NYT's Stats - Republicans Will Hold Senate

h/t to Tom Maguire for the link to the New York Times election guide. If it's right, the Republicans should hold the Senate.

According to the Times, you can read some details at both links above, if the Reps win only three of thirteen contested races, they'd have fifty seats in the Senate.

Kyl is up by 9 in Arizona according to RCP and has $7 Million in the bank, as opposed to $1.5 for Pederson, who has been outspending Kyl just to stay close.

McCaskill and Talent are even in Missouri, but RedState recently posted some real unpleasantness for McCaskill. And Talent is sitting on $7 million, as opposed to McCaskill's $2.5.

Allen's lead over Webb in VA is from 2-4 %, but he has $6.6 Million to Webb's less than $0.5 .

The dollars in the above races might be discounted by politico's following all along, but for people just tuning in and GOTV drives, those dollars are a tremendous advantage coming down the stretch.

Even if the Dems sweep the other ten contested Senate races, Cheney gets a vote in a tie and there are enough moderate Dems in the Senate that it likely won't prove a disaster for the Republicans.

Other races where late money might come into play include:

Ohio - Brown is up over DeWine by 5 but DeWine has $6 Mil to Brown's $3

PA - Santorum may be within 5 points of Casey with an extra $4 Million in the bank and a strong desire to not go without a fight.

MT - Burns may still have a shot at Tester, who hasn't broken 50%. Burns still trails by 5 or 6 but has $2.2 Million to Tester's $0.5

If late spending is going to be a key determinant, forget Kean, Chafee and Corker - each is at a disadvantage in cash. They'll need more than dollars at this point. But the Republicans should be able to win 4 of the 6 listed above with a cash dump and focused GOTV activity pulling resources from states not really in play. The Dems can win 2 of the above and all of the 7 other contested races and still not get to 51.

Comments

[JOHN RYAN]

yeah looks like money will save the senate for the Republicans

[don surber]

Yea, outing gays doesn't attract campaign donations. Go figure.