WaPo Skews Poll Against Steele

Updated: What a crock.

Obviously the WaPo had the poll done precisely for the headline "Democrats Lead" ten days out from the election. And the party ID numbers below are all from Maryland, not national numbers. They over sampled Democrats by 8 points based upon voting trends just two years ago.

The Washington Post has released a new poll purporting to show Michael Steele trailing Ben Cardin by eleven points in the Maryland Senate race.

                   Cardin   Steele      
10/26/06 LV     54         43

The poll of likely voters over sampled Democrats by 8 points based upon election results from 2004.

Party affiliation for the new WaPo poll:

                  Dem.     Rep.     Ind.     Something else     No opinion
10/26/06 RV   56        30       11             3                       1

Party affiliation as per exit polling in 2004, which in itself may have been a skewed sample given that the exit polls were so far off the mark in many states:

Democrat (48%) 

Republican (30%) 

Independent (22%)

A recent Rassmussen poll had Cardin up by 5, while a Survey USA poll had the race tied - via Real Clear Politics. With two seemingly skewed WaPo polls in the RCP average adjusted and including the two other polls, it's quite possible the race is a dead heat.

Comments

[Alex]

Dan,
You do know the difference between national and local polls, right?

Like, you know there's a difference between the number of people who are registered as Democrats nationally and the number of people who are registered as Democrats in Maryland, one of the bluest states in the country?

Nevermind, I don't know why I'm even bothering...

[Felix]

"Party affiliation as per exit polling in 2004, which in itself may have been a skewed sample given that the exit polls were so far off the mark in many states:"

The '04 exit polling was recalibrated against the actual results, leading to pretty reliable results.

"The poll of likely voters over sampled Democrats by 8 points based upon election results from 2004."

Pretty much all polling done this year has shown a higher percentage of Dems among all registered voters than there were in '04. Rasmussen's party ID balancing is likely to mean than they are overweighting GOP voters a bit this year.

And furthermore, pretty much all recent polling has shown Dems more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. This has the effect of making the likely voter pool MUCH more Democratic than it was in '04.

In short, if you're expecting the same partisan breakdown in the '06 electorate that there was in the '04 electorate, you're going to be very disappointed.

Don't believe me? You can get 5-1 odds on Steele at Tradepsports. Those are AMAZING odds if the race is truly a dead heat.

[jaime]

Dan's just trying to work the refs.

[Rick]

What's hilarious about Maryland is that it isnt a race of your rich white guy against my rich white guy for the pleasure of doing the bidding of other rich white guys. Now the question is since the dems can't call Steele a racist. Will they again show their true selves by calling him uncle tom, et al?????

[Felix]

"Dan's just trying to work the refs."

Perhaps. But if so, it strikes me as a fundamental misunderstanding of politics.

Republicans aren't less likely to vote because they're behind in the polls. They're less likely to vote because they're unhappy with the state of Republican government.

[Captain Joe]

WaPo prolly does a similar trick to its circulation numbers, too.

[Dan Riehl]

national and local polls

Click the links, idiot. Those are all Maryland numbers, including exit polls.

[Ahahaa]

Ahahahahahaha! Nice one Dan! Ahahahahahaha!

Via your friend:
Steele 684,618 (43.7%)
Cardin 855,563 (54.7%)

Whoahahahahaha! Why don't you just quit now? Loser.

http://tbogg.blogspot.com/2006/11/great-moments-in-knowing-nothing-about.html

[All Your Base]

Time for our Bushworld catechism

War is Peace
Slavery is Freedom
Saddam is al-Qaeda
11 points is a dead heat.