D2

Comments

[nym2000]

All we know is that Natalee got into the car with
Joran, Deepak and Satish. She was never seen again
by anyone else. At least no one has come foward to say they have seen her.

[kaycee77025]

That's the facts, plain and simple.

[xxx]

Well, um, other than the FACT that Joran, Deepak and Satish all told multiple lies about what happened with Natalee after she left with them, and the FACT that their accounts still don't match.

[SETHLEVINETHEJEW]

His mother in law suggested they were in bad behavior on that fateful night or morning. The Twitty family knew there was something wrong when they arrived in Aruba. The two black security guys were held responsible for the demise of Natalie Holloway. Beth Holloway Twitty knew different in an instant. So, the longer this thing goes on the further you get from the truth. People don't remember what they said or what they did. The father, Paulus got involved and it was a mistake. On the other hand what was he supposed to do. He should have kept his mouth shut, instead of running around like a scared puppy. The reporter for the Diario knows what happened, but he's not saying. You don't think there's a pipeline in Arubas' bowels? I'll bet there are many people who know the Van der Sloots and the Kalpoes. It's a small island and nobody talks, because they hate the Americans and people with money. They're fake only because it is their source of well being. What do you expect them to do. They are very patriotic to their own cause.

[xxx]

On that I agree 100%, Aruba is steeped in anti American sentiment but it is kept under wraps to keep the tourist dollars flowing...that was apparent in the way Rudy Croes talked about American tourists in the first weeks of the case.

I've always thought that many people have about an 80% certainty of exactly what happened to Natalee, where she was taken and where she was most likely disposed of.

[jack]

I've always thought that many people have about an 80% certainty of exactly what happened to Natalee, where she was taken and where she was most likely disposed of.

Posted by: xxx | Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 02:28 PM

And yet nobody has come forward with reliable information in order to claim the 250 k reward ?

[jack]

"The reporter for the Diario knows what happened, but he's not saying."

So far he has only said things that have been known to have never happened .

The idea that ANYBODY (apart from the perps and their associates) knows anything about Natalee's whereabouts and isnt telling sounds like utter crap to me .

[jack]

Well, um, other than the FACT that Joran, Deepak and Satish all told multiple lies about what happened with Natalee after she left with them, and the FACT that their accounts still don't match.

Posted by: xxx | Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 01:38 PM
and the FACT that there is no evidence of any kind so far that could lead one to a crime , a crime scene or the perps.

[jack]

"Aruba is steeped in anti American sentiment but it is kept under wraps to keep the tourist dollars flowing.."

Well like it or not , MOST countries in the world are like that.

[SETHLEVINETHEJEW]

On an island controlled by corruptness, there is little chance of someone coming forward. It's from the cradle. The protests from the locals when the media was there. Also the train runs from north to south.

[kaycee77025]

And the fact that a small group is convinced that despite the lack of evidence, J2K are guilty.

[SETHLEVINETHEJEW]

In this case you are guilty until proven innocent. OJ Simpson and his outrageous profits on wallets and money clips.

[xxx]

and the FACT that there is no evidence of any kind so far that could lead one to a crime , a crime scene or the perps.
----------------------------------------------

"Evidence" is a highly subjective term apparently, and many people consider physical/forensic evidence the only "evidence" that counts...isn't that why Robert Durst walks among us, because perhaps the single dumbest jury ever convened aquitted him of murder because his victim's head was still missing? Presumably they thought the missing head might be off cavorting at a resort somewhere. Yet, Scott Peterson was convicted SOLELY on circumstantial evidence, evidence that formed a pattern as to his motive, intent and behavior shortly before and after his wife's disappeance. There was significant forensic evidence linking OJ to his wife's murder, yet he was acquitted.

There is ample circumstantial evidence that Natalee Holloway is dead, in that 'lack of evidence' is considered evidence...lack of any credible information that she left Aruba alive or was alive beyond May 30th is extremely strong evidence that she is dead.

Similarly, there is ample circumstantial evidence in terms of the suspects behavior, lies and statements to suggest they are covering up SOMETHING related to Natalee's last night.

Is that enough evidence for an arrest/conviction? Nope.

But it is more than enough evidence for suspicion, and while police are not allowed to invent dots and then connect them, there are only a handful of logical and plausible conclusions that one could reach.

The conclusion that the 3 suspects did no harm to Natalee whatsoever and none have any idea what happened to her on May 30th relies on too many assumptions at the very top of the plausibility/statistical scale.

In my opinion.

[xxx]

Physical evidence as well can be interpreted in different ways, take the case of Rebecca Middleton, young girl raped and murdered in Bermuda.

Her clothing had been cut off, her face and body were bruised, there were several shallow knife cuts all over her [read torture], her genitals were extremely bruised and bloody.

But the guy who was last seen with her and whose DNA was a match for the semen in her claimed, having just met him she consented to rough sex with him and then SOMEONE ELSE KILLED HER. Guess what, the cops bought it...because they apparently believed that white girls come to Bermuda for sex with black men. He was never charged with rape, he served 5 years in jail. The other rapist and murderer ID'd by the perp whose DNA was found on her was acquitted by a judge for 'lack of evidence'. If you ever want to see a sick miscarriage of justice go to some of the Rebecca Middleton sites and read the description of her injuires and police actions for yourself.

Natalee Holloway's body could have been found with DNA from all 3 perps and they could have claimed consensual, rough group sex and PLENTY of idiots out there would have gladly believed it.

[jack]

The conclusion that the 3 suspects did no harm to Natalee whatsoever and none have any idea what happened to her on May 30th relies on too many assumptions at the very top of the plausibility/statistical scale.

In my opinion.

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 12:45 PM

Whatever scenario you might like to subscribe to which is consistent with all the known facts about this case will nevertheless rely on a number of assumptions .

[jack]

Natalee Holloway's body could have been found with DNA from all 3 perps and they could have claimed consensual, rough group sex and PLENTY of idiots out there would have gladly believed it.

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 01:14 PM
I am not so sure too many people would have believed it . And I am pretty sure that there was no sexual intercourse between Natalee and any of the suspects.

[xxx]

Whatever scenario you might like to subscribe to which is consistent with all the known facts about this case will nevertheless rely on a number of assumptions .
-------------------

That's true, but they have to be weighed by their probability.

Such as, the idea that Natalee drowned and her body disappeared is highly IMPROBABLE given the tide/currents on the beach where she was, combined with her level of intoxication. Even if we had this improbable scenario, we would then have to add another layer of improbability that her body was eaten by a large ocean predator rather than floating off the coast to be seen by the air searches. It isn't impossible, but is very, very unlikely that all these improbable things occured together.

Same with Natalee running away. Firstly, there is no known motive, no known accomplicies and the pesky problem that no one credible such as a boat or airplane pilot has ever said they saw someone resembling her. She would have improbably decided to run away in Aruba, without a passport or any known horde of cash, any clothing, she would have had to have done so AFTER waking up from her 'sleep' on the beach at roughly 3AM, she would have had to have left the island unnoticed with the help of someone who either never heard or saw any coverage of her disappearance or who chose to keep silent in lieu of at least $250K and more likely $1M. Totally implausible on all fronts.

[xxx]

A sex slave kidnapping scenario would rest on the improbable idea that a 17 year old party boy and his buddies who cared about booze and casual sex somehow were acquanted with professional sex traffickers and in their total ignorance chose a high profile, affluent American to give to them, OR, even more absurd, that some professional human traffickers just happened to be walking or boating by where Natalee was 'sleeping' on the beach and they grabbed her. Totally improbable.

And then we come to the suspects. Statistically speaking, most times a person disappears under mysterious circumstances it is either the last person(s) seen with them or someone with a close relationship to them. Natalee's family can be ruled out as they were not in Aruba. Since no one from Mountain Brook has ever been suspected, and it would again, be highly improbable to kill your classmate in Aruba, a place you knew nothing about rather than at home in AL, and there is no known motive for anyone to have wanted her harmed, this leaves us with the last people known to be with her as the most likely perpetrators.

I'm sure there are stats out there on who lies to cops and why and how often lying to police=lying to cover up a crime, but I don't have those...common sense would seem to dictate that when you lie to police you do so for a logical reason,and my common sense says that not getting GROUNDED [one of Joran's earlier reasons] and not getting IN TROUBLE FROM YOUR DAD are not legitimate reasons for lying repeatedly and flagrantly and reaching out to third parties to prop up your story.

Thus, to me the most probable scenario is that the suspects were involved and/or responsible for Natalee's demise and her disposal. The variables for how this could have happened are many...

[jack]

Thus, to me the most probable scenario is that the suspects were involved and/or responsible for Natalee's demise and her disposal. The variables for how this could have happened are many...

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 01:29 PM

I dont think there are many possibilities assuming the suspects are involved , given that they were not together involved . Apart from the dumpster theory I dont see any feasible scenarios .

On the other hand looking at the possibility that Natalee fell victim to a stranger who was lurking around on the beach , perhaps even taken away to South America , there is a lot of ways how that could have happened given that there were enough people from those parts with boats visiting Aruba that night .

[xxx]

On the other hand looking at the possibility that Natalee fell victim to a stranger who was lurking around on the beach , perhaps even taken away to South America , there is a lot of ways how that could have happened given that there were enough people from those parts with boats visiting Aruba that night .
--------------------------

It seems pretty unlikely that a boat would have gotten close enough to shore at night to see a passed out blonde girl and decide to grab her, but it's possible.

It likewise seems unlikely that someone driving a car would have coincidentally pulled into the fisherman's huts areas and seen Natalee and driven off w/her, but this is actually more likely to me than the boat scenario.

If someone came upon Natalee passed out on the beach then we have the same problem we have now with Joran, what did they do with her body? Where could she have been put that was close enough and secluded enough to avoid detection and yet remain unfound 15 months later..has to be a dumpster.

BUT, and this is the big BUT, I would have to believe that all the bizarre actions and lies and still unsolved questions about Joran and K2 were ABSOLUTELY INNOCENT [improbable] AND that another totally improbable action...a total random stranger who walked/boated or drove by and killed her BOTH HAPPENED...this is too much for my hopefully logical mind to bear and I dont' believe it.

As far as Natalee waking up and going off with some other, second group of complete strangers, willingly, when she's 10 minutes from her hotel its 3AM or later..... and then being killed, I find it complete b.s.

[jack]

"It likewise seems unlikely that someone driving a car would have coincidentally pulled into the fisherman's huts areas and seen Natalee and driven off w/her, but this is actually more likely to me than the boat scenario."

Not so unlikely , given that a woman was approached by a man with a car near the FH 10 days into her disapparance . There was also a recent incident involving another tourist who was attempted to be assaulted but fought back and overpowered her assailant which I think also happened in that locality .

[xxx]

Not so unlikely , given that a woman was approached by a man with a car near the FH 10 days into her disapparance . There was also a recent incident involving another tourist who was attempted to be assaulted but fought back and overpowered her assailant which I think also happened in that locality .
---------------------------------

But what time did these incidents occur? Was it in the dead of night, at 3AM?

Joran [sometimes] and Joe. T admit Natalee was 'asleep' when he left her...so someone would have had to see her from the ocean or the road, or happen to pull in, get out and then find her...

If Joran had told the truth from the start then I would at least give this maybe a 50/50 chance, but his actions and those of K2 cannot be squared with complete innocence.

If he was INNOCENT then his first story would have simply been that he fooled around with Natalee and left her walking toward her hotel, he would have, to make himself look better, left out the fact that she had been passing out all night and was in fact, passed out when he left her...he might have been viewed as kind of lame for not walking her back or as a total asshole for leaving her passed out, but the premise would have been, then, to look for unusual activity on the beach that night with the idea that someone else grabbed her.

He would not make up a totally different story that involved his other innocent 2 friends.

The someone else got her story only makes sense when you totally separate it from the actions of the suspects.

[SETHLEVINETHEJEW]

Did ya' ever notice on a Chrysler 300M, front to rear or vice versa that the tires are very narrow for such a large car? Doesn't look right. It would be interesting to find out if the carting companies keep records of their dumpster pickups. I would imagine Marriott needs to be accountable for their expenses, unlike the US government. If she was in the dumpster, I think someone would have noticed unless they were paid off. The island does not generate trash like NYC and the number of hotel facilities that use dumpsters is not great. In fact, I have been many times and never noticed a dumpster truck on the road. No body, no case. Where the hell is Natalies' body?

[xxx]

IF she was killed on the beach and NOT put in a dumpster then the only alternative is that she was burried and someone moved her...which brings us full circle back to a conspiracy to protect Joran.

Swimming out with a body would seem to be pretty risky, especially if the fishermen were right there off the beach as they say they were...a big reason I never believed Natalee was alive on the beach at all in the first place.

The idea that Satish or Deepak picked him up is nonsense. If Deepak picked him up, why does he email him that he got home okay? If Satish picked him up, same question, why does he email Deepak to tell him he got home okay when Deepak ALREADY knows that his own brother has gone to give him a ride and would have no reason to believe he did NOT make it home okay.

Therefore, either Joran walked home or someone else gave him a ride.

[jack]

But what time did these incidents occur? Was it in the dead of night, at 3AM?

The first incident , as far as I recall happened around 4am .

[jack]

If Deepak picked him up, why does he email him that he got home okay? If Satish picked him up, same question, why does he email Deepak to tell him he got home okay when Deepak ALREADY knows that his own brother has gone to give him a ride and would have no reason to believe he did NOT make it home okay.

Therefore, either Joran walked home or someone else gave him a ride.

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 02:22 PM

He DID NOT EMAIL Deepak . He sent a text message to Deepak on MSM since according to him Deepak appeared online around 3:30 am . We also have seen copies of text message headers sent to Deepak from Joran's computer .

[xxx]

Same difference if the text message said 'got home ok'

[jack]

Same difference if the text message said 'got home ok'

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 04:02 PM

Not if Satish gave him a ride . I think he started the message with 'whats up" so it looks like casual chat with an online friend .

[xxx]

Oh come ON.

So what, Satish sneaks out of the house, takes Deepak's car and goes to pick Joran up and so Joran lets Deepak know he's home now? PLEEEEAAAAZE.

Forgive my ignorance, but I thought you sent text messages from blackberries and cell phones not home computers?

[jack]

Do you recall seeing the exact words "Got home Ok" or are you paraphrazing someone's recollection (either Joran's or David Kock's) ?

[xxx]

no, not paraphrasing anything, all I remember is that he supposedly emailed or text messaged Deepak that he got home okay or was home...no idea if the actual wording has been released.

i don't remember koch saying anything about the content of joran's messages to deepak, he mostly focused on the time that deepak was online to prove he couldn't have been at the pond where the gardner saw him, that he did drop joran off at the beach and that neither kalpoe could have or did pick him up.

[jack]

Forgive my ignorance, but I thought you sent text messages from blackberries and cell phones not home computers?

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 04:08 PM

Forgive my ignorance :), but call it text messaging or not , Joran sent the message from his MSN account on home computer according to the harddrive analysis .

What I am saying is Joran didnt send the messages for the sole intention of letting Deepak know he was home , although he did mention that as part of the chat .

[jack]

"no, not paraphrasing anything, all I remember is that he supposedly emailed or text messaged Deepak that he got home okay or was home...no idea if the actual wording has been released."

I have no idea where that came from either.

[xxx]

What I am saying is Joran didnt send the messages for the sole intention of letting Deepak know he was home , although he did mention that as part of the chat .
----------------------------------------------

Again, oh PLEASE, where did he think Deepak thought he was if he was getting computer messages from him at 3:30AM? That he had built a mainframe out of bait and tackle and sand? Busted into Deepak's workplace?

If Satish did pick him up there is NO WAY I can see any discussion leading to Joran confirming that he was home. In fact, any discussion of exactly WHERE Joran was seems pretty odd in and of itself.

If it wasn't code for something else like "got rid of the body no worries buddy' then it was the beginning of Joran starting to construct his entire false story by making sure Deepak "knew" he was home and a-okay...

[jack]

"Again, oh PLEASE, where did he think Deepak thought he was if he was getting computer messages from him at 3:30AM? That he had built a mainframe out of bait and tackle and sand? Busted into Deepak's workplace? "

LOL , all I am saying is it is perfectly normal for young people to chat with online buddies at 3 am .

[jack]

"If it wasn't code for something else like "got rid of the body no worries buddy' then it was the beginning of Joran starting to construct his entire false story by making sure Deepak "knew" he was home and a-okay..."

Or it could just be two sleepless people chatting casually at 3:30 am .

[xxx]

Sure, but its the content of these particular chats that make it relevant.

It would also be interesting to put it in perspective if Deepak and Joran (a) typically (b) occasionally (c) rarely (d) never before had gone online to chat after having been out together the same night.

If it was a habit, then, okay, that significantly reduces the suspicious nature that I am giving it. If, OTOH, they had never had such a post going out late night online conversation then...it looks pretty dodgy.

[jack]

Look , we are not even sure what the content of the chat was . And I agree ,
we have to look at the history of how frequently the two used to exchange messages on computer , especially at such hours in order to try to reach any kind of conclusion .

[xxx]

Unfortunately I have zero confidence that the ALE did their homework on this, just like I wonder if they bothered to ask anyone if Joran had EVER BEFORE gotten dropped off by friends A and B and then an hour or so later called up A and B or C and D at home and asked to be picked back up.

If the selfish little prick did this all the time, and his syncophantic friends indulged him by picking him up after various romantic encouters or hook ups, then that makes his...I called K2 to pick me up and they did at least possibly believable.

Me, I don't think this is how young guys who party a lot operate,unless Deepak and Satish were really up all night doing lines or meth or waiting on a call from their drug dealer then the IDEA that they would come back out and yet Joran is absurd on its face.

[jack]

I think Joran was used to getting rides on Deepak's car , thats how Beth managed to trace Joran from the description of Deepak's car alone.

[jack]

I think it has been confirmed that Joran did call Deepak around 2:40 am .

Its possible that Deepak declined to offer him a ride at that hour but I dont think thats very likely especially when Deepak didnt have to sleep immediately .

[jack]

"Unfortunately I have zero confidence that the ALE did their homework on this, just like I wonder if they bothered to ask anyone if Joran had EVER BEFORE gotten dropped off by friends A and B and then an hour or so later called up A and B or C and D at home and asked to be picked back up."

I would imagine they would have done that unless they are really , really really incompetent

[xxx]

Check out Gottlieb's new statement...

Seems our boy Joran threw some druggie off a bridge becuase he was hararssing him.

And it seems the 'plate glass' window story is TRUE, except, according to the truth teller, it was all..a accident...poor Joran just 'fell' into the guy...HMMMMM.

It also, according to this kid's statement, appears that the young, scared truth telling Mr. van der Sloot, DID LIE in his first HI story and DID SAY that it was Natalee who was gambling and losing money at the casino and that he won some money back for her!!! Soooo, it looks like Charles Croes got that detail right all along, it wasn't Charles who was confused about what Joran said but was Joran LYING AGAIN, making shit up about Natalee Holloway that never happened.

Oh. My. God.

I cannot understand how anyone can believe a thing this guy has to say, let alone believe him innocent of harming Natalee Holloway.

Patholigical liar, sociopath.

[xxx]

Correction, its Sander Gottenboes

[xxx]

It's only a matter of time before there is confirmation that he killed the dog and tried to blame it on a neighbor, as has long been rumored.

I still cannot figure out any reason for these statements being released like this, so piecemeal or why not even MSNBC or FOX have done anything with them.

I'm trying to think of some kind of strategy of pressure, but it really makes no sense, there isn't any effective pressure w/out media coverage and either they are saving the best for last or they are just getting them out as they get them.

It did occur to me that perhaps this was some kind of bizarre legal groundwork for an Aruban civil suit,that if enough of the case file becomes public domain then the family would be able to legally get the rest of it, but it still doesn't explain not a blip of coverage about this stuff.

[jack]

.

I'm trying to think of some kind of strategy of pressure, but it really makes no sense, there isn't any effective pressure w/out media coverage and either they are saving the best for last or they are just getting them out as they get them.

It did occur to me that perhaps this was some kind of bizarre legal groundwork for an Aruban civil suit,that if enough of the case file becomes public domain then the family would be able to legally get the rest of it, but it still doesn't explain not a blip of coverage about this stuff.

Posted by: xxx | Friday, September 01, 2006 at 04:56 PM

I dont think that whoever is releasing the statements have quat up their sleeves . And I dont find anything incriminating in these statements

[jack]

The HI story was a lie anyways . How does it matter if the girl who was gambling was Natalee or not . Deepak and Satish both have said (believe them or not is a differnt thing) that they saw Natalee approaching Joran in the bar and calling him to dance with her , so yeah its likely to be true that SHE made the first move at the bar .

[jack]

"It's only a matter of time before there is confirmation that he killed the dog and tried to blame it on a neighbor, as has long been rumored."

Perhaps its only a matter of time before there is confirmation that he drugged and raped three Aruban girls .

Perhaps its only a matter of time before there is confirmation that he boasted about having sex with Natalee ar school the nest day

Perhaps its only a matter of time before there is confirmation that a bunch of American blondes show up and describe their nightmarish experiences with Joran

[xxx]

The HI story was a lie anyways . How does it matter if the girl who was gambling was Natalee or not .
-----------------------------------

Jack, if ALL he wanted was to stay out of it and not get in trouble, why would he invent such a detail as to say it was NATALEE gambling and losing money and him winning it back if it was someone else????

It matters because it shows a pattern of either being a pathological liar or of creating, as I said way back when, a particular narrative designed to make Natalee look like an aggressive, crazy slut.

Does it matter if he also first said she gave him a blow job in the car and then said it never happened?

If he said she was gambling and it never happened, and he said, at least according to VF that she gave him a blow job in a moving car [JUST LIKE HE SAID KARIN DID], then WHY WHY WHY WHY would you believe his uncorroborated statement that Natalee came up to him, that Natalee was 'sleeping' and not unconscious from drinking or that he left her on the beach?

How many lies do you get to tell before your innocence is questioned?

[jack]

I am not defending Joran , but he says that he was kinda attracted to the girl who was gambling but could not find her at the bar and ended hooking up with Natalee instead . This doesnt explain the lie at all , but may have been a motivation why he made that part up .