In Answer To TigerHawk's Question

TigerHawk is hosting an on going discussion in comments on his blog. Basically, he puts forth this question:

So, if an existential war against Islamo-fascism is as inevitable as World War II became after the appeasement of the 1930s, what event would be necessary to motivate the United States to militarize its society and economy to fight that war? What event, if any, would militarize Western Europe?

With all due respect, the question isn't valid. Nothing, short of a conventional war with China would require such measures. China is many things, but Islamo-fascism it isn't. And even if Islamo-fascists take control of enough countries to amass the numbers for a world wide conventional war, the war against Islamo-fascism will never be a conventional one.

The real challenge and question has to do with mindset, not military capability. We could confront every instance of growing Islamo-fascism today, provided we had the will.

What will give the West and possibly even Europe the will to genuinely confront Islamo-fascism will be a catastrophic event which will make 9/11 pale by comparison. To cause such an event will require reliance on either chemical, biological or nuclear weaponry. That advanced weaponry, including its funding and construction or configuration, will invariably point to a state actor.

A proportionate response to such an attack does not require the militarization of the nation. And as nothing short of such an event will bring about said militarization, it will never come to be.

This isn't WWII and WWII thinking doesn't apply. The other key question that remains, is how many innocents will die in that exchange as result of the world's and America's failure to genuinely confront creeping Islamo-fascism with conventional forces now when a conventional confrontation would suffice.

Honestly, as one example, given the current direction of events in Lebanon, how many years away are we from the day when Hezbollah launches a nuclear warhead toward Tel Aviv and triggers World War III? Five, at most? Perhaps even less than that.

Comments

[noah]

Agree with your analysis totally.

Note the curious absence of any kind of sophisticated weaponry(stinger equivalents for example assuming Iran posesses such) being supplied to HzB. I think that means that Iran is not totally nuts and may be deterrable.

[Steven Den Beste]

If America or Israel is nuked, Europe will stand to the side, declare that "we are all Americans/Israelis" now, cluck their tongues, and within a week start telling us how it was really our own faults after all.

If a European city gets nuked, most of the mid-East will be glowing within a week.

[Carol Herman]

Who knows how many ways Hezbollah is deteriorating?

Iran doesn't have a military you could even compare to what she built, by proxy, through Nasrallah.

So, up ahead, what country would want to find itself in Lebanon's position? Where their weakest class, the Shi'a (who used to collect the garbage), got to rise to the top?

I think democracy, by the way, goes out the window. No arab state has LAW AND ORDER. In other words, it lacks a court system, just as it lacks citizens who could serve on juries. (In the American system, the juries are rigged now, to seat only people who are idiots.) But this is small potatoes, as problems go. While in arab countries, suckering you is their way of life. So, if you have a contract. And, you pour in billions; as America has done with infrastructure attempts in Iraq; you come away feeling for all the purple fingers. And, cedar revolutionaries. And, orange revolutionaries; because the structure is missing among the populace. Sad. And, too bad.

The model where the militaries in arab nations takes over, exists because there's nothing else. So the army takes control. And, the top officers sit in plum jobs. WHile the civilians can sit there with their thumbs up their noses. Nothing else is gonna work. Because their police system is rotten. Their business system (like russia's), is wall-to-wall black market.

Where we were stumped, here in the USA, came from the propaganda elements in the MSM. And, they've ben shoved aside, so far, by the Net.

Complex systems don't get built overnight.

And, places where things like the Department of Education, and our "war on drugs," has proven to be costly failures; well, changes don't occur there overnight, either.

I think the War on Terror puts civilians at risk. But as a whole the few that get killed, can't affect the many that do not. You don't think so? Then, you've never driven on our Freeway system. Where these risks are assumed to be there; 55 mph laws were a farce. And, people, to play it safe, belt up. We also use our police, interspered in this traffic, to keep control. And, also to show up at accident scenes to clean things up. While citizens buy insurance. This cycle has funds to live on.

The other thing that I'll venture to guess at, I actually saw happening in Italy. Where, today, birth control controls families. Not the Catholic Church. Those preaching methods flew out the window. (And, I was around growing into adulthood in the 1950's. So I'm surprised now that those old Catholic grandmas are no longer replaced. What's my point? No one says this can't happen to muzzies in First World countries. Will Europe lag? OF course. But that doesn't mean their citizens are just gonna remain drung on socialism, without catching on to their own ills. While in America? The adjustments might be better? And, to replace the flunking Department of Education? Who knows? Israel's draft system looks like a winnah. If you need fast call ups. But we're not there, yet.

And, down the road lots of dots connect at the horizon. But go try chasing the horizon. It's always out of grasp.

[Carol Herman]

Steven Den Beste raises a good point. Europe only reacts if it's own self-interests receive pain. But I think before the Mideast turns into a glass factory; the likelihood is that the muzzies aren't throughly able to aim. (Well, do men even aim well into the urinal?)

No. I'm not trying to be funny. But it didn't escape my notice that arabs were being hit, and killed, indescriminately from nasrallah's rocket fire into Haifa. The Israelis did not separate out the body count. And, she is fighting because her territory is being invaded.

I'd hedge my bets with the Europeans, though. If the nuke erupted in a Belgian city, the "rule of one week to glass" would present the French with a utilitarian conundra. Why react at all? What about those Agrandizements most french won't visit? I think the nuke would make the french laugh. And, not even surrender, here. At this point.

England? Nah. Her own streets with erupt in mob violence. Not so easy to control when Bobby's don't carry guns.

Then, if I had to guess, our President makes all sorts of allowances for the possibilities. While he brings out enemies to the table, willing to up the ante.

If you want to win poker games you've got to be able to look stupid, and to make your enemies think you don't have good cards.

I don't know where I read it, perhaps in Liddell-Hart's book STRATEGY. But I believe even hitler didn't want to fight. He wanted to win by terrorizing his enemies into not fighting him.

When the fights came, hitler lost. And, the current islamo-fascist set up isn't nearly as bright. Or as well honed in getting cooperation, like hitler did when germany consumed satillites.

I also notice, today, Poland makes outreaches to Israel. And, so, too, the Cossacks in the Ukraine. If this is true, then its possible that the passage of time changes things. And, the idiots of islam,today, who follow the turbans, won't anymore likely follow them in the future of a generation or two, than Elmer Gantry could cook up an anti-Semitic mob (outside of Connecticut. And, those elite faries don't count.)

Why am I so relaxed? I used to drop off of Bush's bandwagon, back in 2002, with breakneck speed. Only USS Clueless saved me. I'm okay now. I think our President has a plan. And, so, too, do our allies. Maybe not by being on the same page in the same book, but fully aware of the problems we're facing. Including the best way to surgically disarm as much of this stuff as possible. While it was russia who got Chernobyl. No finger lifting necessary. Incompetence just can't depend on parades. Time's can be a very big "equalizer." Pretty much based on SPecial Forces. A trained Air Force. And, the Mossad. (I think Israel's changing the military tactic books, too.) More for the long haul. Less dependent on one week wars.

[splashtc]

Israel should continue, with our full support, until Hez is no more. Nasrallah should be on trial like Saddam, Osama... South Lebonon is a terrorist training camp. Hez will become the Lebonese army. China sees this as a US defeat. China aligns itself with Iran.