Natalee Holloway: Rampant Speculation

Eventually there will be a start to current chronicle of the Holloway case up at The Crime Library. There's an entry of mine there now dealing with certain aspects of the rumor and speculation surrounding the case.

Comments

[Mongo]

Nice article and unbiased too, will anyone ever know what happened? I don't think so.

[VASteve]

Why can't we post to the Natalee chat area anymore? There's no note about it, no reasons for it, nothing. Any clue would be appreciated.

[sensible]

Excellent article, Dan.

[sensible]

Why can't we post to the Natalee chat area anymore? There's no note about it, no reasons for it, nothing. Any clue would be appreciated.

Posted by: VASteve | Dec 8, 2005 4:08:53 PM

Go to the last NH Chat. Somewhere in that forum or the one before there are directions for getting into the new chat area. Dan put us down in the dungeon. You must register at typepad.

[VASteve]

The article is good, it will be nice to see the chronology of events on the site. There's a good one at scrux.com too.

[VASteve]

Posted by: sensible | Dec 8, 2005 4:19:23 PM

Thanks.

[sensible]

Thanks.

Posted by: VASteve | Dec 8, 2005 4:20:32 PM

If you can't get in email me and I'll try to get you there.

[*flo*]

Hope CourtTV is treating you good! Keep up the good reporting;)

[dpa]

A thorough data source related to the case would be helpful. For instance, when Dan completely makes something up - like posting that Beth, in an effort to influence the direction of the investigation, made repeated public statements prior to June 9 calling for the arrest of JVDS and the Kalpoes - the data source would show otherwise, and more people will take that fabrication into consideration when reading his "journalism" as a whole.

[SL]

YIKES.. Dan.. You've done it *again* (BTW, thx for correcting this error the previouus 2 times)

It's I.. the teacher... who uses yr blog in the CR.. anyhoo.. over at Crime Library, from the link abve, you have that SAME possessive error. C'mon. You can do it (the right way!)

the student's (sic) flight home would indicate ONE student.. (unless you are referring to Nat's missed flight)

try "the STUDENTS' flight(s) home"

pretttty please...

SL

[moey]

Thanks, interesting read. I don't know if anyone has been to Harry Tho site, but there is an interesting article and several extremely interesting posts regarding possible scenarios.

I don't know if she planned anything ahead of time or not, but I am becoming more and more convinced that this is not a case of a dead US citizen in Aruba. There is absolutely no forensic evidence to substantiate a murder theory and I don't think these three boys (even with the help of some adults) are sophisticated enough to carry out the perfect crime.

Also, Joran made a very interesting comment to the journalist that caught him 'on the fly' at college in the Netherlands. He said something to the effect of "I will tell the whole story some day." So I think he knows more, but I don't think it has to do with the demise of Natalee. I don't think Beth Twitty is willing to open up the possibility that perhaps Natalee wasn't this "happy go lucky girl" from Mountain Brook. I think there is a lot of stuff that runs very deep, but I am not sure if we will ever know about it. IMHO

[Dan]

pretttty please...

I would, unfortunately, I don't have editing capabilities at CL. : (

[VASteve]

Posted by: sensible | Dec 8, 2005 4:28:51 PM
Hi, I registered, and I was signed in, and I go to the test blog area but it never gives me a lace to post like this. It keeps telling me to sign in, I click on the sign in link and it redirects me back to the test blog side every time. I can't tell if I'm logged in or what.

Thanks!

[Donnaanna]

Dan, excellent article! I hope they let you keep their site updated on this case. I also saw the other article you wrote about the girl from Maine. That one was also very well done!

[splashtc]

And an alcoholic hooker deserves to die/dissapear?

[Lawdy]

OMG- Dan, I loved your Crime Library contribution on Natalee Holloway. I feel you are very fair, considering both sides, and all the emotions that are attached to the case.

YOU ARE ALSO DROP DEAD GORGEOUS! Sorry, I had to tell you that. You are movie-star handsome. I'm surprised CTV hasn't offered you a show, ... YET!;)

You deserve all the success coming your way. You're a very special and one of the most ethical journalists in my eyes. Congratulations for the CTV gig, and for the excellent job you did there, and the awesome job you do here.

:)

[cc]

I busted a gut when I read the below.

"With no real evidence released to point to one scenario over another, individuals' loyalties to friends, family, country, or even what one watches on television seem to dictate people's opinions, rather than the few known facts."

You do realize that most people shake their head and think the same of you when they read your support of talking heads over facts when related to the failed, wrongheaded and ineptly executed action that is our invasion of Iraq, yes? High high irony there.

[greenwing]

VASteve - after you sign in using typekey and the blog page refreshes, hit refresh on your browser. That should open a posting box like this one.

[scubajap]

A thorough data source related to the case would be helpful. For instance, when Dan completely makes something up - like posting that Beth, in an effort to influence the direction of the investigation, made repeated public statements prior to June 9 calling for the arrest of JVDS and the Kalpoes - the data source would show otherwise, and more people will take that fabrication into consideration when reading his "journalism" as a whole.

Posted by: dpa | Dec 8, 2005 5:15:42 PM
And how do you know what she was doing here in Aruba?
THE DAY AFTER THEY SHOWED UP AT THE V/D SLOOTS HOUSE THEY WERE ALREADY TELLING PEOPLE THE POLICE SHOULD ARREST THEM.
They went to the ISA and put "ask Joran v/d Sloot what happened" on the posters they put around the school.
Just because the cable news networks didn't pick it up yet, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

[letsbefair]

THE DAY AFTER THEY SHOWED UP AT THE V/D SLOOTS HOUSE THEY WERE ALREADY TELLING PEOPLE THE POLICE SHOULD ARREST THEM.
They went to the ISA and put "ask Joran v/d Sloot what happened" on the posters they put around the school.
Just because the cable news networks didn't pick it up yet, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Posted by: scubajap | Dec 8, 2005 8:55:53 PM

Wanting them arrested would be consistent with the infamous "Deepak Email"

According to Jug on Fox, it was the ISA students that were writing "ask Joran Van Der Sloot" on the posters.

Hey Scuba,

Did you ever talk to Edmond Croes from Top 95.1 about the "abduction from the beach" witnesses?

[WhattaBurger]

Had no idea Dan was so nice looking. Very talented writer.

[CitizenDick]

Good article Dan.

The important thing to keep in mind about Beth Twitty is that it appears she came to the conclusion very early on that publicity would be necessary to a resolution of this case. The publicity of the Smart kidnapping was still fresh and the outcome very good.

She quickly realized that the news media won't replay the same story over so she became very, very adept at manipulation by making even the most minute point into a new story and creating news where none existed.

Her major tactical mistake was to turn her frustrations into antaganism against the Aruba authorities. Secondarily, the people she has associated with are less than upstanding in a lot of cases. She decided that controversy was as acceptable as anything because it created news stories. You never saw those mistakes with the Smarts and they always had full public support. Beth needed the full public support of Arubans if any new leads were to be developed and she has blown it it seems.

[annie]

Very interesting read Dan. However, I am wondering why Beth Holloway is fixated on Joran and Co, when it appears that the jogger who the police had to search for, is some sort of 'rapist or murderer'!!! Given that, how comes he is not the one to be first in the line of suspects??? Or is this considered to be just another strange anomoly that this case has thrown up, and the investigators have gotten to be as fixated as Beth.

[shonane]

Hey Dan. That's the first time I have ever seen a picture of you. You are a good looking man. Have all your hair too!

[cindi in pa]

Nice job Dan, very well written.

I predict many a possible rides in your future ;)

[Not a Hand Wringer]

Dan that was a very interesting article you wrote. Framed against the VF article, I feel as though I'm getting the most 'realistic' picture yet, of what transpired in Aruba over the last 6 during the Natalee investigation.

Best of success to you in the future as you continue to expand your web-exposure outside of your blog.

[Not a Hand Wringer]

YIKES.. Dan.. You've done it *again* (BTW, thx for correcting this error the previouus 2 times)

It's I.. the teacher... who uses yr blog in the CR.. anyhoo.. over at Crime Library, from the link abve, you have that SAME possessive error. C'mon. You can do it (the right way!)

the student's (sic) flight home would indicate ONE student.. (unless you are referring to Nat's missed flight)

try "the STUDENTS' flight(s) home"

pretttty please...

SL

Posted by: SL | Dec 8, 2005 5:27:45 PM
______________________________________

If Dan is smart, he'll blame the mistakes on the copy readers and his editor!

[Dan]

it appears that the jogger who the police had to search for, is some sort of 'rapist or murderer'!!! Given that, how comes he is not the one to be first in the line of suspects???

I've wonderred about that, too - but given the way the system works down there - I'm not assuming he isnt on their radar.

[DeathCabForCutie]

A good article:

"and the focus of growing international tension."

as long as this is unresolved , it will remain so.

[April]

I'm starting to see bumper stickers that read: Boycott Aruba, vacation in US.

[jolari]

Nice job (again) Thanks

[danascully]

Excellent article! And the picture of you is nice, too!!!!

[dpa]

"And how do you know what she was doing here in Aruba?
THE DAY AFTER THEY SHOWED UP AT THE V/D SLOOTS HOUSE THEY WERE ALREADY TELLING PEOPLE THE POLICE SHOULD ARREST THEM.
They went to the ISA and put "ask Joran v/d Sloot what happened" on the posters they put around the school.
Just because the cable news networks didn't pick it up yet, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Posted by: scubajap | Dec 8, 2005 8:55:53 PM"

So Beth told a couple of people that those last seen with Natalee - lying about their alibi - should be picked up. And a few flyers left at Joran's school suggested that he knew something about the disappearance (BTW, the cable news networks did pick that up).

Sorry, but this falls way short of a massive campaign to get JVDS and the Kalpoes arrested. There is nothing here that represents pressure that ALE would be unable to withstand.

Show me statements prior to June 9 from Beth or other family members to Aruban media that demand ALE arrest JVDS and the Kalpoes. Because I've checked wire articles and transcripts from U.S. media sources from that time, and there's nothing like that in them.

Show evidence of appeals to political entities or other powerful Aruban interests for such an action.

And most importantly... show me similar evidence of how Beth forced ALE to arrest Mickey John and Abraham Jones. Because without that, Dompig's main argument (now parroted on this site) - that Beth negatively impacted the investigation by forcing the police to stop their standard evidence gathering techniques (surveillence, phone tapping, etc.) - is pretty much shot to hell.

[bamaguy11]

Why can't we post to the Natalee chat area anymore? There's no note about it, no reasons for it, nothing. Any clue would be appreciated.

Posted by: VASteve | Dec 8, 2005 4:08:53 PM

Go to the last NH Chat. Somewhere in that forum or the one before there are directions for getting into the new chat area. Dan put us down in the dungeon. You must register at typepad.

Posted by: sensible | Dec 8, 2005 4:19:23 PM

Wonder why Dan would hide the forum?
Hmmmmm.....could it be to keep the slanderous & ridiculous postings hidden from the RWV general public?

Smart move Dan

[boywonder]

Too funny Dan! To think your finally going to be famous and for rumor and speculation ...sounds about right!

[annie]

Sorry to come back to the jogger again Dan, but wasn't he originally being looked for as a potential witness, as it was said that he jogged in that area about the relevant hours that Natalee went missing. He was not being looked for as a suspect, and now it looks like he has a violent criminal past, possibly involving rape and murder. Even more suspicious, is that he disappeared from his nightly jogging when they started looking for Natalee. If he did come to be a suspect, was he given an alibi, by a wife or partner, and just how much are they worth? - the Yorkshire ripper's wife gave him an alibi several times when he was out doing the deeds. However, it looks like everybody is meant to plod on focusing on Joran and Co. I think Natalee's family has just done much more harm than good by their insistance on getting these three boys plus Joran's dad. I would have wanted this jogger guy checked out BIG TIME if I was Natalee's mum.

[donnaanna]

I think Natalee's family has just done much more harm than good by their insistance on getting these three boys plus Joran's dad. I would have wanted this jogger guy checked out BIG TIME if I was Natalee's mum.

Posted by: annie | Dec 9, 2005 7:05:48 AM

I totally agree. He sounds like a much more likely suspect. That scenario would make a lot more sense if you consider all of the rumors at the time. Did they ever find him?

[gab]

Fact remains-
Natale Holloway is missing while vacationing in Aruba May 30, 2005 Last seen with 3 local men

It is the responsibility of the Aruban LE to work this case and give answers/reports for the world to know where this young lady is or why she did not return home

Funny, how quick the discussion is shut down too when post are made that webmaster may not want to read

Fact is Fact Natalee Holloway is missing- and yes, many from other areas of the world too- but at least most LE are agressive when a case begins and Aruban LE knew within hours that this person was missing and who she was last seen with- it really isn't that difficult of a case now is it? Aruban LE should have asked for assistance from the Netherlands if they could not handle a case of this nature on Day 1~~

[berry]

It seems the family focus was on Joran and K2 early on. I really do not see how anyone can conclude otherwise. Even if they stopped short of accusing the trio of murder, they still never got beyond them only, as knowing what happened to Natalee.

So far as the ASI posters. It clearly was the family who put up posters to point the finger at Joran. He attended the school. Whether students wrote "ask Joran" or not - can Jug Twitty provide an example of the altered poster?

The mere posting at that location, is obviously harrassment of Joran, since a reasonable person would not conclude that the majority of ISA students were out at casinos and C and C's.

The family focus was on Joran. There is no other person of interest - other than K2 - they have ever publicly mentioned, and to pretend otherwise is pointless.

[fokje]

Show me statements prior to June 9 from Beth or other family members to Aruban media that demand ALE arrest JVDS and the Kalpoes. Because I've checked wire articles and transcripts from U.S. media sources from that time, and there's nothing like that in them.
Posted by: dpa | Dec 9, 2005 2:32:31 AM

It's not about (not) withstanding a demand to arrest JvdS and the Kalpoes; it's about the fact that the investigation was hurt already by the demands _in public!_ of the Twitty's. Police was investigating involvement of the 3 (in silence!). That means they gather evidence (without the suspects would know, which often leads to new information which could lead to the arrest). That's how police works. And I bet this has been explained to the Twitty's. But for some reason they didn't trust the Aruban police and did their own way. That's how they have hurted the investigation ALL the time. When the Twitty's would have demanded just in the police station only, that wouldn't have hurt the case.

[berry]

Someone told me last night that Bryan Burroughs of VF stated on TV that "the preponderance of evidence points to Joran". Did anyone hear that too?

I'm just curious, having not yet read VF, what exactly the preponderance of evidence is?

[boywonder]

how could Dan have omitted the speculation that makes most sence? You know just speculating about Paulus going to the Casino with Joran. Do you think Paulus watched Joran put the moves on Natalee or do you think Paulus picked her out and Joran and the cabbies delivered? Come on Dan...how could you leave that out especially since YOU left out the contact YOU had with Joran or was it with Paulus?

[berry]

You don't need public statements in real time from the family to know their focus was on Joran. Is someone actually suggesting it really wasn't?

Clues -

The 3AM descent on the VDS home.

Knowing prior to arriving, that they were looking for a tall Dutch kid.

Submitting a to do list to cops that probably related to Joran and K2 - just my bet.

Posting fliers at Joran's school.

Responding to the supposed confession of a murder and burial near the lighthouse, that was a location allegedly visited by the group.

BT to Joran as she held up Natalee's portrait - "I want my daughter back.", while parked in a van in front of the HI the first night.

[CitizenDick]

Sorry, but this falls way short of a massive campaign to get JVDS and the Kalpoes arrested. There is nothing here that represents pressure that ALE would be unable to withstand.

Posted by: dpa | Dec 9, 2005 2:32:31 AM

From what I've read, the mere public disclosure of any fact would preclude it from being used in a trial. If you go to the crime scene website where Dan posted you will find a similar case in the British Virgin Islands a couple of years before and the Brits cannot say a word either.

Their legal systems are not the US system and the problem is that the Twitty having an American reaction and saying ANYTHING probably put any potential case at risk.

Unfortunately, it appears the publicity campaign decided on very early by the Twittys was probably the worst thing to do in relation to the Dutch judicial system.

This is a very typical example of culture clash and a typical example of how Americans are so enamored with their own culture they fail to understand that others do things differently.

[sunny]

Posted by: dpa | Dec 8, 2005 5:15:42 PM
And how do you know what she was doing here in Aruba?
THE DAY AFTER THEY SHOWED UP AT THE V/D SLOOTS HOUSE THEY WERE ALREADY TELLING PEOPLE THE POLICE SHOULD ARREST THEM.
They went to the ISA and put "ask Joran v/d Sloot what happened" on the posters they put around the school.
Just because the cable news networks didn't pick it up yet, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Posted by: scubajap | Dec 8, 2005 8:55:53 PM

I think that there are many people who suspect that Natalee herself and the Twitty family were part of a pre-arranged plan designed to focus negative press on the MEP government of Aruba. A strategy to call for a boycott of Aruba, as early as mid-July when the Alabama legislature voted, had to have been pre-meditated. Natalee had only been missing for six weeks. And, the investigators, government and people of Aruba were making an enormous effort to find Natalee. I guess they had to get boycott Aruba in before the election. Beth has not been looking for Natalee, as a person, since the beginning. All of her efforts were to direct a negative press campaign against Aruba. Why because Natalee is not missing? The obvious answer is that if the Aruban government starts investigating Beth Twitty they might find out what happened to Natalee and get this over with.

[April]

I remember when Dompig said, he thought the boys were guilty, on Rita's show. That was a few weeks ago. Something smells in Aruba, people are backing off from their own words. I wonder who in Aruba is pressuring Dompig & how much VF paid him for his scathing remarks blaming the family? By the way, VF is geared to middle & upper middle class educated women, who will see right through the irresponsible & unprofessional demeanor of the so called chief of deception!

[annie]

Yes Donnaanna, they did find the jogger, but at the time they were looking for him so that he could give them information re Joran and whether he had seen anything, because, sorry to come back to this, but it seems that the only thing that matters to anybody investigating this, is whether they can find evidence to convict Joran and Co. Everything else seems to be of litte interest, even if you have previously been convicted as a rapist or murderer. It is like tunnel vision, else why haven't they yet tested all the guys around to see whose the DNA was on the toothbrush? Why haven't they yet questioned the other kids Natalee was on the holiday with, all these months later? Many things have changed since they were first asked to give a statement, Why, when there are so many other scenarios for what could have happened to Natalee, is there still this fixation with Joran and co? Did someone say it is because most of the evidence points to him. What evidence?, and seeing as how Joran is the only one they seem to have been concentrating on month after month, how could there be any evidence found against anybody else? It was only Joran and his friends' DNA that was tested, and the DNA on Natalee's toothbrush did not belong to them. Oh, sorry, I forgot, of course, it was not Natalee's toothbrush!!!!(according to Beth that is, who had previously given it over as being Natalee's until she found out there was male DNA on it). All I am saying is that it is about time there was a closer look at others who were around at the time, including the jogger, given the concern of his past actions, and him, I would be very concerned about!!

[bizarre]

Don't you think we need Columbo and the guys from "24" to come in an investigate? After all, the FBI and the arubans have been investigating since the beginning and noone seems to believe that. I don't understand why?

[bizarre]

Almost forgot, dan, the entry for the crime library was excellent. You managed to get it all in and present it in a logical cohensive manner.
Considering the volume of information availabel to you, that was amazing and well written.

[Forreal]

I just read on Aruba's Amigoe news online that arresting the Black dudes was part of the entire investigation strategy.

The recent response by the Beth Media Group to the VF claim that they pressured the early arrest of J2K has been "well did we pressure the immediate arrest of the Black dudes". This makes the ALE look inconsistent.

According to Amigoe, at the beginning they had several suspects (J2K, Black dudes, etc.) and their strategy is to arrest the least likely suspects (since their law allows for this without reasonable evidence) and monitor/follow the main suspect(s).

Now you may disagree with this tactic, but it at least explains the perceived inconsistencies. It seems that they consider at least Joran the as main suspect but they haven't been able to develop the burden of evidence.