The Internal Lebanese Debate

Pajamas Media has an exclusive out of Lebanon. It offers some insight into the debate going on behind the scenes. Hezbollah does not appear prepared to abide by the disarmament provisions mandated by the most recent Security Council resolution.

This puts the squeeze on the government, as they have already adopted the resolution. They have to pick a side - side with Hezbollah and they are in default of the resolution and effectively at war with Israel. Side with the UN and it's civil war.

The "right" thing to do would be to decide with the UN and wage war against Hezbollah along with Israel and a UN force. But that's impossible given that they have no real army to wage war against Hezbollah as a rogue force.

If the damned UN had minded its own business, the formal government could have kept playing it both ways, allowing Israel to continue to decimate Hezbollah, even if it eventually spilled over into a war with Syria. Some insist they had sign off from the US for such an effort.

Way to go, UN - you likely just brought about a civil war in Lebanon. And if Hezbollah starts to target elements of the formal government or the Christian population, it will require a genuine International force to intercede under Article 7.

Um, but that likely never gets through the UN. So, there is always NATO, I suppose. Messy business, also unlikely. The most probable scenario is continued fighting between Israel and Hezbollah with elements of the Lebanese army jumping in with Hezbollah.

Nasarallah may even attempt to proclaim himself head of state. What's to stop him, really? The two states as they've been comprised in Lebanon were able to survive in word, now they cannot survive in deed if Lebanon wants to preserve its identity as a democratic state.

PJM says there's a podcast to come.

Here's the latest war news from the Middle East: Pajamas Media, or read a few regional blogs. I like to check the JP headlines, as well.

Comments

[Pickle]

This is *precisely* why Israel made this enormous last minute push into Lebanon. They know from experience these two groups will never come to an agreement tomorrow. Israel will stay in there and clean up until they do. And most definitely no, Israel withdrawing would have allowed them to come to an agreement is nonsense.

Lebanon and its party need someone to stand there with a knife to their necks until a competent policeman comes along. This is the only way to do it and that is why it is being done. Zero vacuum.

Hezbollah must now shit or get off the pot.

[ck]

Every time Bush appears to show weakness and give in, he backs his opponents in to a corner with no escape.

[Stormy70]

One thing some forget is that Nasrallah's main base in Lebanon was in the south. Now the southern civilians are in refugee status, and Hezz has had their political, social, and banking infrastructure blown up by Israel. Israel is also in the midst of killing his terrorists in the south of Lebanon which they control. After the vote at the UN, Israel conviently took all land to the Litani River in two days. They will ensure that no weapons come in and no Hezzies go out. All under UN sanction, so no more bitching from Europe and the Arab League. How is Nasrallah supposed to supplant the Lebanese government with no money or men? He is already running from the ceasefire because he knows it is over. Syria is also full of refugees from Lebanon, which they will have to address soon.
Israel is sitting pretty on the world stage at this point. Lebanon is the one going against the deal, not Israel. Nasrallah did not like the fact of the newest resolution insisting that 1559, calling for the disarment of Hezzbollah, be implemented by Lebanon with the backing of the UN force.
Lots of hand wringing without warrant, in my opinion.

[Stormy70]

Looks like Israel decided to keep their blockade in place past Monday morning, until a force relieves them under the new resolution.
Diplomacy is the new cover for continued operations.

[rwilymz]

"Diplomacy is the new cover for continued operations"

War is diplomacy by other means. - Carl von Clauswitz

Nothing new about it.

[K]

The key to the next decade is the UN force. I must suppose it will be another UN Farce - hapless, uninstructed, and unsupported. But if it should make a determined effort to control the areas assigned to it there may be some hope.

The UN area is on the border with Israel. This should limit cross border raids and rockets. It will not totally work, but nothing will totally work for a while.

Hez must decide if they will fight the UN as they begin to take over Israeli positions. If they do then the UN may escalate (don't laugh, no one is sure what might happen). If Hez lets the UN peacefully take control of their designated area then it will become steadily harder for Hez to dislodge them later.

And if Hez does not challenge the UN they will be perceived as weaker. That may encourage the Lebanese government is dealing with Hez.

Don't confuse me with those who think this will work. I don't. Israel will not survive without a powerful backer. They have five million people, the Islamic world has over a billion people and far greater economic resources and geographic area. Israel can never rule the Islamic world, the reverse is not true.

For decades Israels backer was the US. And they had much help from Europe and lesser help from many lands. Their fate depends not on their admitted skills and courage but upon the world.