USA Today Immigration Analysis Doesn't Hold Up

Initially, I had hoped the new USA Today analysis on illegal immigration might offer some insight leading to a political compromise on Immigration Reform. Unfortunately, once you take it apart, it looks more like a scam than good analysis, or journalism - and the problems are much worse than those pointed out by Tom Bevin at RCP. The hard part is knowing where to begin.

Let's start here. Of the 23% unconcerned with illegal immigration, 59% are identified as Democrats. Of the 27% ambivalent - 47% are Dem. Of the 27% welcoming 54% are Dem. Are you seeing a trend here? In essence, it means we're at 41% of the total sample being Dems with 25% left to count. According to Rasmussen in April the Nation is at: 37% Democrats, 34% Republicans Survey of 15,000 Adults.

It's potentially worse, as we see from the ambivalent category they did allow for Independents : The most bipartisan group D 47% R 40%, ... but I'll be conservative generous.

The hardline category is only 25% of the survey and then only 51% Republican. If only 30% of that last category is Democrat, it would take the overall sampling up to 48.5% Democrat at a time when the national average is 37%. Hmm?

USAToday had the advantage of cherry picking no doubt: A USA TODAY breakdown of public opinion, based on Gallup polls taken in April and May. So, let's go back and look at what Gallup said at the time.

Keep in mind this immediately below is before the May demonstrations and the Hispanic national anthem issues.

A Gallup/USA Today poll conducted April 7-9 of 1,004 adults found 63 percent support allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the country under certain circumstances, while another 17 percent said they should be able to stay for a limited time. ...  The Gallup poll had 81 percent agreeing that “illegal immigration to the United States is out of control.” Gallup found 48 percent think a wall would be at least somewhat effective. Gallup’s poll found 18 percent said all illegal immigrants should be deported.

April 11 via Gallup - More than six in ten Americans support a path for citizenship for illegal immigrants, "but only if they meet certain requirements over a period of time." Most Americans say that illegal immigration is out of control, but a majority believes no matter what the government does, a sizeable number of illegal immigrants will still get in.

In the USAToday analysis 77% of the sampling is either unconcerned, ambivalent or welcoming. Take a look at this Gallup video. According to Gallup on April 3rd R 49%  I 39% D 42% were worried a great deal about illegal immigration. Today via USAToday we were told 77% hardly care. Hmm, again?

Two quick lovely asides, the environment ranks 2nd from the bottom of National concerns - sorry Al. And, back to the USAToday bit, 54% of the welcoming category are Democrats but three of four are conservatives or moderates. Don't tell Kos, he may go back to playing the piano. Let's press on and finish up.

Gallup April 13:

When asked where government should focus its energies on immigration, Americans are more concerned that steps be taken to halt the flow of immigrants slipping in at the border than they are that the government develop a plan for dealing with the illegal immigrants already living here. Americans also favor many of the more severe remedies for thwarting illegal immigration included in last year's House bill.

The Chicago Tribune:

The good news is that I did find a few points upon which a solid majority of Americans seem to agree. The idea that we should crack down on companies that hire undocumented workers, for instance. Support for fines or other penalties against employers: USA Today/Gallup (early April), 84 percent.

I assume by couching it as analysis, USAToday got away without posting any raw data. But based upon a major over-sampling of Dems, their analysis seems dubious, at best. Also, by possibly looking back before May when the illegal Immigration lobby started marching and singing, galvanizing public opinion against them, it could just be that USAToday is more USA Yesterday than they would have America think.

It's a thought, anyway. See QandO and RCP for more analysis.

Comments

[warrewarrenbnb]

Hmm.

You're a true hypocrite. You emailed me a few months ago after I sent you a pretty long note about some poll numbers but you wouldn't have any of it and wrote me back saying you don't follow any polls and they are useless...Then you go on and on lately about polls lik in this article. Only when the polls back YOUR current view, then you deem them as important. Like I said, You are a true HYPOCRITE!

[Dan]

you don't follow any polls and they are useless...

Hey! Moron! Didn't I just basically prove it? ha ha ha God you are dumb.

[Jackfurter]

Just out of curiosity, Dan....

How many people do you feel you win over/convert with your Dem/Liberal baiting?

Are you trying to piss them off? Think about how you feel when you read Rep/Conservative baiting on the Daily Kos. Do you feel put in your place? No. Do you feel that the Daily Kos (liberal incarnations of Dan Riehl) wins any converts? Of course not.

I'm challenging you to get smart. You'll not only sleep better, but you'll also succeed in persuading more people to at least see your point of view. Nowadays, you just either preach to the choir or come across as being bitter and brainwashed.

Grow up, Dan. I saw you on Fox and can tell that deep down you're a good man. You're so much better than what you're showing.

[tracker]

USA Today is a Gannett publication. An illegal immigration apologist...unreliable. Make no mistake, we are now in a fight for the soul of our country. I pray that we will not surrender to vincente fox and the hispanic terrorists.

[Dan]

Just out of curiosity, Dan.... How many people do you feel you win over/convert with your Dem/Liberal baiting?

How is it Dem/liberal baiting if I point out that a poll over sampled Democrats? And if you're referring to my exchange with Warren, I don't see where lib or con entered into it. He said I told him I dont trust polls - and mostly I don't. Sort of funny this comment coming up now while the post above has captain planet calling the prez, who I have been raking over the coals, myself, a renegade right wing extremist.

Any chance you'll denounce him if he is on the ticket come 08?

[warrewarrenbnb]

"The good news is that I did find a few points upon which a solid majority of Americans seem to agree."

The mere fact that you state the above indicates you DO follow polls and take them seriously enough to base that ENTIRE sentence above on their validity (majority of Americans seem to agree) And where did you get that??? How do you know how many Americans agree? OH...Unless you follow the polls.

Moron? No sorry bro. I beg to differ who the moron is. Unfortunately thats YOU Dan. Grow up.

[Dan]

The mere fact that you state the above .... Moron? No sorry bro. I beg to differ who the moron is. Unfortunately thats YOU Dan. Grow up.

Warren ... Baby. Quit while you're ahead. I didn't write that, you realize the link and indented text means it came from the ... Chicago Tribune, right? Er, uh ... right???
LMAO Tooooo easy, Dude. Maybe you need a nap. ; )

[BB]

The large majority of polls I've read on illegal immigration this year have been very skewed - both in the way questions were phrased as well as the ways the data has been presented and packaged. It's been a freaking circus. If the pro-s2611 crowd is so confident in the polls they cite as showing them support, why are they always using the kind of language they do to describe their legislation, eg, "earned citizenship," "guest worker," "immigration" (versus "illegal immigration"), "back of the line." It's 1984 all over again.

[Stella]

...I assume by couching it as analysis, USAToday got away without posting any raw data. But based upon a major over-sampling of Dems, their analysis seems dubious, at best.....

Here’s a pretty decent article regarding valid polling data – “20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results,” Third Edition, Sheldon R. Gawiser, Ph.D. and G. Evans Witt – and the authors note “The authors wish to thank the officers, trustees and members of the National Council on Public Polls for their editing assistance and their support.” The USAToday poll does not seem to meet their standard of “The only polls that should be reported are "scientific" polls” – and they were co-founders of the Associated Press/NBC News Poll.
http://uspolitics.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=uspolitics&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncpp.org%2Fqajsa.htm