Updated: Bush Declassifies NIE

If you can't read pdf, the entire report is below the fold. Just click read more below.

From my read, Iraq is presented as only one of four factors which contribute to the rise in extremism. The key difference is that Iraq allows us to have actual control. If we choose to remain and win, we strike a blow at Islamic extremism. If we cut and run as the Dems would have us do, it would only make it worse.

The other factors mainly involve reform in Muslim nations. While that's nice to think about, Iraq and Afghanistan also present the best, actually, the only opportunities for the US to have a direct hand in that development. If we were to threaten withholding support for Muslim nations, we would only exacerbate the issues that breed extremism.

Objectively speaking, Bush has done precisely what needed to be done by invading Iraq and Afghanistan, as it is the only significant way to combat that extremism directly. This likely won't come as a surprise to people who have thought about it above the level of all war is wrong. But I wouldn't look for the Left to get it based on this document. However, it could help establish the importance of Iraq to many moderates, or those in the middle of the road on the war effort.

Access it here. via Hotline On Call More analysis at link.

And here's what strikes us as the key paragraph:

• The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired on the fight.

Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism:

Implications for the United States. dated April 2006

Key Judgments

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al-Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.

• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate  recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

• The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit.

Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens.

• The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.

• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

• Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.

If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.

Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements.

We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.

• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.

• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al-Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.

• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists. Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.

Comments

[Captain Joe]

The assholes who leaked this report need to be strung up and hanged at the Washington monument at noon, along with Pinch Sulzberger the NYSlimes publisher.

[fiskhus jim]

Yes, I suppose it is just barely possible, though certainly unimaginable at this point in time, that if we stay the course in Iraq, we might win in Iraq.

That, however, would mean that the other three factors you cite from the NIE would remain unaddressed and the military would remain underfunded, undermanned and under supported by this administration when it comes to overall, total victory.

So, let's look at the probabilities: We take care of one threat but intentionally leave 3 unaddressed. Where do you think the next attack will come from? Iraq? Or one of the other 3 threats that Bush refuses to address because he is so sold on Iraq as his personal legacy?

[MattM]

Come on boys, even your beloved FOXNEWS is reporting that this report is nothing but bad news. Try and spin, discredit, lie, and smear all you want. There's no way around the fact that BushCo has made us LESS safe with his ridiculous war. And there's no way around the fact that the majority of America knows it.

Have fun in November.

[jay k.]

two of the four are linked...iraq and our worsening image worldwide...which means the problem that is iraq is only compounded by the collosal mistakes this civilian leadership has made in iraq. allowing them to stay the course...their words... will only continue the trend which means "...threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide..."
"..the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this estimate..."
please name one democrat who has advocated cutting and running. i'm waiting...

[Rick]

We are no more or less safe than we ever were with this very ill advised "war" in Iraq. You idiots never were safe and frankly dont deserve to be. You just head your little round heads buried in the sand and had no idea how the world or your own country......hell your own neighborhoods really are. Iraq has not increased or decreased the hate of the raghead world. No, we had no business going into Iraq, no more than we have invading legitimate enemies and criminals against humanity. But for legit reasons, not this BS "wehatebushatallcosts" reasoning most detractors use. As for me, I would whole lot rather the folks in the northeast fight the ragheads in the streets of their own cities than to have to send our kids to the big sand box.

[MattM]

Thanks for that amazingly racist commentary, Rick.

[Rick]

Racist? How? Oh I get it. The use of the term "raghead", that's it. You assume (ASS-U-ME) that everyone in the big sand box is of a certain race. I know better, but your assumptions make me a racist.........the things that make you go "hummm"

[Bill Biddle]

The game's up, boys. It's all unravelling for President Bush.

And what's that faint whiff in the air. Is it sulphur... or is it impeachment? We'll know in just 5 weeks time!

[Rick]

Yes! An impeachment, whatever it takes to ruin this country, I'm all for it!!! Just think, we force Bush to resign and spend the next two years with President Cheney. Great strategy!!! I just hope that the N Koreans get one of their nukes to work properly and aim it at Alcatraz.

[jim]

Well Rick, Cheney's running everything anyway. At least this way people can actually see who's really in charge.

[jim]

Note in particular, from your quotes:

a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and
geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

And note this chiller:

The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa’ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their
reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.

We're helping terrorists train to be more efficient and capable. Great. Glad that's where my tax dollars are going.

What in the section you quoted above, indicates that the Bush admin's plan with Iraq is aiding our War on Terror?

Why, actually nothing. All that is stated is some possible hypotheticals, while all the facts stated indicate Bush's Iraq strategy is bearing poisoned fruit for us.

[jim]

Guys. Seriously, I get it. You're in a bind. A classified report is revealed. It's the result of 16 US intelligence agencies, and it confirms what liberals have been saying all along - that Bush's invasion and occupation of Iraq is making terrorism worse for us.

Further, this report was classified...but Bush can declassify it without danger. So why was it classified in the first place?

Don't feel bad. Look, Bush was pushed with some of the most well-funded and sophisticated PR techniques the world has ever seen. A lot of people were fooled. It's no reflection on you; you just weren't cynical enough. We liberals were. So we saw it before you. That's fine. It could very well be that if a liberal president appealed to us, we could have tried to deny the evidence that he wasn't doing a good job in office.

But aren't you tired of this? Aren't you getting tired of making excuses for the Bush administration; for someone who's supposed to be a grown-up man?

Can't Bush actually be at fault for something?

If all the available facts and experts indicate that he's at fault, isn't it time to face that fact?

[Bill Biddle]

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush's premption strategy in Iraq was a reckless failed gamble that made things worse:

1. al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization.

2. the global jihadist movement — which includes al-Qa’ida, is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

3. jihadists are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

4. threats to US interests will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

5. New jihadist networks are increasingly likely to emerge. Shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

6. threats from self-radicalized cells will grow in the Homeland.

7. Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives;

8. The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists

9. factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities

10. 4 factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained reforms (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment.

11. Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.

12. Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq

13. al-Zarqawi could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

14. increased role of Iraqis in al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.

15. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists

16. Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise

----

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush did something right:

1. We "have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations" (Great, but they are not the only threat)

2. the loss of key AQ leaders makes it a less serious threat to US interests (Just point 1, restated)
----

Here are the parts of the NIE that suggest President Bush's premption strategy in Iraq may some day improve things, if they don't get worse:

1. IF jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

2. IF democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and (other) groups.

---

So according to the findings of the US Intelligence Agencies, President Bush's policies in Iraq have made things worse in 16 ways, but there are 2 ways things might get better, if they change.

Read it and weep.

[gil]

Dear Rhiel.

Your "objectivity" and clear "logical" assessment of what the NIE portion report is stating, is really such a mental gymnastic masterpiece that you should try for the Olympic team.

Or the other explanation to your "Objective conclusion" can be that you can't comprehend what you read, for this I suggest remedial curses in reading and comprehension. Another explanation to your rather weird "conclusions" can be that when presented with facts that contradict your view of the world, you turn inward, and go delusional. For this I recomend a good mental therapist.

Bush, you, and the Right Wing nuts out there remaind me of the story about the Pyromaniac Psycho Firaman;

There is a Fireman (Bush) that starts a fire (Iraq), then runs to pull it out, finds out he can't ; but he wants to take credit for fighting it never the less.

Turns out that in you "logic" the fact that we have turned Iraq into a terrorist heaven is good because we now "control" them..... Really? we control them Rhiel? I do suggest you see a therapist, or at least fire your talking points man.

[Rick]

"I suggest remedial curses in reading and comprehension."

Lesson one will of course be that both reading and comprehension are much easier when combined with correct spelling.