China: This Really Isn't Good News

We've learned that even good intelligence operations can be wrong. But if we aren't wrong here - this is a serious concern.

In an interview aboard his plane en route from Washington, Rumsfeld questioned China's motives in underreporting its defense spending. He mentioned no figures, but the Pentagon said last summer that China may be spending $90 billion on defense this year _ three times the announced total.

What's critical is knowing precisely what that money was spent on. There's always bio-chemical weapons, after all. It's the nuclear weapon of the future, assuming you have the antidote and they don't.

Buildings intact, infrastructure intact - a burgeoning population could just wait for moving day.

Comments

[TheAlamo]

Surprise!!!!1
When you sleep with a whore, you're bound to get syphillis.

Wonder when Americans are going to wake up to this suicide program our government has been on the past few administrations (since Nixon sold out the Amercian worker to the Chinese).

You don't trade with your enemy. You don't sell out your labor force to your enemy. And you damned sure don't let your enemies hold your national debt.

But...hey! The Chinese are wonderful people. Just because they crush demonstrations by running over people with tanks....ah, who cares, they were just punk college students anyway....

Lovely bedfellows we have.

[lawbster]

you said it, baby!

[overall]

how much money does america spend on its defence excactly?

(serious question)

[pkt]

"bio-chemical weapons"

Read the Pundita post on the Sichuan disease outbreak. Bunch of crap.

The fact is that China in modern history has been the source of most global contagions, including flu pandemics, because of demographics, hygene, and culture. Since this doesn't play a part in Pundita's analysis suggests that both Pundita and Dan don't have a clue what they are blogging about. In China, more than any other country in the world, farmers, butchers and their families work, live, and eat in close proximity to their livestock.

It is interesting to note that after SARS broke out in China, there were many paranoid numbnuts in the authoritarian country (I'm an American who lives part of the year in China) that believed that SARS was a U.S. bio-engineered attack on China. Dan... you're in good company with them.

[Smokey]

This is really serious. We are in debt to this country who is spending god knows what on Arms, plus, all they are doing over there are breeding boys. I'm not positive, but in China I think you can only have 1 girl. I'm probaly off, on that, but I'm sure someone out there knows for sure

But I think we all know what they plan to do with all the boys, put them into the Army, build up that Army, and make a move.

It'll be like in 2020, we(USA) are still going to be feeling all the dumbass, boneheaded moves that the Bush Adminstration has pulled the last 5 years. Then China is going to strike. Thats why I'll be in Jamiaca or Amsterdam by then, while the US takes up Chinese as thier first language, and all silverware gets replaced by Chop-Sticks.

[ActionReport]

this is from NewsMax Magazine: The congressionally mandated U.S.-China Security Review Commission has indicated that the Chinese military is attempting to hack into computer networks at the U.S. Defense Department as part of its "unrestricted warfare" - confirming earlier reports from NewsMax.

"It is believed that China is attempting to exploit perceived vulnerabilities to launch viruses, crash networks, collect intelligence and spread disinformation," according to the Transnational Threats Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

NewsMax reported in August: "Chinese Web sites are being used to target computer networks in the U.S. Defense Department and other federal agencies ...

"Some analysts in the Pentagon believe the attacks constitute a coordinated effort by the Chinese government to spy on U.S. databases."

Our report also disclosed that the attacks have been code-named "Titan Rain" by American investigators.

The CSIS revelations confirm that the Chinese hacker ring has been dubbed "Titan Rain," and refer to a book written in 1999 by two Chinese colonels, entitled "Unrestricted Warfare," which describes "understanding and employing the principle of asymmetry correctly to allow us always to find and exploit an enemy's soft spots."

According to the CSIS, "Officials believe this signals cyber espionage against the United States."

NewsMax was the first media organization to call attention to the book "Unrestricted Warfare."

In October 2001 - just a month after the 9/11 attacks - NewsMax disclosed that security officials believed the attacks were probably based on ideas presented in "Unrestricted Warfare," which was published by the People's Liberation Army. Additionally, the Chinese press hailed the book and its authors after the Sept. 11 attacks.

The book states that an enemy can do maximum harm to a developed nation by hijacking civilian aircraft and turning them into "flying bombs." It also specifically stated that if Osama bin Lader were to bomb the World Trade Center, it would be a perfect example of the new "unrestricted warfare."

The report from the CSIS suggests that in addition to military networks, Chinese hackers could also target civilian communications systems and economic institutions such as the New York Stock Exchange.

South Korea claims its security institutions have also been attacked by hackers operating in China, the CSIS disclosed, adding: "Cyber attacks against Korean sites are up almost twofold from 2004."

[mc]

Great Dan!
Give'em new ideas
If anyone needs me, I'll be in the basement under the stairs....

[Pundita]

Re pkt's comment above: I have addressed your points in various essays about China's Mystery Illness (and H5N1), so you are reading out of context.

I don't ignore or dispute China's role in spreading highly infectious disease. Under dispute are claims that a mystery illness appearing in Guangdong and Sichuan provinces this year is a strain of Ebola virus and worse, according to one anonymous report -- it's a "doomsday" virus made up in part of Bubonic plague, a strain of Ebola, and a virus (or bacteria) so strange that the doctor who described it said he couldn't name it.

Yale University Online, and others who should have known better, got roped into giving serious consideration to the Ebola virus claims because they didn't do the slug work of analyzing all the published reports about the Ebola claim.

After weeks of analyzing the reports -- an effort joined by translators, physicians, etc., and several readers who enjoy doing research on the Internet -- I was able to call the terrifying claims into serious question.

What's more, I was able to point out what no one in their panic had noticed: because there was absolutely NO medical evidence available to determine the nature of the mystery outbreak, it wasn't even possible to determine whether the outbreak was a disease!

I pointed out that it could have been an illness due to poisoning -- perhaps a poison substance released from an industrial accident, which are widespread in China.

As to whether there was anything about the described symptoms to suggest that possibility -- yes! Plenty! But my point was that without medical evidence in hand, it was silly to speculate -- and equally silly to brand the outbreak an "infectious disease."

The series of essays listed in the Pundita post that Dan linked to tells the story. It's a strong reminder to news consumers (and intelligence analysts) to do your homework -- and to keep your wits about you while taking in terrifying news.

None of this means that the outbreak wasn't a highly infectious lethal disease. It means we don't know what happened, although I think we can safely move "Ebola outbreak" to the bottom of the worry pile.

[Pundita]

Re pkt's remark (posted at 6:58 AM) about SARS and paranoia:

Many more Chinese suspect that the SARS virus is an experiment that jumped a biowar lab in China. Unfortunately, there are aspects of the situation that tend to support the suspicion:

First, even Beijing eventually stopped denying that the first infection had surfaced in a military hospital in China.

Second, the SARS virus seems to be a "cocktail" of older highly infectious diseases. (Unlike the mystery illness that broke out this year, medical facilities outside China have been able to obtain samples of the virus because the outbreak spread outside China.)

Third, Beijing's initial draconian attempts to cover up the outbreak, which put millions of Chinese lives at risk. This was followed by Beijing's elaborate campaign of denial and deception, which put even more millions of lives at risk -- both in China and around the world.

The suspicions were fanned this year because of a sensational speech reportedly made by a former high-ranking officer in China's military. He said in the clearest terms that biowar against the United States (with a vaccine to protect Chinese from the bioweapon) should be pursued because in coming years China will need more room to expand and the North American continent is the logical choice for China's overflow to settle down.

The source for the speech (The Epoch Times) is controversial, but it fits with the information in the book "Unrestricted Warfare," which was published with the blessing of Jiang Zemin and China's military.

In any case, Beijing's draconian attempts to cover up a 'mystery' outbreak this year repeated the pattern of their actions in response to the SARS outbreak.

And in this situation China has refused to share medical samples. This is despite all the warnings they had been given by WHO, and governments around the world, after the SARS outbreak.

Thus, defense agencies (and intelligence analysts such as John Loftus) take the mystery outbreak very seriously, as well they should.

What I did in the series of essays Dan linked to was sort through the complex and confusing reports about the outbreak, in the attempt nail down exactly what was actually known (as versus rumored and suspected).

This cleared away some of the fog surrounding the reports; e.g., speculations about the most alarming claims about the nature of the mystery outbreak. Yet at this time, there is NO WAY to rule out that the mystery illness was created in a biowar lab.

Just as there is no way to rule out that the illness is caused by a 'natural' mutation of a virus (or virus/bacteria combination).

In other words, we're working blindfolded because no medical samples are available. However, militaries that use spy satellites are not entirely blindfolded.

It's easy to put two and two together from my notes on Loftus' report (which form my first post on the topic). One can safely assume that the US military (and/or the CIA) was concerned about images picked up by the satellites.

So, whatever the true nature of the outbreak, something very alarming had been going on in Sichuan -- something Beijing tried to cover up.

Something which seemingly had a connection to an outbreak that China's health ministry eventually claimed was strep suis bacteria.

That diagnosis that flew in the face of logic on several levels, and contradicted many anecdotal reports about the symptoms of the illness.

So unfortunately, it's not paranoia that keeps the US military, China's populace, and any informed observer deeply worried about China's biowar program.

[pkt]

So unfortunately, it's not paranoia that keeps the US military, China's populace, and any informed observer deeply worried about China's biowar program.

Posted by: Pundita | Oct 18, 2005 5:40:56 PM

This is frankly rubbish. You cannot speak for the Chinese people and whether their worried about China's biowar policies. The average joe is more worried about making some money and ignorant of China's military capabilities.

You should also be much more concerned about a natural outbreak of an influenza or other contagions from China rather than China's biowarfare program. China is literally a gigantic sewer of infectious diseases ready to break out. You name it.. they got it. Some of these might eventually cripple China's economic progress. For example, Beijing admits to 120 million chronic carriers of hepatitis B. Pretty scary.

I lived through the SARS outbreak. I was in Hong Kong where the frontline battle against SARS occurred. SARS is not a biowarfare creation. It is result of poor social conditions, high population density, poor hygene and close proximity to animals. SARS is a coronavirus and was isolated by both the CDC, the Germans, and Hong Kong doctors. It has been documented to have jumped from civet cats to humans but probably originated in bats. SARS antibodies were even found in animal traders in Guangdong. The first case is thought to have been a farmer in Foshan county but it would be difficult to determine because SARS symptoms are similar to other cases of atypical pneumonia. I think it is also important to realize that SARS is not as powerful as potent strain of Influenza, which can reproduce faster, has asymptomatic transmission capabilities, and spread much faster.

Beijing attempts at covering up disease outbreaks, while they do exacerbate the situation, is not evidence of a biowarfare exercise gone wrong. It is the habit of an authoritarian regime fixated and paranoid about national security. This is the way they react to anything that threatens state security... whether it is some kooky cult, dissidents, terrorists, "splitists" or disease outbreaks. This paranoia is institutionalized from the local governments on up. The first reaction to the outbreak in Guangdong in Nov 2002 was for the provincial government to not only hide the outbreak from the outside world but also from the Beijing leadership.

Something similar happened in Sichuan because there are local interests who are more concerned about wealth rather than public health. The outbreak among pig farmers, handlers and butchers in Sichuan is also a result of the same factors as SARS with the additional factor of antibiotic abuse by the pig farmers contributing to a more virulent strain of streptococcus suis, which is very common among pigs globally. Experts convened by the WHO determined that the etiology was consistent with streptococcus suis. Hong Kong doctors have confirmed that it is indeed streptococcus suis.

In reality, Pundita, despite claims to the contrary, throwing these outbreak incidents into some argument that infers that they are all part a result of a biowarfare policy is hardly an informed argument and does seem like paranoia. It also suggests you lack knowledge of China. Have you ever been to a Chinese wet market in Guangdong province? Have you ever been to Sichuan province?

I am not saying China is not a threat. It is certainly economic and poltical competitor to the U.S. globally. Just there are other areas in China's military development that are much greater threat to the U.S. (e.g. space warfare) than bio warfare.

[pkt]

Pundita said "He said in the clearest terms that biowar against the United States (with a vaccine to protect Chinese from the bioweapon) should be pursued because in coming years China will need more room to expand and the North American continent is the logical choice for China's overflow to settle down."

Yes... and we have our own McCarthyite bombthrowers on our side of the Pacific.

"The source for the speech (The Epoch Times) is controversial, but it fits with the information in the book "Unrestricted Warfare," which was published with the blessing of Jiang Zemin and China's military."

Yes... and we have had PNAC and Joint Vision transformation plan for our military. We determined to maintain our primacy. Moreover, the book "Unrestricted Warfare" is abstract and doesn't offer substantive recommendations for PLA strategy or reform. The two senior colonels who wrote the book are out of the picture... and Jiang Zemin is pretty close to being out of the picture. That is not to say that Hu Jintao is a dove.
China will continue to be competitive with the U.S. politically and economically. They will also do everything they can to catch up to U.S. in terms of military and technological capabilities because they see the U.S. as a hegemon.

[Pundita]

You are very determined that there should be no consideration whatsoever of the possibility that the mystery illness arises from a biowar experiment. Data analysis requires consideration of all possibilities.

With regard to your comment about SARS, yes it's been identified as a coronavirus, and the world has heard it from end to end about civet cats. Just as the world heard it from Beijing that the mystery illness is strep suis, which even WHO finds hard to swallow. And neither set of explanations rule out a bioweapon.

With regard to your comment that I don't speak for China's people, I was quoting reliable intelligence reports on the situation in China during the SARS outbreak. From those reports, many Chinese were indeed suspicious that SARS was a bioweapon -- and not, as you tried to suggest earlier, one created by the US but by their own government.

I repeat what I wrote earlier: they were helped along in the suspicion by their government's attempts to cover up the outbreak.

Of course that does not mean SARS originated as a bioweapon. Yet so far I've come across no evidence that would allow me to rule out the possibility.

Regarding your comment "The average joe is more worried about making some money and ignorant of China's military capabilities." -- that would apply to people in other countries as well.

But it's been my experience that when average Joes in America find their lives threatened by government policies, they don't need a map of the Pentagon or knowledge of weapons capability to entertain dark suspicions.

So frankly, I find your remark insulting to the intelligence of the Chinese people and insensitive of your position as an American in China. You are an outsider in a society where speaking too freely to a foreigner, particularly an American, can be dangerous.

From all your comments, you are intent on explaining your point of view about China and tamping down any mention of China's biowarfare program.

If you read my earlier comments and the essays listed in the "China Puzzle" post, you'll see that I am intent on discovering whether there is veracity to news reports and anecdotal accounts.

[pkt]

Posted by: Pundita | Oct 19, 2005 2:10:47 AM

In response to your claim that "many" Chinese were suspicious that this was a bioweapon created by their own government, I know that this number would be small compared to the amount of Chinese people that believed rightly or wrongly that the U.S. was behind SARS. I base this on my own first hand experience and the experience of those that I trust. Your quoting of so called "reliable intelligence reports" is dubious.

Your claim that I insulted the intelligence and that I insensitive to my position as a American in China is flawed and demonstrates your ignorance of China. First of all, I did not say the Chinese people are unintelligent. I indicated that they are kept in ignorance of their country's military capabilities. I also implied that they are primarily concerned with making wealth ..more so than other countries.. particularly over other concerns such as democracy or equality or freedom of speech. This not an indictment of their morals but a fact. If you recall, Deng Xiaoping said that "To Get Rich is Glorious!" This is part of Chinese culture. This is coupled by the fact that there is rising wealth in China. China's masses see how capitalism has made many go from rags to riches and they want their piece of the pie too.

Moreover, based on intelligence reports and press reports, the Chinese population is overwhelming more patriotic than many Western countries populations - particularly the U.S. population. Distrust of foreign influence has consistent throughtout Chinese history and the Chinese people are thoroughly educated - thanks to a great deal of propaganda - about the humilation that their country has suffered from foreign powers over hundreds of years. This drives them to be extremely nationalistic. China's nationalism can at times be so intense... the government loses control of it (e.g. after Embassy bombing in Belgrad and this year's anti-Japanese protests). I am therefore confident that concerns among China's population that SARS was a government generated bioagent were limited compared to concerns that it was a foreign introduced agent or a natural agent. The Chinese are after all used to disease outbreaks.

[Pundita]

To Pkt:
I see you've abandoned your original statement, which was insulting to Chinese. Yes I would agree that it is more the government keeping the people in the dark rather than what you originally implied, which is that there is something special about the Chinese brain -- something that prevents the "average joe" Chinese from being concerned about his military's doings when he learns of a massive cover-up and government inaction that directly threatens his life and that of his family's.

Re your remark that "Unrestricted Warfare" is abstract -- it is specific enough to convey that it's Strangelovian, which meshes with the theme of biowar; i.e., if one is looking for hints that the PLA was (at the time of the book's writing) deeply committed to a biowar weapon, it can be found by reading between the lines in several statements in the book. That was my only reason for mentioning it.

The rest of your comments in that regard are old news to Pundita readers. Indeed, if you were a regular visitor to my blog you would know that whatever valid points you've inserted into this discussion have been covered in one or more my earlier blogs on China, which are several. That to include your observations about Chinese nationalism.

However, the general rule about Chinese nationalism (and xenophobia among China's rural population) is irrelevant to Chinese concerns about their health.

I note that running through your comments is the theme that your viewpoint is objective. Again and again you strive to convey that because you're an American who regularly goes back and forth between China and the US, and who lives part of the year in China, you have special access to the Chinese population that makes your opinion valid.

What you have, according to your own description of yourself, is special access to the Enclave mentality. At the least you would be risking your visa, and whatever business that keeps you returning to China, if you stepped outside the literal or figurative enclave in China.

But that all this takes us far from the points made in my essays about China's mystery illness, which from your comments was never your intention to address. You were, and still are, intent on discrediting any mention of China's biowarfare program, even if this meant dismissing the author of this blog as a paranoiac for bringing up the subject. Even if this meant grossly distorting my words on the subject.

So I will end my part in this discussion by observing that anyone who actually read what I'd written would know that I called for great caution in making assumptions about the origin of the mystery illness. That would include caution about assuming a biowar explanation.

Because I do not have a comment section on my blog, I thank Dan for allowing me as a guest on his so I could defend my writing. But I would be wearing out my welcome if I continued the thread beyond this point because I've stated my defense clearly enough.

[pkt]

I have not changed my earlier points at all. I only elaborated on them. You characterization of my comments being an insult is erroneous...and it is obvious that your attempting to put "words in my mouth." I stand by my comment that the average joe in China "is more worried about making some money" and is "ignorant of China's military capabilities." I qualified this by saying that they are ignorant, in part, of their country's military programs because of the level of secrecy in China's government. Another reason for ignorance is that the masses do not have access to education compared to many developed countries.

Pundita, your and many on the right's fixation with the outdated "Unrestricted Warfare" blinds you to new developments in China's goal of striving to match U.S. capabilities. You also ignore works subsequent to Unrestricted Warfare by enlightened and prominent luminaries in China's military establishment - such as General Liu Yazhou (a princeling and someone who was very much in the Jiang camp). Today, much of the PLA military literature on transformation and the revolution in military affairs actually emulates U.S. military developments. They actually are using Joint Vision 2020 as a model. They are expanding their military budget but consolidating their troop levels.

I've been living and working in China for the better part of 25 years. The enclave mentality that you describe here and on your own blog is too simplistic to apply to complex sociopolitical situation, which includes foreign business, and is in continuos flux as China changes and develops. Moreover, the business I'm in doesn't require me to deal or engage in transactions with Chinese officials, technocrats, or the business elite. In fact, it is more on the investigative and observational side. I am not a apologist or defender of the Beijing regime. I am more on the detracting side. I'm am particularly exposed to the growing Chinese middle class in the metropolitan areas of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, but I also make every attempt to monitor developments or events (e.g. village level democracy or recent events like in Taishi) among the under classes - the peasants and the migrant labor. Among China's masses, life is pretty cheap and death by murder, execution, disease, industrial accidents, or natural disasters like Typhoons is more common to people than what we experience in the West. These people have a lot more to concern them then their government's bioweapons program. They are much more likely to riot over issues such as working conditions, corruption (as in Taishi), anti-Japanese sentitment, or pollution (as in Dongyang city in Zhejiang province). In fact, during SARS, there was rioting but it wasn't over bioweapons... it was over medical treatment. The Nationalism - and anti-Americanism - among all social groups is of course very relevant because it is alarmingly strong even among the "Have Nots."

I am not trying to discredit attempts at examining China's biowarfare program except for attempts to without credible evidence tie in outbreaks like Bird Flu, SARS, and strep suis. I personally feel this is paranoia on the level of Salem Witch Trials. It is particularly ridiculous that some American conservatives believe that China would seek to colonize the U.S. (need I point out that China's birth rate is the lowest in the world). I also think there are more significant areas and technologies where China will challenge or become a threat to the U.S. (e.g. space warfare, info warfare, naval and submarine warfare, and strategic missiles). Moreover, they are engaging in a stealth policy of political and economic containment of the U.S.

Although my views have been often described to be at that right end of the political spectrum, I wince at the slanted view of China and the PLA that comes out of rightwing punditry that reads and quotes from biased rags like the Epoch Times or NewsMax. This is why I have problems with postings by Dan, yourself, and others in the conservative blogsphere that stoke the fires of paranoia instead of objectively analysizing China's developments in a calm and cool way.