A Real Perspective On Polling

Two days before the 2002 mid-term elections, Zogby vs the result.

Mondale was cruising by 5 in Minnesota

Minnesota
Mondale 50            
Colman 45   

Too bad he lost by 3 points.

Mondale 47
Colman 50

Strickland was a lock by 9 in Colorado

Colorado
Strickland 53             
Allard 44                  

Just two days and a 16 point swing later he lost by 5.

Strickland 46
Allard       51

Max Cleland, what can I say? Result in bold. Are you noticing a pattern here?

Georgia
Cleland 49                      46
Chamblis 49                    53

My, my .. the beat goes on.

Texas
Kirk 48                           43.3
Coryn 49                        55.3

Many are familiar with Thune, who didn't lose by the 5 Zogby projected. How many people stayed home on the margin? Your guess.

South Dakota
Johnson 52                   49.6
Thune 47                      49.5

Zogby had Lautenberg right in NJ, but under-polled Forester by 6 points.          

New Jersey
Lautenburg 54            54
Forester 38                44

Carnahan by 1 but 2 more popped up for Talent and he won. The typos are via Kos.

Missouri
Carnhan 49                  49
Tallent 48                    50

And going back to Oct. 22, these pearls of wisdom from DailyKos via Charlie Cook:

Cook notes that Dems have a good shot at taking GOP seats in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Colorado, while the race in North Carolina has become unexpectedly competitive...Consider, perhaps the surest takeover bet is Arkansas, a GOP seat. And if the GOP loses New Hampshire, which I believe is likely, then forget it. There's no way the GOP can take the Senate.

Too bad Dems lost all of the above by 5 - 10 points.

MSNBC says Big Dem Wins Likely. Now where have I seen that before?

Not voting due to polls may be the surest way to lose.

Update: The Dems are certainly working to pump up their liberal base. If the Republicans don't, conservatives, among others, will lose.

Comments

[Gabriel]

I predict yet another Night with Carville wearing his party hat: http://www.thegreatsatan.com/archives/000693.html

[topsecretk9]

Seems as if the NYT's knows this, so option 2 is in place...VOTE DAY CHAOS! Armageddon on Nov. 7th! Delays, lines, confusion!

[Jaxebad]

Mark Pryor (D) did in fact win Arkansas.

[Steel Turman]

When the voter goes into the booth, the realities of the world set in
and all the diatribe, bullshit and partisan crap get tossed.

The voter has a very simple dilemma this election cycle ...

Who will protect us better?

The Democrats will lose that debate every damned time.

[Kurt]

Of course there's also the phenomenon of people lying to pollsters or just not participating in polls. I'm guilty of the latter, and I've considered doing the former.

[dantravels]

Seems to me that it works agains the Democrats to say they are winning. I mean, evertime I see a report on the Democrats doing so well, it gives me the urge to vote (and vote often!) against them. My point is, if you are a Democrat, and are lulled into the sense of winning (because everyone else voted, you don't need to) this hurts their chances. Or is this comment too obvious? I really wonder if there has been a real study of the pyschology behind these events.

[Aaron]

Perhaps all the dems got Diebolded.

Turman:

How is the question "who will protect us better?" relevant at all? The GOP better stay away from that one, what with all of their wars of pre-emption being fantastic failures (and boondoggles to boot) and allowing New Orleans to be destroyed despite the common knowledge it was a top risk. Homeland security in general is an utter orgy of waste, for which we'll be paying for years.

I'm more worried about being protected *from* this government than *by* it.

But maybe that just makes me an "ACLU moonbat".

[TJ]

"But maybe that just makes me an "ACLU moonbat"."

Yes. Yes, it does.

[Lee Cockrell]

I recall a cartoon from the early 90s.

1st panel: "Carter vs. Reagan: Too close to call!"
2nd panel: "Wilder vs. Coleman: Wilder in a landslide!" (Wilder won the Virginia governorship by half a percent)
Third panel: "Would you like fries with that?"

[micah]

Once again, Democrats think America is (and I'll spell it slowly for the Republicans and Independents...)S-T-U-P-I-D.

Democrats try to spoon feed us and sway elections with their opinions - well I'm sick of it!

We need to respond by spoon-feeding our votes right back @ them, and throw their "landslide victory" into a tailspin!

Reminds me of Reagan's big win in 1984. For all the Democrats' nationwide blustering, Mondale only carried Minnesota!

It was actually kind of sad to watch. But pride goes before the fall...

[Ed Muntin]

"conservatives, among others, will lose."

I'm wondering what you think is "conservative" about the current administration?
- Deficits?
- Loony tunes foreign policy?
- Incompetence at every level – war planning, disaster response etc?
- Penalizing hard work & success to the benefit of vested interests?

[Jester]

The only problem with your theory is that this year, Zogby is predicting Republican victories in the battleground states, not Democrat ones. In Virginia, for instance, Zogby has Allen over Webb by 48-37. Every other poll shows that race in a dead heat.

[Rzorbk]

Re: GOP keeps house seat in 2002, Pryor (D) won the AR senate seat, not Hutchinson.

[Ian]

In both the 2002 and 2004 election cycle, Zogby polling was highly inaccurate. You can go to the New Yorker website to read more about his antiquated polling methods. That said, polling done by Scott Rasmussen which has been very accurate in the last election cycles also shows Republicans down in many close races. It is likely that Republicans will lose seats in the Senate and House and may even lose their majority status in both. Zogby being a lousy pollster doesn't change that.

[Phoenix]

Aaron,

"I'm more worried about being protected *from* this government than *by* it."

You can always move to another country. The nice thing about our liberty is it gives us freedom 'from' and freedom 'to'.

Your choice, bud.

[worldsSmallestViolin]

does anyone here actually believe that bush and his administration represent conservative republicans?

come on guys, think about it. smaller government? fiscal responsibility? _competence_? preemptive invasion of sovereign nations? loss of personal privacy? the loss of habeas corpus?

_none_ of that worries you?

The democrats look pretty pathetic, I agree. but the current lot look a hell of a lot worse. dont they?

[Noumenon]

I also, when I read "Zogby," thought, "Oh. That explains everything." He's always 'wrong', maybe his numbers are good for analyzing some other portion of sentiment, but he's not measuring what everyone else measures.

Phoenix -- that's a crappy answer. Emigrating doesn't solve anything. Instead, like in Cuba, it bleeds off pressure on the regime to change and leaves those who had to stay even worse off than before.

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