Bill Roggio is pessimistic about Pakistan's deal with the taliban. I realize Bill is on the ground there but I don't accept his analysis. Not that he's wrong, but when you take into account the politics of the region, it doesn't add up.
The news of the Pakistani government signing a truce agreement with the Taliban in North Waziristan is far worse than being reported. We raised the alarm early morning on September 4, and newly uncovered information on the terms of the agreement indicate Pakistan has been roundly defeated by the Taliban in North Waziristan.
Musharraf hasn't held onto power by being stupid and signing a deal that humiliated him in the end would be precisely that. Add that to word from State of a recent lengthy discussion with Rice on this very concept and the fact that Musharraf is currently in Afghanistan, I suspect there's more going on.
We have troops as far North as ever, (<-good read) though it isn't established fact bin Laden is even there. Were I him, I'd much prefer Iran, or a number of other countries even more.
NARAY, Afghanistan --Hundreds of American soldiers at this remote outpost are keeping up the hunt for Osama bin Laden even though the trail's gone cold, still motivated by memories of the hijacked and crashed airliners of five years ago on Sept. 11.
"Revenge was a big part of it," said 24-year-old Lt. Mike Vieira of the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division. The unit's 600 soldiers arrived here in February at what was then the army's northernmost outpost along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan
For now, I'll go with The Times of London - they see the makings of a trap. As was mentioned yesterday, cross-border hot pursuit likely offers more hope than the Pakistani military deployment did.
Major Scott Lundy, a Nato spokesman, said that some of the militants were in fortified compounds, while others were moving in the open. The militants are spread across an area of several hundred square kilometres. “They are contained,” Major Lundy told The Times. “It is a complex battle space. Some [Taleban] elements are fixed, others are moving.”
Major Quentin Innes, another Nato spokesman, said: “We are closing the circle on the Taleban — we have got the Taleban in a bit of a trap.”
Update: SACLU has a round up here.
The Taliban residue, as well as the recent grads of the training camps in that tribal region have treated the mountain trails of Waziristan like a 'freeway' for years. Due to Treaty requirements there can no 'hot pursuit", in the open. There can be no Coalition airstrikes on that sanctuary in Pakistan.
Our Alliance with Pakistan is testy at best. Pakistani troops enter that region reluctantly at best. The Kush offers too many choke points and opportunities for ambush. Until we are invited, we can only surveil the trails on the Afghanistan side of the border and wait.
Having seen the lay of the land there, being aware of the political sensitivities and the fragile state of the Alliance, I expected this to be a possibility. UBL is most likely north of that area, up around the Chinese border. An even worse place to be wandering about in the hunt. Oh Well... Pakistan is not the old Yugoslav Republic, as NATO is learning.
Posted by: old trooper | Wednesday, September 06, 2006 at 11:51 AM