Re-Thinking The Natalee Holloway Disappearance

A quick note before I start, Greta is on TV talking about the ABC video. This was a casino video - Beth knew it existed. What does it say about Fox's actual reporting that it came from another network after all this time? If you really think Greta Van Sustern is some kind of an actual news reporter, you must be daft.

Many of the followers of the Natalee Holloway case seem to have had it ingrained into them via cable news that Joran Van Der Sloot is a murderer and a rapist. No other answer will do. However, there are some good reasons to reflect back on events and at least contemplate another possibility, if not two or three. But I'll only deal with one here. Is it possible one or both of the Kalpoes raped and murdered Natalee Holloway and had help to hide the crime?

Let's review some facts and some items, even if they can't be confirmed as true.

Fact, starting with an outrageous report from Geraldo Rivera, cable news cast Joran Van Der Sloot as a devil long before there was any proof. And, actually, there never has been any proof of such a thing, other than he lied early in the investigation. People were informed by Geraldo Rivera Joran made and sold a pornographic video featuring underage girls - not true. We've been told there is a long line of Aruban girls who claim Joran was involved in some rape, or date rape scenario with them, but none have been produced.

At the same time I did conduct personal interviews with two separate females who either knew Van Der Sloot or dated him. One was living in the US at the time, far from any intimidation or threat. Those interviews gave no such impression of an evil Joran, in fact, the opposite. And there was also an American girl, however misguided, who spoke out favorably on his behalf.

Based upon the facts I know to be true, versus the hyperbole of cable news, there's simply no way for me to conclude Van Der Sloot is an evil rapist or murderer. And if there were, I would say so.

Like it or not, Fox and Natalee's Mother gave everyone a villain before there was any actual proof of a crime. Even the Mountain Brook students who encountered Joran spoke well of him until the story began to be shaped in a narrative designed more to hold an audience, than to inform.

So, suppose the assertion that Satish Kalpoe did drive Joran home that night is true. I've heard there is reason to believe it from actual police reports, despite the denials of the Kalpoe attorney. The fact is, if he admitted it, it would put his clients in a real bind.

Consider this. If either of the Kalpoes drove Joran home, not only would they know he left Natalee alive, but he would be over an hour on foot away from her - and he of all of the three boys did not have a access to a vehicle. Could Satish have decided to take a quick drive back to the beach where Natalee was left after dropping Joran at home? I can't suggest he did, but I also certainly can't rule it out.

And remember, there are reports, one which I myself passed along, which was apparently confirmed, that the two Kalpoe brothers were cleaning out Deepak's vehicle shortly after Natalee's disappearance. Why would that be if they simply dropped Joran and Natalee off at the beach? Did something go on in that vehicle after Joran was dropped at home?

Also, enter Steve Croes who foolishly stepped in to try and give the boys an alibi. He was not a friend of Joran's. He was a friend of Deepaks, so far as I can tell.

I'm not trying to steer attention away from Van Der Sloot. My interest in this case began like most people's, with a genuine desire to find out the truth of what happened to a missing young girl. That's never changed. I've forced myself to not buy into the unsupported statements, the confusing allegations, not because I don't like someone, but because there was no way for me to see how such things would lead me to the truth.

It's easy to blame someone for a crime you can't prove they committed. It's more difficult to reign in your emotions and insist on solid evidence because it's the only thing which can give you solid answers. When I look at what I personally have been able to learn of the principles in this case, it's more difficult for me to conclude Joran did it, than to conclude he did not.

And if that indeed is the case, it opens up the possibilities to some other interesting scenarios which may not have been as over-zealously pursued. Something happened in or around that beach that night in Aruba. And someone likely knows what it was. And at least one possible reason why we've never gotten answers is because we've been asking the wrong person.

Lastly, a senior criminal interrogator was brought in from Holland. And his reputation was that of one of the best. After significant time going at Joran Van Der Sloot, his conclusion was there likely wasn't anything else there to get.

Whatever the case, unfortunately, while the video tomorrow night on PrimeTime may be compelling for some, I doubt it will yield any of the real answers people want when it comes to the disappearance of Natalee Holloway.

Update: I meant to add this. I realize no matter what I write here, some of you are going to insist everything is the work of those sneaky, scheming Dutch - but it's a fact. Joran has not been cleared as a suspect in this case. If he were actually a good liar, his early lies likely wouldn't have come to light. Fact is, he's a bad liar, apparently.

His Father knows the law. I have a difficult time believing his Father would allow him to go on TV for an extended interview now of any kind, with any restriction, given that one misstatement captured on tape could put him back in jail. Based on logic, it's difficult to conclude he has anything to hide.

Maybe he does. But if he did and he was my son, he wouldn't go near a television studio under any conditions until he was cleared as a suspect and not subject to re-arrest.

Comments

[Arubaanse]

I have never trusted Steve Croes...My brother knows him and boy I didn't hear great things about him. But I don't know him so, it could be false too.

[Arubaanse]

Natalee where art thou??

[Mike]

Man....I would just love to see some facts in this case...why ole why did the Arubans wait 10 days to finally try and get some...if there was anything in that car they ley it slip away. This is one of the most depressing cases I have ever seen or heard about.

[COLUMBO]

It was obvious that NH went with Joran voluntarily, but he has only recently revealed that their first stop was at his house. This is very interesting because PVDS never said that JVDS had returned home between 11 & 4. More interesting is the fact that the only reported live sighting of the 3 was in Deepak's car behind the racquet club slightly before 3-WITHOUT NH!

Far be it for me to "JUDGE"

[purplasia14]

I would just like to say that I loved reading this. finally a little bit of rational speaking about this case! It is so frustrating to watch all these people who have just decided that these people are murderers and rapist and that they deserve no right to speak about their own actions that night. There is definitely no proof that has been shown in this case and that is sad. What is sader to me is to realize how many people would actually condemn people of such crimes with no proof of their guilt! Doesnt that scare the hell out of ya?? I mean what if you had these people on a jury and you were the one they were after? It is crazy! At least you will speak in rational terms for the most part. :) Maybe some other bloggers could take a step back and do the same. Thanks! :)

[Ruddy]

The reason no one is breaking is because they are all 3 involved.

Look at the tape Dan, nothing there other than Natale talking on her cell, no win me money Joran, let's drink Joran, etc.

What if she really was a virgin? What if it got messy, what if daddy helped?

The evidence we have is he lies alot and she left with him and he was the last known man to be with her.

The civil suit will not be thrown out and the questions will be hard and straight forward and the story will continue to change.

Thank God for people like Beth, she has the focus and has her target and until the target proves otherwise, he is the number 1 suspect.

[none]

Thanks for posting this. After all these months, it's nice to hear some informed impressions. I still think there is some other as of yet unthought of explanation for her disappearance.

It will be intesting to see the ABC spin on this story tomorrow night. From the lead in on the online video (the anchors discussing the case), it looks as though they are going in with the Joran lying angle. Let's hope they will be more objective than FOX.

[none]

Opps, sorry meant to say:

Thanks for posting this. After all these months, OF NO NEWS AND NOTHING NEW ON THE CASE it's nice to hear some informed impressions.

[Robert]

Dan thanks for the contribution. The entire lynch mentality of some people is a real fright to me. There is no evidence that Joran is the demon they paint him. Justice is the goal and you certainly do your part in trying to make it happen. Joran seems to be a normal teen with some crazy teen ways. Like most teens his judgment could use some experience.

[Justicefornatalee]

If Joran is innocent, why didn't he point the finger at the Kalpoes immediately?
Why would he cover for them or sit in jail without ratting them out?
It seems that Joran is involved in some way.

[n/s]

this is a great post dan! thanks.

[david]

What about the statements coming from the police chief of Aruba, Gerold Dompig, who said Joran admitted to a felony in regards to his conduct with Natalee that night? Is he just a totally inept cop who is wrong about such a critical fact of the investigation, or did Joran actually admit to something that amounted to some sort of sexual felony?

[R. Decker]

Didn't I read somewhere-that Natalee walked out of C & C' s on Satish kalpoes arm? Or am I wrong there?

[COLUMBO]

TRIBUTE TO ABC

ABC duped by Powerball lottery winner hoax

Posted: Today, 12:59 pm
Powerball

The brief hoax involving a man claiming to be an out-of-work truck driver who won the $365 million Powerball jackpot was months in the making.

It involved two men who have jerked the chains of the national news media for years and was financed by a Texas author seeking publicity for his books, one of the pranksters said Tuesday.

"We had decided that one of these days, there'll be a record jackpot, and we'll have to go," said Bob Pagani, who portrayed the unemployed man who spent $2,000 on Monday buying food for everyone at a Lincoln restaurant.

Pagani said he is a former disc jockey and book editor who lives near Pacific City, Ore. He confessed Tuesday to the hoax but said he felt no guilt.

"We spent a lot of money buying people's lunches. They had a thrill. . . . Nobody got hurt," he said. "It's kind of like a magic trick - a magician lies to you."

Pagani walked into a Village Inn on Monday afternoon, announced that he was the winner and bought a round of meals. The news media were apparently summoned by a restaurant employee. "Good Morning America" and "World News Tonight," among others, did on-camera interviews with Pagani.

Pagani said the hoax was hatched in conjunction with Alan Abel, a Connecticut prankster and drummer who started staging hoaxes in a 1959 appearance on the "Today" show, according to his Web site.

"Every once in a while, he has a wild hair," Pagani said.

He said the timing was per-fect because of the Presidents Day holiday. It closed the Nebraska Lottery office, delaying any official announcement. Because it was a record jackpot, a news media frenzy seemed guaranteed.

The hoax started falling apart as reporters questioned discrepancies in Pagani's story, including how the ticket was purchased. He said he chose the numbers, but lottery officials said the winning ticket was a computer-generated "Quick Pick."

Pagani said he flew in from Oregon on Sunday night and drove to Lincoln on Monday. Two other people, who said they were Pagani's son and niece, also flew in.

Pagani said Joe Vitale, who identified himself as an Austin, Texas, author, financed the hoax - paying for the airline tickets and two nights of motel stays in Omaha, as well as the $2,000 for all the meals at Village Inn.

Before he flew home Tuesday, Pagani said he gets the same thrill from hoaxes as someone who collects stamps.

"With this, I can say I was in the New York Times, the Washington Post and on Good Morning America."

[COLUMBO]

that's twice in one week!

[RstJ]

"Look at the tape Dan, nothing there other than Natale talking on her cell"

Which is pretty damned significant since it shows that Natalee had a working cellphone that night. Yeah, I know, she didn't take it with her to CnCs. Sure she didn't.

Dan, I hope you're not totally beholden to your sources on this one, but what were you finally able to determine about the cell phone call(s) Natalee made?

RstJ

[david r]

I think they went by Joran's house for condoms. I've read that many of the girls were "competing" with sexual experiences on the trip, and perhaps Natalee wanted something to talk about with her homies. It may be b/s, but a young girl's first experiences can be just as clumsy and ill-conceived as a young boy's. Some young girls go overboard on the booze to deal with the stress and anticipation. I don't know if Joran is telling the truth or not. Can anyone believe him ? He may be trying to lay it off on the Kalpoes. But the "computer was on" alibi of the Kalpoes has always sounded suspect. IMO, they all had sex with her. Perhaps Deepak flipped out when she would not have sex with him, and punched her out. He looked the most shattered coming out of jail with his garbage bag. Joran's involvement explains the subsequent failure of ALE to break the case.

[Texasnurse]

Thanks Dan for posting this. I have thought about some of the same things for awhile that you posted.
I agree that several different somethings did occur at or in the beach area. I like most other folks have racked my brains for months and I am still not sure how to fit all the data together as to what actually occured. Keep up the great work.

[JW]

Remember who called Steve Crows the morning of the 30th before 6 am.

[JW]

False alibis have been given for Joran

[JW]

Joran's father would not let the entire property be searched

[annie]

I think you could be on to something here, as, I can't imagine that if boys know there is some young girl sitting alone on a beach, they are going to just leave her like that. Would have thought the beach would have been swarming with boys looking for Natalee if word had been put out that she was alone, but presumably the police would be able to check whether any other friend had been contacted that night by the brothers or Joran. Could this also have something to do with a report (if true), of a distressed girl running along a beach, and also some kind of incident near Natalee's hotel that night, involving a girl and two men in a car? Was Natalee subsequently taken to some other beach that was more secluded?

[danascully]

Thanks again Dan for a well written report. It's got to be obvious to anyone who wants to see it that justice is your main goal of this scenario, and you are not favoring one side over the other!

[Richardsimmons]

You don't leave a girl on the beach at 2 AM, or whatever time it was, all by herself. It does not make any sense whatsoever. Anyone with a conscience would make sure she's escorted back to her hotel, unless he handed her off to someone else for whatever ill-conceived purpose or pleasure. The answers lie in the actions taken by the suspects.

[annie]

What was he supposed to do if she refused to go back to her hotel, carry her back kicking and screaming? With hindsight he probably wishes he had, but as he said it was not secluded, and there were other people around.

[wreck]

Follow some logic --
Here after 9 months, the Kalpoes and Joran have a major descrepancy in their stories. The Kalpoes claim they were both at home and did NOT take Joran home. Joran says Satish drove him home. At least one of the three is lying -- but which one? I submit to you that the one telling the truth would rat out the one lying to save their own skin. Why after all this time and with jail stays for each; has this not happened?

Logic tells me it is because NONE of the three can afford for the truth to come out. I believe all THREE have some degree of culpability.

[Richardsimmons]

What was he supposed to do if she refused to go back to her hotel, carry her back kicking and screaming? With hindsight he probably wishes he had, but as he said it was not secluded, and there were other people around.

Posted by: annie | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:32 PM

Good point and you could be right, but consider this: If she refused to go back and he was concerned about her well being, he would have communicated this fact immediately to the Aruban Polis upon questioning. But he didn't. It took a long time to admit that he was with her on the beach.

[hardyandtiny]

Any confirmation/proof that Joran said Satish picked him up that night? What's the source of that statement?

[wreck]

Good point and you could be right, but consider this: If she refused to go back and he was concerned about her well being, he would have communicated this fact immediately to the Aruban Polis upon questioning. But he didn't. It took a long time to admit that he was with her on the beach.

Posted by: Richardsimmons | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:37 PM
Excellent point! If this was the actual scenario -- Joran would be screaming this to the polis from day 1.

[Richardsimmons]

Wreck- excellent BIG picture analysis!

[wreck]

Any confirmation/proof that Joran said Satish picked him up that night? What's the source of that statement?

Posted by: hardyandtiny | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:39 PM
It was in Joran's interview from the Dutch TV show "NOVA" this past weekend.

[annie]

Like he said 'Richardsimmons', Joran thought that when she had not turned up she may have gone off with some beach bum. Apparently, there was such a guy around too, who had a boat. What a puzzle this is!!!

[Richardsimmons]

Like he said 'Richardsimmons', Joran thought that when she had not turned up she may have gone off with some beach bum. Apparently, there was such a guy around too, who had a boat. What a puzzle this is!!!

Posted by: annie | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:41 PM

But Annie dearest.....that is something you would tell the police- and the rabid Holloway clan showing up at your front door- immediately. "I was with her and left her there and there were a lot of people around et..etc"...no get off my back! But the fact that releasing information was almost like getting a root canal to this kid tells me that he's going against the laws of common sense.

[Bigfish]

Logic tells me it is because NONE of the three can afford for the truth to come out. I believe all THREE have some degree of culpability.

Posted by: wreck | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:35 PM

Corpus Delicti! No evidence no case. Aruba is not Alabama or California.

BF

[annie]

No, 'Richardsimmons', that is what you would are thinking he should have done, but as you can't imagine leaving Natalee alone on the beach in the first place, you can't get inside the mindset of Joran, although you still have not adequately answered how he was supposed to get Natalee back to the hotel if she did not want to go back.

[wreck]

Corpus Delicti! No evidence no case. Aruba is not Alabama or California.

BF

Posted by: Bigfish | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:51 PM
We are not arguing there is no evidence (yet). We are making SENSE of what most likely happened. Lack of evidence only means a lack of a possible conviction. It has NOTHING to with what truly happened. "Not Guilty" does not mean "Innocent."

[wreck]

No, 'Richardsimmons', that is what you would are thinking he should have done, but as you can't imagine leaving Natalee alone on the beach in the first place, you can't get inside the mindset of Joran, although you still have not adequately answered how he was supposed to get Natalee back to the hotel if she did not want to go back.

Posted by: annie | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:57 PM
If this is what truly happened (Natalee was kicking and screaming to stay) -- no one would blame Joran for leaving. RS is trying to tell you that Joran would be screaming this to the Polis from the very start if it was true and happened that way.

[annie]

No, 'Wreck', this is only what 'could' have occured if Joran had tried to remove Natalee from the beach. According to Joran, she wanted to stay and look at the stars or something! So, he let her! It is no crime to do that, but not something he wanted to admit in front of Jug & Co, so he lied and said he had taken her back to the hotel, which is what 'Richardsimmons' would have done apparently!! However, if 'Richardsimmons' had left her, he would have admitted it, (and gotten his nose busted by Jug probably)!!

[kim]

the first news reports that i listened to were on see-bs. this nbc guy is claiming that joran isn't going to like the show tomorrow night (wth). anyway, i'm always concerned with the quiet types, the ones who don't look in the camera, the one's who never talk. it appears that satish was let off the hook early and by everyone. personally, i would have zoomed in on the guy. funny though, everytime i try and look at other suspects, look for other answers, i'm brought right back to joran. hopefully one day we will know.

[ViVi]

Logic tells me it is because NONE of the three can afford for the truth to come out. I believe all THREE have some degree of culpability.

Posted by: wreck | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:35 PM

I agree.

No personal offense, Dan, but your logic is backwards; starting from a conclusion or hypothesis and wrapping arguments around it.

What do we KNOW, not much:

1. Natalee was last seen alive with the three boys.
2. No one has seen Natalee, dead or alive, since she left with the three boys.
3. All three boys have admittedly lied about their interactions with Natalee on the nite she disappeared.
4. The boys TOGETHER came up with a detailed lie to exculpate themselves and divert suspicion on 2 other men, who were in fact jailed and later released.
5. Joran's version appears to be changing in details still, and the three boys' stories do not coincide with one another. At least one version is false.
6. Joran admitted to having sexual contact with Natalee (I believe, not sure). Joran now states there was no sexual contact.
7. There are no other known suspects at all.

That's it. Not enough to pin the crime on any of the three, but not enough to rule them out.

Now, add the layers of rumor, speculation and emotion to what we know. Beth lied; Beth only wants to hang Joran whether he did it or not; Joran is a bad liar; Joran would be unwise to go on TV if he had something to hide; Natalee had a dark side; other people say Joran was a nice guy; Joran was only 17 and should have cracked under police questioning; Beth is only in it for fame, money, attention, revenge [fill in the blank]; Beth is making money off donations; Fox is only after ratings; Beth was mean to Deepak at his employment; It's odd that a 17 year old (and friends) could commit the perfect crime; Paulus wasn't obligated to have his property searched; Natalee used a cell phone at the casino, and her cell phone was found in her room; Natalee was drunk and chasing Joran; Natalee shouldnt have gotten in a car with strangers; Natalee's friends should have stopped her; the MB kids have been ominously quiet; the chaperones have been ominously quiet; Joran was an honor student, Natalee wasnt; Joran was a minor, Natalee wasnt; Natalee did belly shots; Natalee wasnt a virgin, etc, ad infinitum.

Assume every item in that list is stipulated as true--what does that change? Absolutely nothing. We are still left with the few facts that we have known for 8 months:

1. Natalee was last seen alive with the three boys.
2. No one has seen Natalee, dead or alive, since she left with the three boys.
3. All three boys have admittedly lied about their interactions with Natalee on the nite she disappeared.
4. The boys TOGETHER came up with a lie to exculpate themselves and divert suspicion on 2 security guards, who were in fact jailed and later released.
5. Joran's version appears to be changing in details still, and the three boys' stories do not coincide with one another. At least one version is false.
6. Joran admitted to having sexual contact with Natalee (I believe, not sure). Joran now states there was no sexual contact.
7. There are no other known suspects at all.

Based on those few facts, there's no way to conclude with confidence what, if any, role Joran and the Kalpoes played in the disappearance of Natalee Holloway. To be so adamantly entrenched and dug in in support of guilt or innocence is blind IMO.

[TYLER]

the first news reports that i listened to were on see-bs.

LOL !!! Kim that was an excellent one !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Skye]

To be so adamantly entrenched and dug in in support of guilt or innocence is blind IMO.

Posted by: ViVi | Thursday, February 23, 2006 at 12:09 AM

You can say that but your posts indicate that you believe the lies and rumors and lean toward Joran as completely innocent disregarding his lies.

Innocent people do not have to lie.

[stilltryin]

Some bulbs take longer to root and shoot up their greens,,and even longer to blossom.Factors..condition of the bulb,the soil,the weather,etc. And so it is with the kernel of truth that is embedded in at least one if not more of the adults is Aruba at that time. Residents, tourists and MT Brook secret holders. One day the contions will allow for the blossom of truth to emerge.TIME
ps
I wish someone would write a simplistic way to get on the keypad site.

[ViVi]

You can say that but your posts indicate that you believe the lies and rumors and lean toward Joran as completely innocent disregarding his lies.

Innocent people do not have to lie.

Posted by: Skye | Thursday, February 23, 2006 at 12:24 AM

You're 100% wrong, which is somewhat comforting to me as I'm pleased that I dont come across as biased as I perhaps am.

I believe the facts point to culpability on Joran's part. I absolutely do not disregard his lies, and in fact I believe that is the most telling evidence to date aside from the three boys being the last ones with Natalee.

[annie]

If Dan is on the right track with this one, it would mean that Natalee might still have been alive if Joran had called his father to come and give him a lift, instead of calling his friends.

[Annalisa]

Dan, thanks for this post! I was wondering the same thing yesterday!! After seeing the video from the casino I wondered if it were possible that one of the other brothers actually committed the deed. What do they call it? Reasonable doubt??? I'm beginning to wonder... as one of those "sneaky, scheming Dutch"! :o) (smile) Annalisa

[hardyandtiny]

Any confirmation/proof that Joran said Satish picked him up that night? What's the source of that statement?

Posted by: hardyandtiny | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:39 PM
It was in Joran's interview from the Dutch TV show "NOVA" this past weekend.

Posted by: wreck | Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 11:41 PM

Okay, is it definite? There's absolutely no doubt that he said this? Has it been confirmed by others who have seen the interview and understand Dutch? Anyone know if the orginal transcript is available?

[Flying Dutchman]

Those ABC video's don't tell anything (or even suggest it.

Joran entered the casino at 19:51. Natalee entered at 20:58. Yet they sit at a poker-table at 20:25, where they don't even have contact with each other, because 3 of Natalee's friends sit between them.

Where is the footage of them leaving? Is there any footage of them even talking to each other?

Still no proof.

[Bitsey]

I agree, VIVI. Joran should have quit while he was ahead instead of using the American media to try to twist his story yet again to implicate the K boys but not himself. I'm not surprised if customs or the FBI roughed him up. He has no credibility and is easily dislikable.

[Bitsey]

Still no proof.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Thursday, February 23, 2006 at 02:57 AM

There's proof that they were seated near one another and that she wasn't aggressively pursuing him as he's claimed in interviews. There's proof that he said he went to the casino to enter a poker tourney but was videoed playing blackjack and now he's trying to packpedal his story.