Lebanon: Why It Might Be Different This Time

Glenn Reynolds is thinking, as I have been doing, what might be different regarding current developments in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia and others have made less noise than have Russia, China and France. So, I'm remembering bits of news over the years which have been all but forgotten.

Saudi Arabia experienced two significant terror events - a bombing and a run at some of their oil fields when a car loaded with explosives attempted to crash a gate.

Suicide bombers in explosives-laden cars attacked the world's largest oil processing facility Friday, but were prevented from breaking through the gates when guards opened fire on them, causing the vehicles to explode, officials said.

I can't find the link, but intelligence recovered in Iraq not too long ago showed that al-Qaeda wanted to shift some of their efforts back toward Saudi Arabia. Also, as we've gathered more intelligence, we've been able to demonstrate that al-Qaeda could and did work with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. They benefited from the same networks of intelligence, money and weapons.

Jordan was instrumental in helping take out Zarqawi and Zarqawi's replacement has vowed to get even. Along with it being known that Iran is backing Hezbollah, they've also been backing insurgent efforts in Iraq.

Iran also has ongoing land disputes over all of Bahrain and Abu Musa* and has been pursuing them more actively since the fall of the Shah. Oman, Qatar, the UAE and some others have never been an issue for the US.

Lybia is, for the most part, a non-player - many believe Assad and Ahmadinejad survive as puppets of the religious fundamentalists. It's highly unlikely that the families, and a politician in Egypt, who currently run most of the Middle East want to share power with a Mullocracy.

Finally, the US currently controls Iraqi airspace and any provocation by Iran toward Israel would involve over flight that would land them in a war they'd lose. And of course, there's also our significant military presence through out the region right now.

Israel doesn't threaten Egypt or Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Syria do, in two ways to some extent. They frequently destabilize the world's economy - and their ultimate victory would mean abdication by the current ruling classes throughout most of the Middle East.

There is good reason for everyone but Syria and Iran to allow Israel to destroy Hezbollah. And that appears to be the Israeli strategy - isolate Lebanon, take down Hezbollah - then withdraw and leave it for a Lebanese authority currently too weak to take on Hezbollah directly, to mop up.

Too optimistic perhaps, but it's a thought.

Comments

[Giveemhell]

Let the mexicans earn their citizenship here in the USA by serving in the armed forces. Kick their butts over there !! All the over ragheads there in those 3rd world countries are nothing but a bunch of cult followers. Religion is just an excuse for them to be the evil deeds they wish to do to others.