US On Path To War In Lebanon

If you apply some common sense, it becomes rather easy to see how current developments in Lebanon could easily lead America to war.

Israel has begun to withdraw, France is already calling for an end to the embargo of Lebanon. The Lebanese Army and some small, inadequate International force is expected to be deployed into Southern Beirut by the end of the week.

Hezbollah is already well out of the chute with their efforts in Southern Lebanon, no doubt winning hearts and minds, as well as re-establishing their military capabilities. No force involved other than Israel can or will disarm Hezbollah and every day that passes, the presence of more and more civilians, the Lebanese Army and said International force only makes it more unlikely Israel will act.

The International force, led by France, will effectively be more a cover for Hezbollah to re-group, than a keeper of some dreamed of peace. Emboldened politically by recent events, Nasrallah will logically assume both more political and military clout. Given that Syria is controlled by a Shia minority, just as Iraq is becoming so, it's foolish to think that demographics play a big part in who runs which state in the Middle East. Nasrallah is holding all the cards to formulate a radical Islamist revolution and there is no internal Lebanese force to stop him.

Picture the map. With further troop reductions in Iraq, it's only a matter of time before one sees a de-facto Shia state running all the way from Iran to Lebanon, including Iraq and Syria. Consequently, the US, Britain and some others would feel compelled to intervene in Lebanon. Israel could not do it as the intervention would not be based upon immediate aggression in their direction.

Of course, there is an alternative - that through either electoral politics or weakness at home, the US opts to not act at that time. In that case, the outcome is obvious. If nothing changes in the near term, the current monumental strategic blunder by Israel, Bush, Rice, etc we are now witnessing almost assures the coming of a broad and incredibly more powerful version of Ahmanenijad's emerging Caliphate.

In fact, only a war can probably stop that, now. What remains to be seen is if it's a renewal of hostilities by Israel today, or a much larger and far more deadly war involving America not too far down the road.

Update: Bryan has more addressing the issue ala Munich 1938.

Comments

[xxx]

You need to tell the mothership that these talking points don't even make sense.

I thought the Lebanese were going to turn against Hezbollah, now Nasrallah is going to take over all of Lebanon, what in a military coup? What's he going to use for weapons? The WWII rockets he fired into Israel?

Compelled to intervene in Lebanon? Huh?

Is our new policy simply that anyone who comes to power through a democratic process that we don't like is going to be toppled by a pre emptive military invasion?

Dude, that is not going to sell in America, I don't care how many fake terror plots are trumpeted and then die quietly on the vine or how much war mongering and lying propaganda is spewed forth by the neocons.

Americans are not that stupid, and if I am wrong and we are that stupid, then heaven help us, the world really will go down in flames this time, once and for all.

[Jeremy]

Im not that bright, but why did Israel agree to a ceasefire if it does not get its soldiers back, Hezbollah does not disarm, and they didnt get to do all the damage they wanted in Lebanon once they made the decision to respond to the kidnapping of their soldiers.

While I would never elect a democrat as a President, we dont seem to have a Republican who knows what to do to stop these terrorists.

[sigmund, carl and alfred]

Riehality can be depressing.

[Allah]

Thanks for the link, Dan, but I didn't write that. Bryan Preston did.

[Dan]

Yeah, I knew that! :p~

[xxx]

When Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria or any other ME country starts a military ramp up that is SIMILAR IN SCALE TO THAT OF NAZI GERMANY, and the West does nothing, then you will have a case for your appeasement parallel.

Until then, it's just more hysteria.

[rwilymz]

"SIMILAR IN SCALE TO THAT OF NAZI GERMANY"

So you include Iran, then.

Good for you.

But appeasement comes in all shapes and sizes, and you can't summarily dismiss the nature of appeasement simply because it doesn't meet with your self-righteous qualifications.

No one died and made you Allah.

[xxx]

Who said Iran wasn't a threat to its neighbors? Not me.

What I have said is that the idea that we are at war with Islam, Radical Islam and that the Arab world wants to take over the west and turn the entire globe into a Muslim state is utter crap.

What I have said is that a strictly militarly solution is a huge mistake and it will richochet back at us in terms of more radicalism, more hate for US and Israel and more terror not less.

What I have said is that if the Palestinian issue was solved, whether its a do over or whatever the fuck you want to call it, IF it was solved, if the Palestinians go a state that was governable and enough money to govern it with, that it would remove one of the best terror recruiting tools, remove a rallying cry that goes beyond Sunni and Shia and make Israel more not less secure.

Iran wants to be the main player, I mean DUH. They used to be the main player way back when Persia was an empire, they have their own unique cultural heratage and a lot more actual legitimacy as a nation state than the rest of the ME, which was drawn up on a pretty British/French map.

I never said these were nice guys. Again, DUH. They are by and large hugely repressive backwards regimes that have not been able or even willing to try and translate all that oil cash into anything like a functioning society or economy. What the fuck does Saudie Arabia have going for it? They are as corrupt as you can get. Syria? What did Assad do for his country? Not one thing that I can see. What is Egypt doing with all their US aide? I dunno, but it doesn't seem to be making much progress.

On the other hand, Lebanon WAS MAKING PROGRESS. And now that is all over. The one state, other than perhaps Jordan, that is even close to a secular, kinda democratic, less repressive, more progressive state, is now in ruins. For what? Because the Israeli's wanted to make a point to some punk like Nasrallah? Because they were sick and tired of prisoner negotiations so they destroyed their best chance of a friendly neighbor?

It's insane, all of it.

[old trooper]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=751259&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1

[old trooper]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=739320&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=2#article739320

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=740278&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=743955&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1

[old trooper]

Partners in peace Here's a joke that was vastly circulated during the war: The angels come to God after he has finished with creation and ask why he has favored the Jews so heavily. They say, "You've given them a land of milk and honey, of olives, barley, dates and pomegranates. They have Nobel Prize winners, artists and scientists. Their greatest minds contribute to the media, the banks and world politics. Is this fair?" God responds: "You're right. But wait till you see the neighbors I gave them."

[old trooper]

Lebanons "progress" was to become the Host Nation for a band of thugs and terrorists spawned by Iran and nurtured by Syria.

Don`t try to bullshit me. I have walked that ground.

[daniel]

One HUGE problem: Bush must seek authorization before he starts any kind of war(or it'll be an impeachable offense)and there's NO way this Congress will do that, unless we're attacked first. Word in DC is that the word "pre-emptive" is NOT in Bush's vocabulary this time around. Never going to happen.

[rwilymz]

"the idea that we are at war with Islam, Radical Islam and that the Arab world wants to take over the west and turn the entire globe into a Muslim state is utter crap"

Funny; pan-islamists think that.

"a strictly militarly solution is a huge mistake and it will richochet back at us in terms of more radicalism, more hate for US and Israel and more terror not less."

Learn this and learn this quick: "radicalism" only occurs when there are nations willing to pay the really pissed off rabble into fighting wars for it. Pal-Arabs steam-rolled by Israel only started terrorising Israel in abundance when Arab-state neighbors started paying the Pal-Arabs to do it.

"They are by and large hugely repressive backwards regimes that have not been able or even willing to try and translate all that oil cash into anything like a functioning society or economy."

Yet the Pal-Arabs are going to be all cuddly and happy with a state and the money to run it. Right?

Do you not see the fundamental insolvency of the situation you're describing?

You are declaring that the Pal-Arabs are capable of things you concede the rest of the region cannot even accomplish with $75/bbl oil revenue.

"Lebanon WAS MAKING PROGRESS"

Only if, by "progress", you mean "becoming a vassal state to the would-be resurgent Assyrian Empire... which has always looked upon Lebanon as its territory.

"...so they destroyed their best chance of a friendly neighbor?"

Jordan and Egypt, both with considerably more shared border than Lebanon, have signed a peace treaty with Israel. But, then, Israel coerced peace by beating the snot out of them repeatedly, which never ever works, so those peace treaties don't count.

Do they?

Peace can only come through endless concession to hostiles, because what would anti-semitism be without Jewish concession?

[old trooper]

daniel: If MI 5 would not have 'pre-emptively' arrested those Islamic plotters, planners and fanatical folks that intended to take down airliners filled with travelers, would that, after the fact, have served as justification for some action against those who sponsored them?

My point is simple and plain. We are at War. Should JFK have waited until missles hit the US, during the 60`s to take action? FDR went before a combined session of the Congress and the Senate after 7 Dec., 1941...asked for a Declaration of War and got it.

I am as fed up with Bush as any former 'instrument of foreign policy' could possibly be. When diplomacy fails, folks like me were called upon to prevail. Fact of Life for me.

Anyway, lacking a formal Declaration of War against enemies with no Statehood or Nation, but still at War with those that are on record as threatening any or all of the population of the US, as demonstrated on 9.11.01, I feel that a failure to pre-emtively strike
the Host Nations that finance, train and arm those terrorists as totally justified. Unless, of course, you wish to live under Sharia, see your women become second class beings and see everything that some of us fought to preserve just go away. Like the Constitution, Bill of Rights, as well as a quality of life that All other Nations envy.

If Bush does not take action, I would not look to that other party to do so. The bill is coming due again. Freedom has never been free.

[old trooper]

As a brief footnote: Congress did vote for it, before some of them voted against it.

A failure to formally declare a state of war was a huge mistake. A failure to fully support Israel, enlist the support of Egypt, Jordan, the Saudis, Kuwait and Jordan, our only Allies in the region in quashing Iran`s surrogate was a huge mistake, early on.

Just an observation qualified by having spent 12 years of my adult life in the Middle East, as well as 3 years in Bosnia and Kosovo saving Muslims from genocide there.
Quashing evil, after the fact, means burying the bodies of too many victims.

[old trooper]

This smells like Munich, 1938.

New proposal from Hizballah: We'll keep weapons, just not show them publicly
Yes, you read that right. From the Jerusalem Post: "Hizbullah likely to retain weapons"

Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The UN cease-fire resolution specifically demands the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani river. The resolution was approved by the Lebanese cabinet.
In a televised address on Monday night, Nasrallah declared that now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters, saying the issue should be done in secret sessions of the government to avoid serving Israeli interests.
More sterling logic:

"This is immoral, incorrect and inappropriate," he said. "It is wrong timing on the psychological and moral level particularly before the cease-fire," he said in reference to calls from critics for the guerrillas to disarm.
According to Lebanon's defense minister, Elias Murr, "There will be no other weapons or military presence other than the army" after Lebanese troops move south of the Litani. However, he then contradicted himslef [sic] by saying the army would not ask Hizbullah to hand over its weapons.

* Not the revisionist History, the actual events*

[xxx]

More UN Resolutions on Israel, 1955-1992

Resolution 106: condemns Israel for Gaza raid.

Resolution 111: condemns Israel for raid on Syria that killed fifty-six people.

Resolution 127: recommends Israel suspend its no-man's zone' in Jerusalem.

Resolution 162: urges Israel to comply with UN decisions.

Resolution 171: determines flagrant violations by Israel in its attack on Syria.

Resolution 228: censures Israel for its attack on Samu in the West Bank, then under Jordanian control.

Resolution 237: urges Israel to allow return of new 1967 Palestinian refugees.

Resolution 248: condemns Israel for its massive attack on Karameh in Jordan.

Resolution 250: calls on Israel to refrain from holding military parade in Jerusalem.

Resolution 251: deeply deplores Israeli military parade in Jerusalem in defiance of Resolution 250.

Resolution 252: declares invalid Israel's acts to unify Jerusalem as Jewish capital.

Resolution 256: condemns Israeli raids on Jordan as flagrant violation.

Resolution 259: deplores Israel's refusal to accept UN mission to probe occupation.

Resolution 262: condemns Israel for attack on Beirut airport.

Resolution 265: condemns Israel for air attacks for Salt in Jordan.

Resolution 267: censures Israel for administrative acts to change the status of Jerusalem.

Resolution 270: condemns Israel for air attacks on villages in southern Lebanon.

Resolution 271: condemns Israel's failure to obey UN resolutions on Jerusalem.

Resolution 279: demands withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon.

Resolution 280: condemns Israeli's attacks against Lebanon.

Resolution 285: demands immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.

Resolution 298: deplores Israel's changing of the status of Jerusalem.

Resolution 313: demands that Israel stop attacks against Lebanon.

Resolution 316: condemns Israel for repeated attacks on Lebanon.

Resolution 317: deplores Israel's refusal to release.

Resolution 332: condemns Israel's repeated attacks against Lebanon.

Resolution 337: condemns Israel for violating Lebanon's sovereignty.

Resolution 347: condemns Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Resolution 425: calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.

Resolution 427: calls on Israel to complete its withdrawal from Lebanon.

Resolution 444: deplores Israel's lack of cooperation with UN peacekeeping forces.

Resolution 446: determines that Israeli settlements are a serious obstruction to peace and calls on Israel to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention

Resolution 450: calls on Israel to stop attacking Lebanon.

Resolution 452: calls on Israel to cease building settlements in occupied territories.

Resolution 465: deplores Israel's settlements and asks all member states not to assist its settlements program.

Resolution 467: strongly deplores Israel's military intervention in Lebanon.

Resolution 468: calls on Israel to rescind illegal expulsions of two Palestinian mayors and a judge and to facilitate their return.

Resolution 469: strongly deplores Israel's failure to observe the council's order not to deport Palestinians.

Resolution 471: expresses deep concern at Israel's failure to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention.

Resolution 476: reiterates that Israel's claim to Jerusalem are null and void.

Resolution 478: censures (Israel) in the strongest terms for its claim to Jerusalem in its Basic Law.

Resolution 484: declares it imperative that Israel re-admit two deported Palestinian mayors.

Resolution 487: strongly condemns Israel for its attack on Iraq's nuclear facility.

Resolution 497: decides that Israel's annexation of Syria's Golan Heights

is null and void and demands that Israel rescinds its decision forthwith.

Resolution 498: calls on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Resolution 501: calls on Israel to stop attacks against Lebanon and withdraw its troops.

Resolution 509: demands that Israel withdraw its forces forthwith and unconditionally from Lebanon.

Resolution 515: demands that Israel lift its siege of Beirut and allow food supplies to be brought in.

Resolution 517: censures Israel for failing to obey UN resolutions and demands that Israel withdraw its forces from Lebanon.

Resolution 518: demands that Israel cooperate fully with UN forces in Lebanon.

Resolution 520: condemns Israel's attack into West Beirut.

Resolution 573: condemns Israel vigorously for bombing Tunisia in attack on PLO headquarters.

Resolution 587: takes note of previous calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and urges all parties to withdraw.

Resolution 592: strongly deplores the killing of Palestinian students at Bir Zeit University by Israeli troops.

Resolution 605: strongly deplores Israel's policies and practices denying the human rights of Palestinians.

Resolution 607: calls on Israel not to deport Palestinians and strongly requests it to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention.

Resolution 608: deeply regrets that Israel has defied the United Nations and deported Palestinian civilians.

Resolution 636: deeply regrets Israeli deportation of Palestinian civilians.

Resolution 641: deplores Israel's continuing deportation of Palestinians.

Resolution 672: condemns Israel for violence against Palestinians at the Haram Al-Sharif/Temple Mount.

Resolution 673: deplores Israel's refusal to cooperate with the United Nations.

Resolution 681: deplores Israel's resumption of the deportation of Palestinians.

Resolution 694: deplores Israel's deportation of Palestinians and calls on it to ensure their safe and immediate return.

Resolution 726: strongly condemns Israel's deportation of Palestinians.

Resolution 799: strongly condemns Israel's deportation of 413 Palestinians and calls for their immediate return.

[Carol Herman]

I'll take the other side, since I don't think the sky is falling.

Nasrallah's battle plan was to TAKE METULLA. Not just two enlisted men. And, Nasrallah, with six years worth of military planning, AND SURPRISE, just got to do a little damage. And, Israel jumped on it. Wars are terrible. This is NOT Czecheslovakia.

All Nasarallah's doing now is "visuals." To go with his sign painting. And faux-tography junkets. In the beginning, hitler actually hit his stride. And, in September 1929, took a very reluctant france and germany to war. After he obliterated Polaand. And, absorbed it. WHile france dithered. And, London balked.

Here? The Israelis were fighting in the heat of summer. Mistakes? Oh, I'd say Halutz made a few. The air force is all toyed up. But the tanks for the infantry are, sometimes, ten years old. And, not up-to-date. While the russians supplied the iranians with the latest in anti-tank technology. This was sold to Nasrallah. Who really runs lebanon. Though SIniora squirts tears in his way. Lots of crying towels. Much about what you see looks Vichy french.

And, ya know what? A lot of good the Vichy business got. Because, with lots of civilians dead, germany got to leave paris. Hasn't returned. Though the french still love the hitler dance steps. They've got their regrets about how WW2 turned out. Let me tell ya.

The french are trying to throw wet noodles all over the USA. But syria, kept her whole military system hidden.

WHile, in Israel, Olmert may face "recall." Halutz sits in the hot seat for INSIDER TRADING. Selling his stock portfolio a few hours before picking up the phone, to order the IDF to defend against Nasrallah's "takings." And, what's Nasrallah got?

I know we're supposed to fall apart because of all the propaganda. I sitll don't see this playing out in this manner.

I think Sun-Tzu said it's a wise general that uses deception. Makes his enemies think he's weak. When he is not. And, fakes withdrawal, when his plan's on par with Oddysseus. Where the Greeks looked like they were withdrawing to their ships anchored at sea. WHile they left behind a gift. See the horsey?

What if lots of civilians get killed the next time? Isn't it the job of war to kill enough of your enemy that the country goes hopeless? You think this burst makes the lebanese hopeful? What a hopeless crew to begin with; and not too hard to knock back down into their strumpet's position.

As I said, Halutz sits on the hot seat. And, Bibi is gaining steam. I laughed when I heard, of all people, Dahlia Itzik had a secret meeting with Bibi last sunday. But if things heat up? I'd make a side-bet that Olmert rearranges his ministers, before another undertaking. It will be very bold. In cooler weather. With all the tanks that broke down in the field, returned to the mechanics for repairs.

How far do the troops have to go to go back in? 3 miles? 7 miles? You haven't gone as far to find a Wal-Mart's?

A lot of lessons have been learned. And, about a million Israelis, living in bunkers for 33 days, can also come up for air.

What's nasrallah gonna do? He's gonna restock?

Degrading military strength is something good generals plan for. And, in 3 weeks Nasrallah stock got degraded. Not so easy come, as easy go.

I know he's out of his hidey-hole. He won't get to run into bunkers, this time. Because a lot of them are "toodle-loo."

Cooler weather, ahead, too. For those who can't run around in the heat, in their underwear, beause that military stuff is heavy. COverage is good. Makes ya sweat so much your socks turn wet with water. A pause is good.

While Cassandra comes out to scare the living daylights out of people who live far away. Meanwhile, in Israel, Olmert feels the heat! Do you know what it's like to sit with very little, in terms of political capital? Olmert's gotta figure it out.

While the IDF was never short of emboldened plans.

And, Arik Sharon made mince meat of his enemies in areas just as well stocked with civilians; and military men, as you can imagine. Do you know what happened? In 1973, when Arik Sharon was finally let loose by the "political geniuses that entered the crapper" ... he had thousands of eygptian soldiers running around in their underwear ... looking to run to Cairo.

Do you know why he made them strip? Because when Sharon was presented with all these enemies, as captured soldiers, he threw up his hands. And, told everybody just to let them run home. SO the officers ripped their insignias off their uniforms. ANd, they began running, too. NOT SO FAST. Sharon recognized how arabs think. The enlisted guys were in cotton jockeys. But the officers? Only silks. So easy to separate wheat from chaff. Wish is was as easy to do with news kaka, though. WHen it's all propaganda.

Like Israelis can't see the trick! Give me a break. Olmert's days are numbered if all he can do is political tricks. What's ahead? I don't know. There's probability to account for. Arik Sharon can be dead. ANd, Olmert can be politically buried.

Or? The machines keep pumping, and poor Arik doesn't go to a better place, out of the hands of his doctors. And, Olmert recovers lost ground. Changes a few military heads. And, finds a way to get Bibi into the government. It's chair #2 that's such a bother. SHimon Peres sits in it. And, today's his birthday. So, I notice there's no official hoopla over the old man's birthday. No cake. Nothing. Can you make him retire? WIthout the vacancy in seat #2, to give to Bibi. Olmert's joy ride in the prime minister's seat can be over. You haven't met Israelis. Than can out-talk me. Out shout me. And, nobody holds back.

[old trooper]

X....go make a Citizens Arrest!

[Gary Maxwell]

Dan

The Syrians and the Baath Party which runs its are not Shia. In fact there are preciousl few Shia in Syria. There are truly a majority of Sunnis, but a not insignificant number of Christians and some Druze plus the ruling Alawites. Alawites would likely be offended being called Shia and most descriptions of the various sects put the Alawites closer to the Druze than to anything else. Most Sunnis would probably say neither the Druze nor the Alawites are Muslims.

Shia are in Iran and Iraq and Lebanon. You also find some in Palestinian territories and they call themselves Islamic Jihad there. But no significant Shia in Syria and they certainly are not running things.

[Dan Riehl]

The Syrians and the Baath Party which runs its are not Shia. In fact there are preciousl few Shia in Syria.

Fair enough. I stand corrected. But are they really anything in this context without Iran? And, if Lebanon went and Iraq doesn't stablize (quite possible) how long before Syria is what Iran wants it to be? AT least, without some kind of confrontation to prevent it?