It appears that may be the case. The US arrested a high ranking member of the Mehdi Army and Moqtada Sadr is said to be planning a massive protest tomorrow. He has thousands of men under arms. The US has recently turned up the heat on Iraqi PM Maliki to start dealing with precisely this type of threat.
"US forces raided the home of Sheikh Mazen Al Saedi, head of the Sadr movement offices in Karkh [west Baghdad] and arrested him," Hamdallah Al Rikabi, a spokesman for Sadr's movement, said. "Five other members of the office were arrested as well in a series of raids in Shuala," he said, referring to a Shiite neighborhood in northeast Baghdad.
US forces were at Sadrs back door with orders to take him one way or another. Then Maliki called it all off. If 'they' would just let our forces clean up the mess, the process would move forward.
Posted by: hobo | Tuesday, October 17, 2006 at 10:30 PM
This comes off the back of an incident about two weeks ago. US and IA went to arrest a Mahdi cappo in a town south of Baghdad. He resisted arrest, a firefight broke out, five to seven baddies dead and no friendly casualties. They locked down the town and Mahdi irregulars were trying to sneak past the roadblocks to get out of town.
Remember, Warner&Co. just visited and Condi followed them close behind, all with the same message. "Maliki, put your house in order or we will do it for you and you won't like the outcomes." Sadr is a part of his governing coalition. He has control of some ministries. This was "to bring him into the political process". Maliki has been afraid of Sadr withdrawing and it's ramifications for the parliamentary coalition. (Serves 'em right for choosing such a lousy iteration of democratic governance.)
My sense is that when the Iraqis have pressed for time it was to coax Sadr further in or to isolate him. This may be the start of the last big fight. If it is, look for news on the Badr Brigade (the Iranian backed militia) front as well. We already know they've turned the tribal chiefs in Anbar against the al-Qaeda guys.
One thing I'm worried about is Baker and his buddies in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Iran. He's their man in Washington. Watch him close cause he may try to scuttle the democracy in the midst of this last fight in order to retain the old order in the region. Watch for his "Oh God, it's all gone to hell" when the last fight starts. It'll be the Tet Offensive strategy. Make a victory seem like a defeat and end the chances for democracy. He seems to be setting the stage for it right now and that may be because he sees the Iraqi's willingness to assert themselves. At the end of the year we go back to the UN with the Iraqis to renew the Coalition mandate for another year. He'll look to strike the killing blow there. Everything else is just setting the media and political stage for that act.
By year's end we'll know the fate of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq and the broader Middle East. Democracy: Yes or No?
Posted by: The Apologist | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 05:19 AM
"By year's end we'll know the fate of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq and the broader Middle East. Democracy: Yes or No?"
Year's end??? Since 2001 the answer is still, we will not, we cannot win and there will never be democracy among those people. Sorry.
Posted by: Rick | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 08:23 AM
"...there will never be democracy among those people."
There already is Rick. They have a constitution drafted by an elected drafting parliament, they have a standing representative government, and they have spent the last year negotiating the way forward politically.
We have already won. Iraq is a democracy. Sadaam is gone. What's left is the securing of a victory which has already been achieved. Ensuring that when we turn our back and head for home it can stand even after we've left. Bringing Sadr and the Sunni refuseniks into government is meant to avoid large scale killing. The IA will be able to stand all on it's own by the end of '07/beginning of '08. What will be decided at year's end this year is whether Bush can hold out against those arrayed against him inside the US government and in wider America.
Posted by: The Apologist | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 05:59 PM
Apologist most Americans have a far different view of what the current situation in Iraq is.
Iraq is the number one reason that people will use to decide their vote in the next election.
Posted by: JOHN RYAN | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 07:18 PM
Apologist: You're absolutely correct in your statement. But the "democracy" created by the Iraqis will crumble in less than six months after we leave. It will become a sham government like that of Lebanon while the sunni's kill the shiites and vice versa except for when they gang up on the kurds. Sorry sir, it was an ill advised campaign that took resources better used in Afghanistan.
Posted by: Rick | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 08:06 PM
There already is Rick. They have a constitution drafted by an elected drafting parliament, they have a standing representative government, and they have spent the last year negotiating the way forward politically
NONE OF OUR FUCKING BUSINESS. WHO CARES?
Posted by: basil | Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 10:37 PM