Come On Folks

There is enough information, or lack thereof, to keep interest going in the Natalee Holloway disappearance. It serves no purpose to get people all worked up with untrue, or totally confused or confusing information.

After being sent some images of a supposed piece of fabric which might be Natalee Holloway's shirt - I did a post on it, as it looked incredibly plausible.

However, I then went back and found the video myself. I looked at it several times - full screen, frontwards and backwards. I took several screen captures. At this point, it is ridiculous to be suggesting that this is a piece of fabric relevant to the case.

When viewed without sun effects it is monolithic in color and not stripped. Also, the individual carrying the cloth uses it to steady himself as he climbs over boulders and rocks. DO you really believe someone, an America from all appearance, so don't EVEN go there, would do such a thing if he had a significant find?

Sorry, I am not buying that. As he was THERE and had it in HIS hands, I can only conclude it was an insignificant piece of fabric he was using as a hand towel, or pad. No other explanation makes sense. I stayed up until 5 AM last night to look into this and I am done discussing it in email.

What troubles me most is that Fox went to some effort to keep the cloth centered in frame through a great deal of that tape. All you need do is watch it to confirm that. They even focus in on it near the end.

I am more interested in truth than traffic and I am not going to hype something which, at this point, appears to be absurd.

Comments

[ExGman]

Thanks for your candor Dan. As posted elsewhere, the resolution/final analysis of what went done here will surprise many.

[ExGman]

But I doubt it will surprise you Dan. Me suspects you know much more than you are telling here, and I dont blame you. Do you agree that the resolution of what happened will be somewhat of a surprise?

[Robert]

Fox News is doing a two hour run on the Holloway case tonight. I have not decided if I will view it as I am getting sick of Fox News. They have all the facts yet the police have released nothing. Fox seems bent on lynching Joran on nothing but guess. Lets give him a chance at justice.

[Concerned]

Dan~
I respect your professionalism and ability to retract. It takes time to sift through so much information. As committeed as I feel to this mystery, I am unable to give it the attention I would like. I am here because you do!
Thanks~

[Dan]

I tried to e mail you Gman - not that I blame you for the false email address. I would use one to if I didn't need to communicate with several people.

Surprising for its lack of surprises in some ways, perhaps. But, yes ... it will be different than people suspect, I assume. It may also start breaking very quickly this week, possibly even starting tonight. But there is always an air of mystery around this case few, and certainly not I can penetrate ... yet.

[musicgirlms]

Dan,

Any way you could elaborate a bit more on 'it will be different than people suspect, I assume.'

The suspense is driving me, and I am sure many others, crazy!!!

Thanks!
;-)

[Jessie]

My intitial conclusion was that this stuff could not be fabric from the top of NH. Problem was that I was looking at a previous vidio clip (aired in recent days) of a guy in the same area carrying what clearly was not fabric but was the correct color. I have gone to fox and run the correct clip and I am not so sure that what the guy has in his hand could not be fabric from the lower section of the top of NH. Now if the guy had any idea of what he might have in his hand or not is a different mattter. I would guess that the top NH had on was consturcted of synthetic fibers. And what the guy has in his hand appears to be frayed fabric of the correct color constructed from synthetic fibers. But of course, the LE does not have anything to compare that item in the guy's hand to.

[FloridaPatty]

Dan that fabric seen coming up wet off doesn't look like the green piece I saw, which did look like a rag. You make a valid point because it would have been bagged and marked.

I have a lingering question in my head. 125 students, parent chaperones, large hotels to the left and right, it's midnight in a tropical paradise whose residents openly brag in forums like this one on all the partying "thousands each month" so where are all the witnesses?

Anyone think about questioning cab drivers? I went to three Caribbean islands in October and combined the hoards of cabs could have filled a parking lot that looks like Wal-Mart on a Saturday.

Repeat Post:
Greta on The View tomorrow, July 25 talking about
the case.

[clintcarter]

Dan I sent last week's email with corrected address.

AND I do expect to be surprised. Myself and everyone else out of the loop remind me of the blind men and the elephant. If this did begin with an accident or if someone other than Joran was the initial evil-doer thet "no body, no crime" comment seems stupid beyond belief.
But by the translations i've read here maybe he was actually saying "no body commit no crime".

[NevadaMom]

Dan,

My concerns now are what if any, are the ramificiations if NH met her end through a drug lord/gang from Aruba. I am not sure as to what type of immediate repercussions there are for Aruba/from Aruba/ for the Netherlands/from the Netherlands internationally etc. I understand that on the island and in Holland some amount of drugs are legal. Where does this stop and could it effect Hollands' relationship with international drug traffficing laws etc? Can any one clarify how this works. It would be ironic if NH's death/disapperance is resolved because of other laws/concerns. (ie Al Capone and the tax laws)

Can anyone shed some light on this?

[Concerned]

I honestly can't imagine --what i haven't imagined! Ive tried to think outside the box here.

[clintcarter]

Florida Patty it seems that we would not necessarily know about witnesses. Is that correct? Your absolutely right that people would be out and about at all hours. That whole bury the body on the beach part sounds outrageous. What, just start digging a hole? In SAND near hotels? And then dig her up again?

[hmmmm]

Dan,

I find your current post to be hypocritical, since you chose to run with the fabric story from a message board source on another blog. So in essence you will go with anything to be controversial or first to garner "traffic" yet are choosing to take some moral high ground?

Maybe Natalee is in your basement wearing the green shirt and you could sell swatches of it on ebay.

[Concerned]

Venezuala as a possibility would not be a surprise but MB involvement in the disappearance or Natalee disappearing on her own would shock me!

[FloridaPatty]

Tito reporting that the next two weeks will "make or break" the case. According to his sources:

Over 200 items but 3 pieces of evidence critical to the case and will determine " a matter of days" direction of the case.

Lawyers for the Kalpoes and Van Der Sloot filed a petition against the prosecuting office objecting to the decision to allow FBI access. All lawyers are fighting the decision. Three more Dutch investigators joining the case because the prosecuting office requested the additional manpower for a new set of eyes on the case. After they are sworn in they will go to the main station (center where the interrogations take place) where they will again interrogating the Kalpoe brothers and Joran.(Tito reports this) His English was slightly difficult to understand but as far as I could understand, this is what he reported.

Dave HOlloway: I'm thrilled. Hopefully will get a new set of eyes on it and see things that may have been missed.

[Dan]

No, hmmm - I ran the story that it "might" be accurate - researched, then retracted and eventually pulled one post and updated the other at the top sometime around 6 AM this morning - idiot.

[k.jeanne]

The thing I notice is that in the first pictures of the man that holds the fabric is that he DOES not have it, then as he proceeds through the rocks, he does have it in his hands. That seems to indicate he did pick it up as he walked. I have trouble believing it belonged to Natalee's top because it is all the turquoise blue/green, and her top is just banded/bordered in that color. Seems it would be difficult to get a scrap that was all the one color...or maybe not...I don't know....????

[FloridaPatty]

(banging my head on the table in front of me)

What POSSIBLE motive could Dan have for taking his position regarding the cloth other than the clear, well stated, obvious reasons he gave?

Hmmmmmmm...in his basement? Under the circumstances a poor analogy.

[globetrotter]

Guys and Dolls: (sorry for the Gangsta reference!)

Just wanted to preface this by saying that I have to say what’s in my heart tonight. I hope that you don’t mind. And if you do… please just scroll down to the next person and ignore me…

I agree that Joran being the last to be seen with Natalee has certainly put him on the hot seat. I also believe that he has vital clues to what happened to Natalee that night.

But in my heart of hearts, I do not believe that Joran killed Natalee. If she was a victim of a terrible accident under his hand, I do think that he would have admitted that by now. But of course I could be terribly wrong…

In truth, this case has too many convolutions to indicate a simple ending.

I simply cannot believe that these 3kids/young men would not have broken down under pressure by now had they truly been personally responsible for Natalee's demise.

In truth, there is so much more here...

The problem is that it is so sophisticated a crime, that the truth may never be known.

Let's face it folks. Joran was a little out of control for a kid his age. But how many 17-year -old American kids are out of control that you know?

Please, spare me the details. My husband and I worked with teenage kids, both boys and girls, for many years. The truth is that adolescents are out of control a great deal of the time as a result of hormones and the misbalance of equilibrium between adult and childhood.

In my view, this kid was simply not capable of a perfect murder, and his dad, the failed judge-in-training, seems more pitiable to me than noteworthy as the cover-up perp of a perfect crime.

For those of us not inclined to tune in to the REAL World, (sorry Dan, no pun intended), it seems hard for many to believe in theories of drug cartels, money laundering, sex trade/prostitution rings, Mafioso related revenge theories, and etc.etc, etc.

But this stuff does exist in our sad world, my friends. I can certainly provide the links to prove it to you, but you have seen many of them on Dan’s site for yourselves.

I am truly of the belief that there is an element of corruption in Aruba that has contributed to the smoke and mirrors in this case, and which has brought us to where we are right now. I believe that a deadly confluence of Aruban corruption, drug cartels, and Aruban fears of tourism respite have brought this deadly mix to the seething boil that we have right now.

Arubans have tried to bring it to a simmer, but the caldron continues to run over because we feel this child’s spirit crying out to us.

She WAS a good kid! A great kid, actually, and I hope the use of the past tense is a mistake!

Natalee, like many other teens with romantic ideals, was hoping for an international, vacation romance. But it turned deadly as a result of her inexperience, Joran’s inexperience, and an unsavory element on that island that is NOT IN THE MAJORITY.

Trust me Arubans, I realize how sick American society is. All you have to do is turn on the nightly news and learn about the latest pedophile gone free who has raped, and killed some tiny American kid. This on what is becoming an alarmingly regular basis!

We are not faulting Arubans here. But we are concerned if there are Arubans that have knowledge of criminal activity on their island and are turning a blind eye as a result of the financial repercussions.

Trust me, I understand how easy it is to do that!

But I am truly hoping that the Dutch gov't has realized that it needed to get rid of the obstacles (we know who they were) and are trying to move forward in a positive note, to bring an end to what has certainly become an international incident.

I am not confident that the truth will actually be ever told. But please keep in mind that there are many victims in this case.

I feel that Natalee is/was a truly lovely young woman, vibrant and full of life. She actually reminds me in many ways of myself at her age, sexually inexperienced, a kid who loved to dance, very smart and pretty and rather protected from the harsh realities of the real world as a result of her environment.

She had fun on her trip; she partied (Yes she did! God loves her!) And it was her inexperience in these areas that perhaps brought her into harm's way.

She is to be remembered (if not alive), as a beautiful, vibrant kid that believed in the good in people, and not the bad.

I do believe that we must try not to judge anyone without being given evidence. The fact that Joran told tons of lies is consistent with what teens do when they are under duress and when they know they have f___ked up.

Joran knows a lot about what happened to Natalee. I have no doubts about that. But before we hang the wrong guy and let THE GUILTY GO FREE, let's try to be objective.

This kid could not have committed this crime himself.

There is a great deal more to this then meets the eye.

Let's please pray for everyone in this horrible tragedy, as Jesus would have done.

If you are not a Christian, I hope I did not offend you.

Thanks for your time, everyone.

[clintcarter]

Globetrotter; cool.

[Shari]

Dan,
I brought up the issue of the cloth - not to cause trouble, and increase traffic here, but because that particular video frame certainly looked striped on my both of my home computers. I appreciate the time and effort you took examining it. I apologize if it caused any animosity here, I just felt it deserved a closer look. I'll go back to reading silently as I don't want to stir up any more trouble.

[Jessie]

I just think it is required for one the have the fabric in their own hands to make a final judgement on it. The picture quality and the difference in condition of the fabric is such that a photo comparison cannot be made with the same degree of certainty as was done with the photo from C&C. I don't see the darker color green in the clip either, it seems to be all the lighter color of green. So, I would not bet the farm on way or the other based on the video clip.
I would remain open the the possibility. Especially if the duct tape/hair thing turns out related to the case, the odds would go up that the fabric being related to the case.

[FloridaPatty]

GLOBETROTTER, BEAUTIFUL POST.

*I DO WATCH REAL WORLD* AND I DO SO BECAUSE I'M A MOM TO A 19 AND 21 YEAR OLD. (WHEN IN ROME)

>>PERHAPS SO:I am truly of the belief that there is an element of corruption in Aruba that has contributed to the smoke and mirrors in this case, and which has brought us to where we are right now. I believe that a deadly confluence of Aruban corruption, drug cartels, and Aruban fears of tourism respite have brought this deadly mix to the seething boil that we have right now.

[Wouldntyaliketoknow]

Dan, if you took Still Shots of the video yourself, why not post those to prove it is NOT Nat's top, since you already posted some that you also believed were to be. If you're going to do the infamous flip-flopping of opinion, back both sides up. Otherwise, stick with one and stay. I saw the pictures myself, I'd bet money on it that it is Nat's top.

[tuesday_pm]

Dan,
I admit to having a sort of sick fascination with this case and it's drama, and it's pain. I am not sure I am not entertained by it, the possibility of which I am not proud. I hope Natalee comes home safe, and soon.

I applaud the generous and principaled spirit with which you met this whole unthinkible thing.
Thank you for trusting, and hoping for good. The cynic in me recognised immediately she had been beaten by the better way, and in that moment I changed. I have taken your example, and I just wanted to say thank you, sir. From us all.

[Shari]

I do have a still photo of that frame - and it does "appear" to have the stripes. I am not computer savvy and do not have the ability to "unlayer" things as Dan has. I am new to this blooging and didn't mean to cause dissention. I completely trust that he has examined the photo thoroughly before coming to that comclusion. I guess we should move on from this topic.

[B.Heart]

Of course the tape, hair and "rag" may be unrelated to this case. We will probably know shortly whether or not it is. I have a problem however with those among us who characteristically, or uncharacteristically, get on their high horse about how others are speculating about this case. Without any more facts than we have what else could we do? Why would we be here if not to speculate? We could wait until the trial and the verdict and read about the "facts" in the MSM. There are a few, verified knowns in this case, along with a host of rumors and speculation. As long as we keep the distinction between them, known, unknown and debatable, I think we will do fine.

Right now I think it is a mistake to dismiss the cloth in the video as a spurious rag. Beside the question of why anyone would carry around a shredded rag, or whether the blond hair/tape found by the park ranger is or is not possible evidence because of the great possibility he failed to bag it right when he found it in the cave, I think shredded is exactly what I'd expect after 6-7 weeks of being shark food. The close up of the cloth looks to me like a piece of the upper pattern on white and part of the green border. If the dna comes back a match on the hair I'm going to bet that the reason the AG wanted to personally hand carry the hair and tape to Holland is because they expect it to be Natalee's and the reason for that is that they have a shredded piece of her top. Up til now ALE has been pretty nonchalant about the odds and ends they have picked up or been given.

Back to the man climbing up the rocky bank. It looks to me that he grabbed the cloth half way up and that he may have stumbled a bit and put out his hand to steady himself. If that cloth is a piece of evidence, and that fellow knew it, I'd say he was acting carelessly but that is no different from anything else picked up on that island-panties, duct tape, condoms- which were gathered up by various people and passed around before making it into a plastic evidence bag.

Suppose that the duct tape with many blond hairs turns out to be Natalee's. That would tell me that this was no simple date rape or accidental drug death. Duct tape with the victim's hair tells me that he was bound with it, across her mouth, or eyes, or both, probably her hands as well. So either this was a bondage rape or she was held captive somewhere, and then murdered, and it would seem, thrown overboard a half-mile or so off shore, weighted down, and became fish food. And now, pieces of what evidence is left are finding there way back to shore to expose the guilty parties to this crime.

[clintcarter]

"Infamous flip-flopping of opinion"
It has always bugged me that people (esp. politicians) who change their mind are subjected to claims of being wishy-washy and weak. Why shouldn't one read and learn and change their mind as a result? The issue is not what position you held before but how you explain what led to a change of mind. It's called growing.

[Dan]

Some people are incredibly unwilling to look at what is known. The notion of the "cloth" being part of her clothing didn't come from Fox - who has access to the cleanest look at it, as well as far better video technology to analyze it. ANyone who thinks THEY would be screaming about it to high heaven if it were relevant is simply being foolish.

As to my posting pictures to disprove a negative, why bother? All it would do is cost me more bandwidth - and the same people who thrive on conspiracy and or hype would find a million reasons to fault the analysis.

Someone wanted to bet money on this? What a joke. I don't bet money here - I bet my reputation everyday. And in the grand scheme of reporting what is or isn't known or accurate, my reputation is much more valuable than whatever paultry sum you might put up - though that, too, was likely only more hyperbole from the commenter.

Given that anyone can start a web log for free, I cannot help but be chagrined at having so many very lazy critics. Grab a blogger site and get going if you can do better - I'm not concerned from the competition, I'd welcome it. And welcome a good fellow web logger and colleague - emphasis on the word "good."

[ExGman]

Dan:
I will email you soon. For several reasons, I cannot post my actual email addy in a public forum. Funny that we were posting similar thoughts on this sunday......keep up the good work.

[Jessie]

The fact that the Fox camera guy noticed the item and Fox did not hit there viewers in the face with the speclation is worth taking note of. But knowing Fox is the we report you decide network, they really missed a big teaser there.

[sleuth]

Dan, you handled this with professionalism and wisdom. I admire your tight rein on your fingers, as mine would have typed some real nasty stuff.

Globetrotter, I tend to agree with most everything you said. Excellent post, excellent. I think one of the reasons so many of us want to think we know what happened is cause we see this stuff on tv nightly, and we want to make it real in real life, too.

And for all of you guys still convinced your Clue game is the correct scenario, pardon me if I just skim over your posts.

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

Dan,

Thanks, that was a little tough for you given you have to make some quick decisions and they sort of become "cast in the WWWeb" of our hard drives!

I too have doubts after reviewing my DVR recording several times as you did, but I think you had better capabilities than I did. I'll accept what you believe now since you had to make a retraction to say it!

However, I agree with the comment that to know for sure we would certainly have to be holding it.

Thanks a lot for taking the time to give us all you could.

[RealPotential]

thanks GlobeTrotter. Great Post.

[My point exactly]

To report that someone thought the cloth might be a piece of Natalee's top washed up on shore was the truth.
To claim definitely that it is would be dishonest.
To "hype" this article as very possibly the real thing when it is demonstrably not is very National Enquireresque. I personally would want no part of this as a reader or poster.
But to consider whether this is so or not seems at least as legitimate as any other discussion about what is real or unreal about this case, Why would this be off limits?
Frankly, I don't care whether it is or not, except to say I want the case to be solved and the guilty parties arrested, charged, tried, convicted and sentenced. I am hoping for a breakthru. And a definite word from someone on the inside that could say for sure that the "rag" is only a rag would be more valuable to me than all the opinions on this item.

[Althor]

Being, more or less, of a conservative frame of mind, I would say that I am a fairly faithful viewer of Fox News.

So, I find it appalling that lately I have had to turn to other sources for my news, because of the unrelenting coverage of the disappearance of Natalee Holloway in Aruba on Fox. However, I have not fared any better with CNN, Nancy Grace and friends, and other news channels!!!

I have six children, and five grandchildren, and I can assure you as a father, and grandfather, that in this tragedy, I totally empathize with the loss, pain, and anguish Natalee’s parents, and family, are suffering, and that in our family, our hearts and prayers go out to them. But if they need closure, so do we, the viewers.

I believe it also worth metioning, that in my opinion, this tragedy could have been averted with a bit more "parental discretion", and "common sense" on the part of Natalee's mother. No matter how mature a 17, or 18 year old is, or how bad they may wish to join their friends on a trip, as a parent, I would not feel comfortable to let my child loose, unsupervised, in an "Girls Gone Wild" kind of enviroment, fraught with booze, and readily available drugs, with little if any supervision, lest something like this happens. But then, that's just my point of view.

In the weeks previous to the London terrorist attacks all that could be seen on the news media, and specially on Fox News, 24/7, was about Aruba and the many spins on Natalee’s disappearance, at the expense of other news and developments around the world.

Unfortunately, and however we may disagree with it or dislike it, this tragic incident took place on foreign soil, their laws, and judicial proceedings are different from ours, and we have to wait for Aruban authorities, however incompetent they may seem to us, to conclude their investigations, and proceedings. Harping about it in a media circus every day, if anything, seems rather to generate negative reactions than to help, as witnessed in the recent protests in Aruba.

I was hoping after the London bombings, and the media’s attention had been diverted to the events unfolding there, that Natalee’s disappearance would be put in perspective by the media, and quietly relegated to a back burner, only to be revisited when any significant developments had taken place as the on-going investigations develop, but I was wrong.

On Fox, The O’Reilly Factor touches on the subject at least twice each night. Hannity and Colmes on average, devotes three segments of their show to Aruba nightly, with the consequent interview of several members of Natalee’s family (specially as of late, Natalee's aunt), redundant interviews of reporters with nothing new to add to the known facts, and with sundry Aruban officials, local lawyers, search team members, etc, etc, ad nauseam, all of them, again, spinning on conjectures, and possible scenarios, but with nothing new to add to the case. And Greta (God help us!), is back “On the Aruba with Greta Van Susteren Der Sloot” (forgive the pun). As a result, I don’t even wait to see what is coming up on Greta, but just switch the channel!

I switch to CNN, and lo and behold, Nancy Grace is the “Master of Ceremonies” of a veritable three ring saccharine "tabloid" circus about Natalee’s disappearance, joined by a panel of lawyers, forensic pathologists, palmists, and other experts, who after much disagreement, and extensive, erudite dissertation, can only agree on the fact, that for all their expertise, after all is said and done, they don’t know any more about the subject than the rest of us do!!!

For example, they recently were engaged in a lively discussion about what possible forensic evidence could be gleaned from an alleged “hickey” Van Der Sloot Jr. may, or may not, have had on his neck (depending on which alleged witness you believe) a couple of days after Natalee’s disappearance (as if this proves anything we didn’t suspect, or know). This, for good measure, is peppered once more with the endless barrage of interviews, particularly focusing on interviewing, again, every member of Natalee’s family, friends, and other members of their entourage, etc.

I watch in disbelief! What sense is there in having interviews with several different family members on the same show, on the same day, asking them all the same questions, to which they all, unequivocally, make the same answers? The only members of Natalee’s family the media has not interviewed so far, are the family pets, and I’m not even so sure on that one (have to check Animal Planet programming)!!!

While all of this ‘Natalee Holloway / Aruba” coverage is taking place, the news headlines on the very web sites of the very cable news channels conducting this barrage read (a recent example on Fox): “Israeli Air strikes kill six Hamas militants” ( Isn’t this something maybe we should have been discussing?),“Rice scrambles to squeeze-in trip to Mideast as violence rages” (Wonder if this will derail the peace efforts in the region?), “Attacks kill 29 across Iraq” ( Is the insurgency abating, or intensifying? ), and “UN shredder still shredding” (Isn’t there any legal recourse to stop the destruction of these documents which may shed light as to the extent of the corruption within the UN, and help the on-going investigations?) None of these items are touched upon on the aforementioned programs, or if so, only on a very elusory manner.

Other events are taking place around the world, many of which will affect all our lives, shouldn’t the media be focusing on them at this juncture, rather than on Natalee Holloway, and Aruba? And if, God forbid, her disappearance remains unsolved, for how long will we have to endure this never-ending Natalee Holloway coverage?

When is enough Natalee Holloway coverage, enough???

Althor