Iranian Nukes - 16 Days, Or 10 Years?

I avoided the 16 days headlines as they really are misleading. Yes, 16 days after going from 164 to 54,000 centrifuges in array.

Estimates of the time frame to accomplish that appear to be anywhere from 5 to 15 years. Washington has it at from 5 - 10 years.

So, what to make of that? Well, given that just the announcement has spiked oil up around $70 a barrel, I'd say Iran is already wielding something of a potentially devastating weapon. But then, that's been true for some time.

On top of that, we do have to acknowledge that they unexpectedly went from 0 to 164 overnight. Truth be told, I doubt we have a 100% certain take on where they are in the grand nuclear scheme of things, regardless of how many experts one polls.

There's another problem, too. All of the talk has been about missiles and nuclear bombs. We know that enough radioactive material let loose in the US in the form of a dirty bomb could cause enough problems in and of itself. Though not as much as perhaps some fear.

However, certain other radioactive materials, dispersed in the air, could contaminate up to several city blocks, creating fear and possibly panic and requiring potentially costly cleanup. Prompt, accurate, non-emotional public information might prevent the panic sought by terrorists.

A second type of RDD might involve a powerful radioactive source hidden in a public place, such as a trash receptacle in a busy train or subway station, where people passing close to the source might get a significant dose of radiation.

A dirty bomb is in no way similar to a nuclear weapon. The presumed purpose of its use would be therefore not as a Weapon of Mass Destruction but rather as a Weapon of Mass Disruption.

The bottom line, as they say, is that some bad people have some very bad stuff. And no one should want them to have it, let alone more of it. This isn't a problem we are going to have to deal with tomorrow. But it isn't going to be long before we do.

I'm not sure how to compare where Iran is today to where Iraq was when Israel took out their reactor. But we can be sure that Iran is not going to be permitted to get that far. As I said the other day, it isn't a question of if. It's simply a matter of who and when.

And if we do decide to foster enough mayhem to hopefully precipitate a regime change, now might be a good time to start thinking about how, too. I assume that's why Washington is planning.