The Problem With Political Calculus

Ryan Sager has an interesting piece at RCP on the challenge the GOP faces from differing views on Immigration policy, especially between the South and the West. Unfortunately, what the piece really illustrates is how bereft of principle are our Nation's politics and politicians.

Immigration is causing a split in the Republican Party. But it's not between business snobs and working slobs. It's between the South and the West.

While there may be state and local races this year where it makes sense for GOP candidates to take a hard line on immigration, President Bush and Karl Rove have taken the opposite approach at the national level for a reason: cold, hard electoral calculus.

I've no problem with Sager, well, except perhaps that his political positions don't precisely agree with mine - but I'm from the Northeast, so effectively don't count in Republican circles.

Since I just deal with the politics in the column, let me give a brief sense of where I am on the policy: I'm for stronger border enforcement, against a wall, and for radically increasing levels of legal immigration (be it through a guest-worker program or other mechanism). I think immigrants are what make this country strong, but I also believe they should do everything they can to learn English once they get here.

But here's the real rub - what Sager's piece points out is that once you start thinking in terms of the GOP, it's no longer about what's right, or good for the country, it becomes all about what sells. None of our current politicians seem capable of taking the issue of immigration on in any terms that are real. It's all about how one feels about immigration.

There is analysis out there which shows how formerly all but eradicated diseases like TB and Malaria are returning largely due to illegal immigration. A continued unrestricted influx of illegal immigrants places a rising demand on our health care and education systems at a time when they are already swamped.

On his blog Sager says he is for an increase in legal immigration but against a wall. But no one believes for a minute that any patrolling policy is going to do anything to stem the flow of illegals across our border from the South. So, there isn't a practical solution to be found in those feelings. And some seem to be beginning to paint the South with the old brush of racism, which I find unfair.

Where in all of this politicking on immigration is anyone talking about making sound decisions for the country based on actual facts, as opposed to feelings? I just don't see it. Armed with the right objective data, politicians, Republican and Democrat, should be advocating sound decision-making designed to perpetuate a strong, culturally coherent America, irrespective of how those decisions might initially make some feel. That's leadership. Taking and positioning oneself around polls doesn't foster it one bit.

If the so-called leadership of the GOP were really about principle and leadership, they'd be out front leading with good information, educating the population and winning elections based upon ideas and a commitment to solid principles. Instead, they'll likely be looking at polls and crafting positions which will always be too shrewd by half.

It is, after all, the very act of sticking ones finger in the wind. Haven't we already had enough of that? Republicans don't get elected for sticking their fingers in the wind. Reagan and the current President Bush were elected because they took good positions, not polls. Arguably, Bush senior smartened-up in his second campaign and he lost.

Republicans have two choices on immigration. They can get good information and sell solid positions to America based upon objective facts, or they can take polls, stick their fingers in the wind and spend all their time looking up, before being trampled in a stampede toward the Dems.

Comments

[Bryce]

Good post! The only problem with trying to educate the voters is that some of them not only don't want to hear the truth, they will react with anger when someone tries to educate them. My guess is that they will take this anger out on the pols when it comes time to vote.

Immigration was supposed to be an issue republicans could run on in 2006, seems like it is going to rank up there with new Coke in one of the worst ideas of all time.

[iwabwu]

Immigration or Immigration Reform? Who determines what the educational agenda and slant is?

[Phoenix]

Good post. It made me think of group therapy. There is a 'leader' in group therapy whose job is to say after someone has cried the blues or whined or cried: "Oh. And how did that make you feel?" Boo hoo. The problem is, is that most leaders of group therapy need to be in therapy, themselves. So, they don't make effective leaders. Sooner or later, those in the group turn on the leader, and they leave therapy all the better for thinking, 'Man, I'm glad I'm not as screwed-up as he is." It's a slow metaphor for politicians sitting around trying to fix one problem with a group-load of half-assed ideas. The polls stand in for the pills people take to help them get better when therapy fails. Bush is the leader of the group, so to speak. If he would just lead for a change........

The educational agenda? It shouldn't even be an 'agenda'. It should be based in objective reality without the inteference of 'how does that make you feel?'

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