian,

"Agreeing to have US forces based in Taiwan or increased in Japan is not a winner these days,..." I think this mindset has changed dramatically. Japan *does* enjoy having our aircraft carriers/nuked-up ships in international waters just off their coast. And who knows about subs. We haven't turned over South Korea to them - we have our base there yet, so there must be quiet negotiations going on. I also believe increased U.S. presence in the area is just what China is hoping for. Anything to get the ball out of their court. They are in the position of realizing the delights of capitalism for the first time, and the last thing they want is to sacrifice gains for losers like the North Koreans. Better if it all looks like someone else's problem to solve and then they can cheer and clap and make nice with the winners. Twenty-five years from now we'll still be talking about Taiwan and what a nice, robust country it is. We will see to that. Just because the Japanese have been quiet for a while, does not mean they'll not turn into a tiger when the threat comes too close.