What bin Laden Reveals

Counterterrorism blog lists ten key points taken from recent audio being attributed to Osama bin Laden. Beginning with those points, let's think about what they might reveal.

Hamas: Despite the fact that we (including Ayman Zawahiri) warned (Muslim Palestinians) not to take part in elections in general, the victory of Hamas shows ...

Despite its visibility in the West and Europe, al Qaida obviously doesn't have some grand political influence in the region. Radical Islamic terrorism does not present the solid front some might think. When there are divisions, intelligence operations can often exploit them.

2. The public (in the West and the US), despite our warnings, continues to reelect these Governments, pay taxes to these Governments, and send their children to fight against us. They (civilians) are therefore part of the war against us. They are responsible for any harm that would be caused to them.

A rationale to attack civilians, certainly. But also a sense of acknowledgment, if not frustration that at least some governments and countries are not caving in. Also a clear attempt to manipulate public opinion. Stop electing those who stand up to us and we won't attack you (the civilian). However, we need to be mindful that they attacked us long before we were actively confronting them as we are now. Appeasement wouldn't bring safety, it never has.

3. Sudan: The Bashir Government is failing in stopping the Crusader War in Sudan. The Crusaders (Britain) has pushed the southerners (Blacks) to separate. The US has armed them and is supporting them. And now, because of tribal tensions in Darfour, the Crusaders are planning on intervening there. We are calling on the Jihadists to fight them in Darfour and Southern Sudan

Iraq may eventually, if not already be lost as a front for the war.We need to start moving the ground. If we do it fast enough, it might even help us in Iraq. It also suggests al Qaida doesn't presently enjoy the support, or see the terrorist activity in that region it wants.

4. Long War: We're calling on all Jihadists, particularly in Sudan and the Arabian Peninsula to prepare themselves for a long war.

In essence, al Qaida can't "win" this war. Their only hope is to be around when America gets tired of prosecuting it.

5. Danish Cartoons: We are asking the Danish Government to remit the Cartoonists to al Qaida.

This is, in a sense, a cry for legitimacy for al Qaida and for Shiria Law. It's the heart of the matter, really. And one only has to envision a world dominated by Shiria Law to understand why it is we must continue to fight. Millions of free thinkers would be exterminated if this bunch ever has its way.

6. Saudis: We criticize the Saudi Monarch for refuting the idea of Clash of civilization. There is a clash led by the West against Islam.

A populist plea to fuel the concept of separation of church and state as regards many current Middle east leaders and pave the way for the Islamic faith to replace them, resulting in only the church and nothing more as an over-riding authority. Combating that type of thinking is precisely why America was founded and partly why we are their worst nightmare.

7. Arab Liberals: Jihadists must silence the Arab and Muslim liberals. (A list has been established, but it wasn't aired).

They aren't even winning the idea war among their own. Ultimately, that Muslim on Muslim violence could be al Qaida's undoing. But they have no real alternative. The risk would be being under-mined from within.

8. Education: We warn from any change that would affect the educational curriculum in the Arab and Muslim world.

Education, read in part wahhabism is their recruitment tool. It's vital to their long-term survival and a critical front in the GWOT. We have to get Muslim states to stop breeding hate and intolerance into their youth. Al Qaida's fear of moderation in this regard demonstrates its importance.

9. Arab TV: We warn against those TV stations airing into the region and propagating Crusader propaganda.

An acknowledgment that they can't fight democratic ideals with their ideology. Their only hope is to isolate some number of the population and indoctrinate it. But they can't keep that genie in a bottle in this day and age, especially with technology transmitting Western ideals. Al al Qaida can't establish the infrastructure to do this on its own. It must rely on Middle Eastern states. The influx of some notable western reporters into Al Jazeera, for instance, is probably a significant threat for al Qaida, as much as some in the West have seen it as a betrayal of sorts by journalists.

10: Truce: We offered a truce to the West (US and Europe) but their public refused to accept it. They will only blame themselves.

Peace on the terms of only one party isn't a truce, it's surrender. And al Qaida's pathetic ideology doesn't allow room for genuine compromise.

One can parse the statements several different ways. But its important to note that this isn't the usual triumphant sounding tract from bin Laden. In short - they are losing. And they are losing on many fronts. Too many for them to maintain, unless the West simply loses the will to fight.

Comments

[Tosh]

This must be a fake, wag the dog Osama. Some of our loftiest academics assure us that it is all about Israel, and if Israel would only do x, cease to exist, blah blah blah, the world would sing Kumbaya together.

[splashtc]

A Canadian farmer, Osama bin Laden, and an American
engineer are working together one day. They come across a lantern and a
Genie pops out of it. "I will give each of you one wish" says the Genie.
The Canadian says, "I am a farmer. I want the land to be forever fertile in Canada." Pooooof!
With the blink of the Genie's eye, the land in Canada was forever made fertile for farming.
Osama bin Ladin was amazed, so he said, "I want a wall around Afghanistan,
Iraq and Iran so that no infidels, Jews or Americans can come into our
precious state." Pooooof! Again, with the blink of the Genie's eye, there was a huge wall around those countries.
The American engineer says, "I am very curious. Please tell me more about this wall." The Genie explains, "Well, it's about 5000 feet high, 500 feet thick and completely surrounds the country. Nothing can get in or out -- it's virtually impenetrable."

The American engineer says, "Fill it with water."

 

[Tosh]

"10: Truce: We offered a truce to the West (US and Europe) but their public refused to accept it. They will only blame themselves.

Peace on the terms of only one party isn't a truce, it's surrender. And al Qaida's pathetic ideology doesn't allow room for genuine compromise."

Offereing a truce is a sign of weakness on Osama's part. In the Islamist mind there is no "peace" until the world submits to Islam. The struggle is perpetual jihad, not unlike some Marxists' perpetual class war. Truces are permissible if done with the intent of saving oneself for future jihad.

[hobo]

Thank you, splashtc. I needed that.

[ytba]

Nice analysis! Don't you wish our CIA were capable of same?