Looks Like My Poll Results Are Up And They're Wrong

I mentioned having participated in this poll. I'm not very pleased with the headlines around this and have some first hand reflections and an opinion I'd like to offer now that it's out. This poll has some serious problems in my view.

WASHINGTON — The majority of Americans disapprove of a massive Pentagon database containing the records of billions of phone calls made by ordinary citizens, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. About two-thirds are concerned that the program may signal other, not-yet-disclosed intelligence efforts directed at the general public.

By 51%-43%, those polled disapprove of the program, disclosed Thursday in USA TODAY. The National Security Agency has been collecting phone records from three of the nation's four largest telecommunication companies since soon after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Now for some facts buried in the poll. Question number 1:

1. Do you think the Bush administration has gone too far, has been about right, or has not gone far enough in restricting people’s civil liberties in order to fight terrorism?

Thirty-four percent of respondents think Bush is getting it right, 19% say he hasn't gone far enough, 6% don't even care enough to offer an opinion. Consequently, 59% have no real issue with the program, so how can they possibly write the lede they did? Only 41% responded he has gone too far, even if you throw in the 6% with no opinion you can't get to 51%.

If you contrast the results from Q 1 with Q 3 you'll see they completely contradict one another. It's Q3 which gives them the 51% disapprove number they tout. So how can they possibly account for the 53% from Q1 who feel Bush is doing just right, or not enough, let alone the 6% who didn't respond? It doesn't add up.

3. Based on what you have heard or read about this program to collect phone records, would you say you approve or disapprove of this government program?

Approve 43%  Disapprove 51%

Again, 6% didn't even respond on Q3, so 49% had no stated objection and 51% - 49% is well within any margin of error for the poll. I think this goes to an issue I raised previously about the feeling around the poll. Perhaps some simply disapproved because for now they are down on Bush in general.

Q 4 is, in my view, a bit of an abomination as it suggests 69% of those who approve of the program also think it seriously violates Americans civil liberties. In reality, that question was never directly asked. Apparently Q 4 was asked only of those who approve of the NSA program.

4. Is that (you approve) mainly because you do not think the program seriously violates Americans’ civil liberties, (or is it mainly because) you think investigating terrorism is the more important goal, even if it violates some Americans’ civil liberties?

Does not seriously violate civil liberties  27%

Terrorism more important, even if violates civil liberties  69%

No opinion  4%

I'd argue that someone serious about fighting terrorism and with nothing to hide could easily fall into the 69% cited above without ever considering an answer as to whether the NSA program seriously violates civil liberties, or not.

I believe Q 6 is definitely worth a look and it makes Q 2 critical.

6. Based on what you have heard or read about this program, do you think it definitely violates the law, probably violates the law, probably does not violate the law, (or) definitely does not violate the law?

Definitely violates the law 22%    Probably violates the law 32%

Probably does not violate the law 25%    Definitely does not violate the law 14%

No opinion  8%
         
2. As you may know, as part of its efforts to investigate terrorism, a federal government agency obtained records from three of the largest U.S. telephone companies in order to create a database of billions of telephone numbers dialed by Americans. How closely have you been following the news about this?

Very closely  28%       Somewhat closely 39%        Not too closely 20%

Not at all   12%           No opinion  *

What we know is that this is a complex story and the difference between phone numbers without names in a huge database versus call internals, or content is critical to any interpretation of the law. A third of those sampled haven't really followed the story closely. In my experience, the poll didn't draw a memorable distinction between records and content.

Also, some in the MSM media and certainly some politicians have helped to misrepresent what really is at issue as regards the actual data being collected. Given those facts, it may well be that Q 6 can't stand on its own, let alone given the low number of respondents following the story closely.

Q 7 is another real peach over which I'm concerned.

7. If you knew that the federal government had your telephone records, how concerned would you be -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all?

Very concerned  22%  Somewhat concerned  13%  Not too concerned  20%

Not concerned at all  44%   No opinion  1

Wait a minute! How can this be? We just learned that 51% disapprove of this program - that 52% feel it either may or does violate the law, perhaps even crushes our civil liberties - now it seems 65% couldn't care less, and only 22% even seem to care at all??

Do these polls come with live operators for post-poll analysis? I think we may need one here. Hello? Hello? Have I been disconnected, somehow? Or is everyone in America suddenly concerned more with their neighbor's civil liberties than their own? This does not compute.

I responded yes to Q 8 - are you surprised?

8. If you knew that your telephone company had provided your telephone records to the federal government as part of this program, would you feel that your personal privacy had been violated, or not?

57% of respondents also said yes, but, like me, a majority doesn't really care. It is always a personal violation when ones info is sent around. That's a statement of fact which does not mean one thinks it wrong, or illegal. Q 8 has no bearing on anything at all.

9. Would you favor or oppose holding immediate Congressional hearings to investigate this program?

Unlike me, 62% said they would. But I'm not stridently opposed to hearings. Maybe people think if they can see their representatives on TV, they can't be off somewhere raising taxes, or taking bribes.

Q 10 is a three part-er on privacy issues, you can read it at the link below. But at least they saved the best for last.

11. Do you think the news media should -- or should not -- report information it obtains about the secret methods the government is using to fight terrorism?

Yes, should  47%       No, should not 49%       No opinion 3%

Forty-nine percent say should not? Pardon me for pointing out to USA Today that that's precisely how we got here in the first place, now isn't it?

So, just who is the real loser in this poll, USAToday? hmm?

Details of the poll at link below:         

Poll:NSA database reaction

The survey of 809 adults taken Friday and Saturday shows a nation that continues to wrestle with the balance between fighting terrorism and maintaining civil liberties.

Update: My thanks to Kim at Wizbang and Glenn Reynolds for linking. But I'm afraid the new USA Today logo proposed at BCB might cause a riot, or two. Or does that only apply when Mohammed's invloved?

Comments

[Julian Morrison]

It's something that polls do, reporting the largest single response as if it were the majority. But they're hardly alone in this - the same method is used to elect politicians. Otherwise, the "don't care / none of the above" party would have won nearly every democratic election since the start of polling (except dictators who'd sail in on 80%, heh).

[Gaius Arbo]

Agreed, this poll is not a good one at all. I think we're on the same page:

http://bluecrabboulevard.com/2006/05/14/yet-another-poll-yet-another-result/

[Concerned]

The problem may not be in the collection or accumulation of all this data. But, at some point in the future, is the government going to be selling this? Will it be secure? Will someone be able to request a FOI and get my personal info? Use it for telemarketing? IRS?

[Neo]

The idea that the NSA can't have these records, but everybody else can just buy them is silly.

[Richard R]

Q1: If George Bush were actually a killer alien robot from the future, would you be concerned?

Headline: 92% Concerned Bush is Alien Killer!

[Richard R]

Neo, thank you for that!

I have access to a number of commercial databases. I can pull up data that most people can't believe - every address they've ever lived at, every phone number they've had, every employer, school, credit issuer, bad debt, good debt, magazine subscriptions, what they rented at the video store and if they were late returning it. If I want to spend some money - like, an extra $25 - I can get every phone call they've made in the last year.

If I can get it, Al Quada can get it. If they can get it, shouldn't the NSA have it too?

[fletch]

dan-

Or is everyone in America suddenly concerned more with their neighbor's civil liberties than their own? This does not compute.

You see the same thing when people are polled about 'the economy'.

Between 70-80% will say that they themselves are doing fine and they have positive expectations for the future- yet 50% still think the nation as a whole is in a recession....

[CTD]

It's certainly possible to reconcile these numbers - 59% have no problem with the Bush's actions in general, but that drops to 49% for one specific program. Is that so surprising, especially given that the news story is "domestic spying without warrants"?

Then there are 16% who are "not too concerned" about what the government might do with their own phone records, but disapprove anyway. These could be folks whose own calls are nothing special, but who worry about abuse of the program for political purposes, from this or some future administration.

[Phoenix]

Ever bothered to file for a copy of your credit report?

That makes this whole story the joke of the year.

Not only that, the credit companies give your information to anyone who asks.

People are so stupid, it's frightening. Answering a poll written as this one was is like taking a multiple-choice test in college when you didn't read the material or bother to go to class.

[Tim]

BHWAAHAAAHAA, an impeached president has more credibility then Bush!

It's time you rightwing douche bags call it a day....Bush will, when it's all said and done, go down in history, as the worst President ever! After the Dems take over the House And Senate, America will hopefully be able to clean house and get rid of the lying, scumbag Reps and start moving America forward! Let's hope it's not to late!

Which man would you say was more honest as president?

President Bush 27% 28190 votes

President Clinton 73% 78055 votes
Total: 106245 votes

Poll

[adk46er]

Tim,
You're entitled to your own opinion but you're not entitled to your own facts. Based on your latest post your honesty number would be in single figures... Bush can't be happy with this CNN survey but anytime someone posts the numbers you're claiming without providing a link there is probably a reason (Apparently you thought it would be neat to post the unscientific internet poll rather than the actual CNN poll). So how about if we look at the actual poll which isn't nearly as bad as you're claiming.

"When asked which man was more honest as president, poll respondents were more evenly divided, with the numbers -- 46 percent Clinton to 41 percent Bush -- falling within the poll's margin of error. The same was true for a question on handling national security: 46 percent said Clinton performed better; 42 percent picked Bush."

[tenuate]

Beautiful site!

[ultram]

Incredible site!