Will The Dems Win The Senate?

Check out Jay Cost's item at RCP today which explores the possibilities from a perspective most simply don't have.

History indicates that when the House switches, the Senate switches, too. Our knowledge of congressional elections implies that this is not coincidence. Accordingly, we can conclude that the safety of the GOP Senate strongly implies the safety of the GOP House. Further, we can issue a challenge to pundits who think the Democrats will take the House. They have an additional burden of proof: they must either indicate that the Senate will switch or why 2006 will be the first exception to a 92-year rule.

I hate to think about the prospects of the Dems taking over the House, let alone the Senate, too. If you think the government is fighting itself now, just imagine what it would look like were a serious impeachment challenge to be launched against President Bush. The only upside would be that it might well seal the Democrats fate as a failed party in the eyes of voters. They'd be given a chance to lead and all they could effectively do is seek revenge for Clinton, who was rightfully impeached. The Dems really do seem to have poor political instincts these days, not that the Republicans are exactly getting it right.

But, according to Cost, no worries, it seems.

I made my case a while back that all of the early talk of a change in the House or Senate was being grossly exaggerated if you looked at the history.

My heavens! The Dems had a two digit lead in this important indicator of electoral strength during much of 1996??? Those poor Republicans must have been thrashed!!

Not so:

The Republicans made a net gain of two seats in the Senate

Democrats won a net of two seats from Republicans in the House

And the Dems were up two digits again in 1998? Damn! So much for the Reagan revolution and the Contract for America.

Oh, wait a minute:

The U.S. Senate election, 1998 was a roughly even contest between the Republican and Democratic parties. The balance of the Senate remained unchanged at 55-45 in favor of the Republicans.

It was a major disappointment to the Republican Party, which was expecting to gain seats due to the "six year itch" effect observed in the midterm elections held during the second terms of presidents such as Wilson, F. Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Nixon/Ford. Instead, the GOP lost a handful of seats to the Democratic Party, but retained a narrow majority in the House.

Comments

[mamalove]

rightfully impeached? bush lies and takes away our civil liberties daily. come on.

[Dan]

Yes, but GOD makes him do it, see? So, it's okay. ; )

[Althor]

The "Conservative Base" in the "Red States" has been too busy, for almost a year now, following up on that
"International Incident" on which "the fate of the world depends," "the disappearance of Natalee Holloway in Aruba," and now with the alleged "Duke Lacrosse rape" (apparently the "victim" wasn't paid enough for her services, so that constitutes "rape"!) to be able to worry about such petty things as the "issues," or the "upcoming elections," while Democrats, who for the most part could give a rat's ass about Natalee and the Lacrosse Team and their "Exotic Dancers" , have slowly but surely obstructed, undermined, defamed and sabotaged all of the Administrations policies unrelentingly !!!

What is truly ironic, is that Fox News, which is the one and only voice for most Conservatives in the Media, has been the most aggressive in devoting itself 24/7 to the coverage of those two sordid cases, instead of focusing on the issues, and the Democrat's underhandedness!!!

Wouldn't be surprised if to inject new controversy into the defunct Natalee Holloway case Fox would spin about wether the Duke players knew Joran and the Kalpoe brothers and "assisted" them in "raping" Natalee as she "came in and out of conciousness"...one of their favorite subjects of morbosity....until Republicans loose the House and the Senate in November!!! So much for Fox's "Conservative Bias"!
The only thing Fox cares about is just accursed "ratings," that's all!!!

Althor