Latest Rita Models Not Good For New Orleans

h/t to Mike - The hurricane models are still shifting somewhat but one emerging trend could spell more bad news for New Orleans. Rita is slowing down and has shifted slightly - while the storm is still headed for Texas, it's now expected to hover in the area north of the coast, possibly even in central-Louisiana. Calcasieu Parish south of I-10 is under mandatory evacuation.

The eastward shift of the high is forecast by all global models...resulting in track guidance consistently turning the hurricane toward the northwest and north toward the Upper-Texas or the western Louisiana coasts. After landfall...steering currents are expected to weaken and the cyclone could meander for a couple of days in the vicinity of northeastern Texas...producing heavy rains.

Either way, somewhere up from the coast would get a genuinely significant amount of rainfall - and it isn't hard to predict through where it will drain if it hovers somewhere to the east - most likely the Mississippi River down past New Orleans.

Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.

A Weather Underground Blog

Satelite views here and here for infrared - hit animate.

Comments

[Bigfish]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml
It doesn't look good for New Orleans. Scattered thunderstorms appear to be breaking out in southern Louisiana and the rain bands are getting ever so close. IMO, Rita took what appeared to be a left turn but now looks as though to have been a jog as opposed to a turn and she's back on the NW course.
This storm may be difficult to track even after it makes landfall.
Bigfish