H5N1: Has Human To Human Transfer Begun?

This is not good news, if it's confirmed.

Officials in at least two nations now suspect the avian flu bug has mutated into a virus that is being transmitted from human to human – a development world health authorities have estimated could result in the deaths of tens of millions.

Thai health officials have expressed concern that the country's two latest confirmed victims may be the beginning of the much feared human-to-human transmission.

Important Update: Hyscience - I believe the report, and have actually reported of H to H transmission of H5N1 over a year ago - and not picked up on by media and agencies. here, here, and( here which sourced this research report that human to human transmission actually occured in July / early August 2004 -  but not covered by media or agencies)

Comments

[iFlu.org]

Two countries? The first study of human-to-human transmission was published 11 months ago about a case in Vietnam ( http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/4/333 ). Since then we have seen an increase in family clusters in Indonesia, suggesting human-to-human (H2H) transmission, and now Thailand. That makes three countries (excluding China which we have no official data for, and what we have can't be trusted).

Limited H2H has been a fact of life for some time; it's just that the media haven't been interested. The real problem will come when H5N1 becomes efficient at H2H. That event will be the start of the real pandemic threat for the rest of the world, and it might not be long in coming.

Prepare, because as the man with the sandwich board says, "the end is nigh"!
(OK, maybe not the end of the world, but bird flu is like a runaway train - gaining speed and becoming unstoppable without a crash.)

[splashtc]

I wonder if the tsunami has something to do with it.

[cindi in pa]

Yeah, all the birds flew the coup and wound up in the center of Indonesia.
The WHO, has link on their web site for preparations people should take. Stocking food, water, medications and so on. I'll add my beeswax candles, and Rosary beads, just in case! All kidding aside, I do take this serious, some people won't. Medicine and supplies, the world does not have enough of either. Yes, it could wind up being just a flu outbreak, better prepared than sorry.

[jprime314]

The end is not nigh!

Even if these reports are true, human-to-human H5N1 will have characteristic quite different than the animal version. It could be highly contagious and deadline...or not at all...or anywhere in between.

So stop spreading panic before there's any reason to.

[Kip Watson]

Sorry, but Chicken Little has been crying wolf without a break for far longer than I've been a round, and I'm not young.

I'll give the scare-mongering scientists points for imagination, but pardon me while I stifle a yawn.

Wake me up when the sky has fallen...

[cindi in pa]

So stop spreading panic before there's any reason to.

Posted by: jprime314 | Dec 3, 2005 7:01:25 PM

Spreading panic? When did being informed transmit to panic? I sure as hell would like a chance to protect myself to the best of my ability, before hand. One of the reasons people blog, to keep people informed of issues the MSN choose not to deal with.

Keep up the good work Dan, let the IGNORANT sort it out. Like I said, I would rather be informed.

[sadie]

Dammit.

[Dusty]

According to this report at Recombinomics from yesterday,

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12020502/H5N1_Vietnam_304.html

there are concerns about H2H transmission in four countries and that report doesn't have good news from Vietnam.

[jprime314]

Cindi,

You're not reading the full posts. I was responding to the comment by iFlu.org who wrote "the end is nigh"

Sorry but the end is not nigh. We don't have enough information to make doomsday predictions like that, and to do so on this unconfirmed report is irresponsible. Its why real journalists and analysts laugh at the blogosphere.

This is rumor, not news.

[Protagonist]

The silver lining is that if they hve found a contagious form of the virus, they can start making a viable vaccine against it.

[TM Lutas]

I think there's some merit to the scare-mongering charge. The article notes that the H2H variant seems to have a much lower fatality rate than the 55% that's scared the pants off of everybody. If you didn't hit the link, you wouldn't have noticed that. If the bird flu goes pandemic but it only kicks up the fatality rate a fraction over regular flu, people will have over-prepared and the march of desensitizing the public to health warnings goes on.

[Dr. Littrell]

The Avian flu that caused the 1918 Flu epidemic only killed between 2 or 3% of the people it infected and it still effectively wiped out some 20,000,000 people around the globe in only nine months. So I would not take much solace in the fact H5N1 may be losing some of it's lethality as it gains in it's efficiency to spread between humans as this is the natural course of influenza viruses anyway.

[eb]

It's a lot easier to be concerned by such a report when you live in a country that just announced they've found Avian Flu like Ukraine did yesterday. Since I'm living here, I'm not as inclined to yawn as others.

I'm trying to track the story here and will include a trackback to this post. Thanks.

[sadie]

This is all George Bush's fault.

[cindi in pa]

This is all George Bush's fault.

Posted by: sadie | Dec 4, 2005 2:39:09 AM

No way! This can all be tracked back to Billy boy and unprotected cigar sex with what's her name. Have to agree, the government is to blame. WTF are they good for if they can't stop a few birds.

[sadie]

Like I'd really say that in a serious manner.

[cindi in pa]

I knew you were kidding Sadie. Some out there will be blaming Bush in no time.

[iFlu.org]

My post was the opposite of scaremongering. H2H has been with us for almost a year. It is still limited H2H, not efficient like seasonal flu. When the facts themselves are so chastening, any attempt to over-excite them is likely to prove counter-productive. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't take it seriously, it has been getting worse - like a runaway train - and although the mortality rate has decined to about 33%, it has a long way to go to get to the level of the 1918 pandemic (roughly 2.5%).