A Slightly Different View On Iran And Hezbollah

I'd like to offer a quick, slightly different perspective on things Iran / Hezbollah from what I've seen. The CW is that Hezbollah was and is proped up by Iran and Syria for the purposes of fighting some proxy war with Israel. I agree with that, as far as it goes. But give it a bit more thought.

Hezbollah had over 11,000 rockets according to published reports, with some being rather sophisticated, to boot. Given that, might it not suggest a more serious war, as opposed to some on going low intensity proxy war? Isn't it possible, perhaps even logical to think of the contemporary Hezbollah as almost a forward staging area for what Iran has promised will eventually be the extermination of Israel?

Point being, if that's the case, then Iran was pumping up Hezbollah with munitions. dollars and rhetoric in preparation for an attack in which they fully planned to take part. But the UN and potential sanctions over Iran's nuclear designs intervened. And it happened at a time when the US is already such a formidable force in the region, it's impractical for Iran or Syria to attack Israel right now.

I realize these are fine distinctions. But it would again point out the truly duplicitous nature of the Iran regime; not just as regards things Israeli. It would be sacrificing Hezbollah up as cannon fodder merely to serve as a distraction from its current predicament - which brings us back to the CW, I know.

If the above were true, the Hezbollah faithful now dying would be dying for the wrong cause. Were they smart, they might come to understand how little they really matter to Iran and Syria in the end. Sadly, they are probably too filled with hatred and distrust of Israel and all things Western,  and the incomprehensible, to us, willingness to die to reason it out. But if they could, it might make it more difficult for Iran and Syria to prop up another Hezbollah in the end.

Of course, this all assumes Iran and Syria don't jump into the fray. But with Hezbollah's capabilities being reduced dramatically every day, that's appearing less and less likely at this point.

Comments

[Phoenix]

Good analysis, Dan.

"And it happened at a time when the US is already such a formidable force in the region, it's impractical for Iran or Syria to attack Israel right now." Isn't this what the neo-cons had in mind a while back? Future-thinking pays off, and Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Bush and the others who planned things out after 9/11 knew darned well our presence in the Levant was a necessity come hell or high water. Sooner or later they knew this scenario was going to play out. And I have no doubt they are nodding their heads as things escalate just as they predicted. I think Iran and Syria have signed their death warrants.

Your observation that Hezbollah might suddenly realize they've been cannon fodder for a much larger cause is a high possibility as they take the heat while the others play dumb. Now if only the Iranian population could get it together to topple that crazed regime of theirs, things might happen with a lot less bloodshed. Then, maybe that impotent weasel in Syria would roll over and run home to mama.

[michael ledeen]

They do not think that way. They have convinced themselves that Satan is weak and divided, incapable of decisive action, and thus easy prey. They believed the "international community" would stop the fighting quickly, and there would be hostage negotiations and eventually a "prisoner exchange" favorable to them, as has happened many times. Israel and the US would be exposed as weak and indecisive, and Iran/Hizbollah/syria/Hamas would grow in prestige and power.

This is part of the war they are waging against us in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon. You are quite right that it was not some sort of gesture, or an attempt, as many have suggested, to deflect our attention from the nuclear question. It was a battle in a war they believe they are winning.

I think they made a mistake. I hope we take full benefit: destruction of Hizbollah, and the end of the Assad regime. Not easy, but possible.

[Phoenix]

They are incapable of thinking the way we do. Their culture was not brought up in freedom and liberty and individualism. We understand their way of thinking and have taken all of that into account. What they have failed to do is to *realize* the western mindset doesn't crawl around in some Stone Age instinctual survival mode. Too bad the concept of separation of church and state is not something they can grasp.... For The Life of Them.

[Dan]

I appreciate your thoughts, Michael. Sadly, I doubt we'll ever be able to fully get inside their minds - who would want to. But I am far from an expert on things Middle East. Given the turn of events, then it is quite possible we'll see something from Iran rto flex it's muscle - perhaps what we heard today was a start IE the terror threats.

[Righty-Tighty]

Thanks for the post. For what it is worth, I think you hit the nail on the head with this one, Dan. I look forward to your personal insight, and I have just been reminded why I check your site several times a day.

[rwilymz]

I'm not so sure Hezbollah's capabilities are being reduced dramatically. They're using assets, and they'll need to be resupplied. But at $75/bb for oil, Iran has the wherewithal.

They're also losing a few footsoldiers, but not so many. And they're *not* losing position. Until Israel comes across with their own ground troops and physically takes away ground from Hezbollah, they're merely denying position while the jets are in the air.

[Steve]

What proof is there that Israel is winning this war? From what my discerning eye is seeing, they are at a stalemate, possibly losing. This is the new way of waging warfare for the muslims. They have forsaken tanks for missiles. It's going to end up being a seige of missiles and won't look too different from what Ridley Scott was putting on the big screen last year with that crusades movie. I'm not optimistic this morning.

[Steve]

Pay attention to Haifa. If the enemy decides to hit the refinery there I expect Israel to respond by taking out something of Iran or Syrias. Something big. That refinery is the tipping point IMHO.

[Neo]

This particular battle/war is really just a glorified bar-fight, and not among equals.

Hezbollah (who needs for PR purposes to have one English spelling), Iran's favorite, picked this fight, figuring the crowd would keep Israel from winning. The crowd yawned.

Next will be some Iran-induced diversion, just to generate some sympathy for Hezbollah. Oh there it is, CNN is filming it now.

[K]

I think this particular phase of the neverendingstory is purely accidental. A big surprize to Hamas and Hezbollah.

They and lesser groups had been killing Israelis with suicide bombs, rockets, fire-and-run mortar, and the occasional ambush or kidnapping for years. In turn Israel made strong but very focused attempts to locate and kill the leaders.

This time, for one reason or another, Israel decided on a major military effort to maim these two enemies and obtain a buffer zone on their northern border. Israeli intelligence probably reported that Hezbollah was becoming a serious force rather than a controllable nuisance.

[Katje]

Neo, this is much more than a mere barfight. What we are seeing are the opening salvoes of a war that has been a long time in coming.

Iran under the mullacracy has been building its nuke program for years, and has been working not only to distract the world's attention from it, but to increase the ranks of its militant jihadists. All the increased rhetoric about Israel has provided not only a focus for all the free-floating hatred in the Arab world, but a wonderful distraction, as well as a chance to really put Hezbollah into action again.

Israel has been intently watching what Iran, Syria and their terrorists have been up to. I believe they noticed they were running out of time to nullify or destroy their military threat before Iran's nuke program was fully up and functional. Why do I say the program isn't? Because I know that Iran would have been taking a *very* different public position toward Israel if it was. Although they talk big, they're still working to maintain a thin veneer of plausible deniability.

So where does that place everyone? Both sides were locked and loaded, Hezbollah's Iranian-made and supplied rockets aimed at Israel, and each side knowing that a game for big stakes was about to kick off. All it needed was the jack@sses from Hamas to pull another one of their vile stunts, to give Israel their cassus belli, and off came the gloves, as did the safeties. IMHO, the real reason for all the rockets and smoke has to do with Israeli intelligence, most likely from inside Iran. Hezbollah is Iran's tool in the area, and the immediate threat they pose has probably hastened or determined the particular course of operations, but I'm pretty certain that plans of action for what to do in likelihood of Iran's nuke program completion have been in the offing for some time. Face it: Israel knew they probably had little if any time left, and they knew to act now.