Bird Flu On The Move

So far it has moved from Southeast Asia to Russia. Now it appears it may be detected in Romania. British officials are predicting that with migratory bird patterns being what they are, it will arrive in Britain in the not too distant future. India is also very concerned.

Flu experts have never seen a flu so deadly. It can kill a bird within hours. The articles and information below explain how and why it could mutate and the ultimate threat it could cause - the death of millions. As I understand it, the drug Tamiflu is increasingly ineffective and an effective vaccine couldn't be developed until it has crossed over into human beings.

Because an eventual human killer could evolve from a recombinant form, from recombining into a new strain within an individual with an additional form of flu at the same time, fighting the usual flu this year could be important as regards prevention.

Unfortunately, the avian form of the virus is spreading in areas which likely don't have much in the way of resources to combat any type of flu - let alone such a killer.

Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease.

This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.

The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.

Three domestic ducks have died of bird flu in eastern Romania, but authorities said Friday they had not confirmed whether the birds were infected by the H5N1 strain that experts are tracking for fear it could mutate and spawn a human flu pandemic.

Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.

Nat. Geo. - In Southeast Asia a virus that kills chickens is now also killing people. The race is on to keep the bird flu from ravaging the world.

The deadly bird flu virus, which has killed millions of birds and dozens of people in East and South-East Asia, recently reached Russia and parts of Central Asia. Governments in Europe are discussing strategies to prepare for the virus, in case migratory birds carry it there from Asia.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Delegates from 80 nations and international agencies began meeting on Thursday to formulate the best way to fight the growing outbreak of avian influenza before it can cause a human pandemic that could kill millions.

At the same time, President George W. Bush met with top health and security advisers about ways the United States can deal with a influenza pandemic and scheduled a meeting with top vaccine manufacturers for Friday, and members of Congress introduced legislation that would help develop better flu vaccines and help spot outbreaks at the earliest moment.

Some folks are saying whatever you do, don't take two aspirins or you might not live to call anyone in the morning. But that's just a theory, at best.

Comments

[Muirnin]

Ya know, Dan, as callous as this may seem...

We are all dying......just a little bit at a time.

From the moment we are born, we begin to die.

If the bird flu doesn't kill us, something else surely will.

[Pundita]

Tamiflu is not a vaccine; it's a class of anti-viral drug called "amantadine." If taken within hours of onset of the infection, it can wipe out the virus. It still is effective but there is alarming indication that the drug has been used so much to treat 'ordinary' flu strains that it's now losing its effectiveness -- at just the time the killer H5N1 virus is making inroads. A recent report (see excerpt below from Reuters) is that Tamiflu is losing effectiveness against a strain of H5N1 that's appeared in Vietnam.

For more on this situation, see article in Lancet at
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/
lancet/article/PIIS0140673605673382/abstract

Also, visit promed@promedmail.org
for medical discussion board about Avian Flu/antivirals. A recent comment from Pro-Med:

"Resistance to amantadine and rimantadine has been recorded previously, but the high frequency of resistant virus where these drugs have been used extensively over a considerable period suggests that their future usefulness will be limited. [...]"

"HONG KONG (Reuters - 10-1) -- A strain [isolate?] of the H5N1 avian influenza virus ...is showing resistance to Tamiflu, the antiviral drug that countries around the world are now stockpiling to fend off the looming threat. Experts in Hong Kong said [Sep 30] that the human H5N1 strain which surfaced in northern Viet Nam this year had proved to be resistant to Tamiflu, a powerful antiviral drug.

They urged drug manufacturers to make more effective versions of Relenza, another antiviral that is also known to be effective in battling... H5N1. Relenza is inhaled [whereas Tamiflu is taken orally]. [...]

Switzerland's Roche Holdings AG makes Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, and GalaxoSmithKline makes Relenza, or zanamivir.

"Manufacturers should think about producing an injectable form of Relenza because resistance to Tamiflu has been seen in Japan and Viet Nam. Also with injections, high doses can be given where necessary and onset time is a lot faster," [Hong Kong doctor] Chui said.

Drugs that are administered intravenously can be better absorbed in patients who have stomach and acidity problems, another expert said. [...]"

[Pundita]

Regarding the article about danger of using aspirin to treat fever from a viral infection:

One of the many things I questioned about the article is the author’s contention that modern doctors don’t understand the mechanism of fever and flu virus. It seems to me that an extended period carrying a very high temperature can be a killer for many people, which is probably the modern medical rationale for applying anti-fever measures.

However, the part that worried me is the author's general observation that aspirin and any anti-fever 'cold' medication masks the onset of a viral infection, which seems to be signaled by a fever. This observation might have very serious implications with regard to trying to nip a really bad epidemic/pandemic in the bud.

If the author’s observation holds true, maybe people should be educated not to routinely self-medicate with aspirin-based products, particularly during flu season, and particularly if they’re using the product simply as an anti-inflammatory medication.

Beyond the author’s 'aspirin hypothesis' about the 1918 pandemic (which strikes me as very hard to prove even if one accepts his basic idea) there is the simple observation that fever is a powerful immune system weapon against viruses. We overlook that, in this era when we self-medicate and "keep going" rather than allow ourselves to be bedridden for a day or two.

[Pundita]

The problem with a mega-pandemic in this era is not only mass death on a mind-boggling scale, it's also how mass death within a short period of time would affect societies.

The chaos we saw in New Orleans after Katrina is nothing, next to what would happen if a killer virus wipes out/sickens large numbers of workers who are considered critical employees; e.g., police, firemen, pilots, and so on.

We just don't even want to think about it -- but with H5N1 breathing down our neck, we have to think about it. That's President Bush's point. That virus is not clowning around. It's super smart and super tough.

[usmcmom]

I was raised with the whole "feed a fever, starve a cold", which I thought was based on the idea that a little bit of fever was good b/c it killed the germs/virus/bacteria that was making you sick. We were always given hot toddies(sp) when we had a cold, supposedely to help raise our body temps and to kill the "buggies" as my mom would call them... Anyways, that article from Pundita is very interesting, and Dan your article scares the heck out of me...

[GrannyToad]

The 1918 flu was a bird flu, I've heard. Oddly it took young & healthy adults, not children, elderly. Don't quite understand that. Under the plan we're using today as to who gets flu vaccine first, the 1918 flu would not have been slowed down because the wrong people would be vaccinated. Ain't that weird.

[Isabell]

The 1918 flu was a bird flu, I've heard. Oddly it took young & healthy adults, not children, elderly. Don't quite understand that. Under the plan we're using today as to who gets flu vaccine first, the 1918 flu would not have been slowed down because the wrong people would be vaccinated. Ain't that weird.

Posted by: GrannyToad | Oct 8, 2005 3:52:30 AM

I heard the same things. I think that we just need to be careful and use our technology and resources to keep it under control if it comes near us

[farmgirl]

The "reported" reason the 1918 flu killed the young in such numbers was that young men were housed in close quarters in military camps and even in homes..it was not unusual for them to sleep (siblings) 4 to 6 in a room.

A note: I raise chickens..a LOT of chickens..and I have been on line and with the local farm bureau asking what can I do to protect my flock and my community? No answers..but they certainly have not advocated that I destroy my birds..

And what if they did? There are three Hawks that live in tall pines just yards from here..and they of course are endangered..Can't kill them no matter that they could spread virus easier then my whole flock..

So what I am doing..medicating the flock and bringing them down on laying pellet and increasing the scratch..trying to get them as healthy as possible..

Same with humans..they need to rack up on vitamins and immune system stuff and eat right, go into the season rested and healthy as possible.

[paul]

"an effective vaccine couldn't be developed until it has crossed over into human beings"

Appears there is an effective vaccine NOW.
http://www.al.com/search/index.ssf?/base/news/1128072292122370.xml?birminghamnews?nstate&coll=2

Friday, September 30, 2005
MARY ORNDORFF
News Washington correspondent
WASHINGTON - A Birmingham biomedical firm has a drug that could treat avian flu in humans, but it needs $10 million worth of work and the
federal government so far is not offering to pick up the tab.

peramivir

Peramivir was conceived as a pill for treating people with run-of-the-mill flu but was scrapped because it was ineffective. It is being repackaged as a higher-dose shot or intravenous treatment for people already sick and probably hospitalized with avian flu.

Ineffective in pill but is effective in IV.

Problem Is no Fed monies.

http://www.shareholder.com/biocryst/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=882796&FID=1206774-05-1173&SID=05-00
SEC filing claims does work on avian.

International studies claim effectiveness in patients already infected.

http://www.upmc-cbn.org/dmz/index.html?whereto=%2F
Oseltamivir-resistant viruses were detected in several patients who had been
treated with oseltamivir, but these viruses remained sensitive to zanamivir
and partially sensitive to the investigational agent peramivir in vitro

And the same from all major reserach world wide.
http://www.mongabay.com/drugs/drugs/Zanamivir.html

Seems an answer is already available.

Question is which pharmaceutical pac and which senator or congressman gets the money to "discover whats already here".

Just strikes me as an enquirer reaction overlooking facts in evidence.

[Erin]

The reason that the 1918 flu was so devastating is stated in National Geographic: the avian flu mixed with pigs, it's believed, causing a flu that young adults, the healthiest ones usually, didn't have immune defenses against. If you haven't read the article, you should. Also, when it first struck people, it wasn't so devastating. However, the second wave of the flu in 1918 was when it started killing. I hope we don't have to face anything like it, but experts believe that it's only a matter of time... At least Bush is trying to prepare the US for it, rather than just leaving it to chance.

[brenda]

The 1918 epidemic most certainly DID kill the young and the elderly....

At least it did in my husbands family. His grandparents lost all 4 of their first set of children to it. My husband is the product of new births after the flu epidemic.

Either my husbands family was unique, or it most certainly did take its toll on the very young - those with weak immune systems.

Young children, aids patients, the elderly have something in common: a weak immune system. Those with one will have the highest risk of being unable to fight the virus.

Read the stories....each one lists CHILDREN.....

Using the above listed figures (1.9 million) and assuming the USA has 300 million legal residents (I don't know how many illegals are here)....we stand to lose 0.006% of the population...otherwise 6 out of every 1000 people.

I am not intending to minimize the situation - just put in into perspective. Mass hysteria leading to widespread panic would certainly cause far more deaths than 6 out of every 1000 people.

Cleanliness, maintaining good health, avoiding diseases that compromise the immune system (such as aids) will do far more to minimize the situation/risk than making ourselves self destruct as a society through mass hysteria.

[Jones]

Pretty nice site, wants to see much more on it!t