A Troubling Puzzle

This post is informed speculation based upon what I know from published reports supplemented with some leg work. For new blog readers, a blog is not a newspaper and one is as free to ruminate as they are to report only facts in another post. The ultimate value of a large connected blogging community is that one blog or individual may pick up a thread of thought from another, improve or refine it, and see where it leads from there, if anywhere.

That said, reader CG sent me a troubling image a day or two ago that stuck in my mind - suggesting perhaps something was being missed. That may be so as regards public discussion. Keep in mind that the Dutch system of Justice does not allow for evidence, or even threads of investigation to be shared with the public.

Americans, including me, feel frustrated by a Dutch legal system less transparent than ours by design - but that does not mean it isn't working. Under Dutch law, were they to be sharing information with the public in the manner to which Americans are accustomed, the case could easily be thrown out at trial; such public sharing of information is considered a serious violation of a defendant's rights within the Dutch system.

It could be disturbing if you are a reader who prefers to not read anything unpleasant as regards what might have happened to Natalee Holloway. I am warning you to not read on if that's the case.

These first images are from a report, widely circulated, of items turned up in a search of the Colony area on June 6. One of the images has been turned  upside down to make the label on the bottle more visible; though individuals by and large already know what it is the bottle may likely contain - Lysol.

Also found at that location was a piece of foam reported to have indentations one could interpret to be the impressions of human teeth and the item in the picture on left - a security guard shirt with the initials VGB. Note that the AP reported this as a tee-shirt. Also of note is that the search was scaled back the very next day.

We know that the Allegro Hotel employed a security firm to patrol their renovation site and that the two security guards arrested and now released were terminated because the contract ended right before the Natalee Holloway disappearance.

I talked to someone in Aruba about the security service shirt last night and was informed that it seemed to be "simply thrown away." Certainly there have been other items which we haven't been told about found during this search. That would make sense in light of a potential criminal prosecution in the near future. The report appeared in on line publication Aruba Today and June archives are not yet available. A jpg image of the full report is here.

.By joining factors above with confusing reports on the nature of Joran Van der Sloot during what seems an unending investigation, you might be able to paint several different pictures of events that night. I am suggesting only one possibility and not offering what I feel for certain will be the final explanation. It is simply too early to tell.

Suppose parts of the boys stories are true. Along with a bit of drinking, Natalee either takes a drug like ecstasy, or it's slipped into her drink. There was a case in Atlantic City some years back where a local bartender went on for years slipping drugs to girls in their drinks, only to take advantage of them later. Most of those cases went unreported. It would be interesting to know if other female tourists visiting Aruba have experienced this, assuming it has been reported.

Natalee could have found herself at the lighthouse, or elsewhere, with one, or three boys with alcohol and a drug in her system leading to some type of overdose. Lose of body control, tremors or near convulsions are all symptoms associated with many drug and alcohol induced overdoses.

In one theoretical stream of events the boy or boys panic, call someone for assistance and advice. This assumes that they thought it was fine to drug a tourist to take advantage of them, but never intended to kill anyone. Or that Natalee found herself in this condition having voluntarily taken anything consumed

My interest in the two Croes pictures was this - the small picture is taken from an earlier link to a book review by a not very articulate steve croes - the book was for EMT training.  Who would you call if a woman went under from an accidental or illegal drug over dose? However, it seems to be another steve croes altogether and that fact can be incorporated into this speculative report.

Imagine a boy, or boys making a call and being told to put something in the girls mouth to prevent her from biting or swallowing her tongue. That's not unreasonable advice someone might give another, or a step an individual chooses to take on his own given common thinking. One tragic result that has occurred from this in the past is that the unprofessional can actually place something, a bit of foam, for example, in the mouth which results in the person drowning on their own vomit - should it occur - or simply suffocating.

My mind goes to the possibility of vomiting as a result of fluids found in the car that were not blood and have now fallen into the black hole of information represented by the Dutch justice system - which I am not judging here, by the way. So, what starts out as either playful partying, or the crime of drugging to take advantage turns into, in effect, a murder.

If the boys washed their hands of this at this time - say by driving back toward town and making an arrangement with another party to dispose of the body - it could explain why they are not "breaking." They might actually not have been in the loop as far as a potential concealing of the body goes. It would be a sequence of events difficult to follow through the establishment of evidence, or interrogation.

Remember when there was a confession and Natalee was said to be dead? The authorities might have known what happened up to here, but as they could not complete the second part of the puzzle, what happened to Natalee, there would be good reason for them not wanting that, or anything disclosed. Keep in mind, if that were the case, any defendant might walk at trial, hurting Aruba's image even more.

By design, we don't know what type of investigation has been going on behind the scenes; what some evidence might mean; or what other suspects the boys may have mentioned and how the investigation was going forward. Enter the alibi.

The AP's T-shirt wasn't a T-shirt but a seemingly casually discarded security guard shirt left near some other curious evidence already mentioned. And we're to believe that this means nothing? The boys told police they saw the girl approached by two security guards. A security guard shirt just happened to be left at a curious and later discovered scene. Later, two basically unsophisticated men were arrested and we were on our way to resolution of a terrible crime. But something went wrong.

The security company's contract had expired with the Allegro Hotel just one day before the night of Natalee's disappearance. The guards, who someone might have reasonably assumed would be present near the Holiday Inn that night were not: they had solid alibis.

In the green room at Fox last night I was discussing the known facts and some conjectures with NYPD Detective Gil Alba. He agreed that it would take some intelligence and sophistication to map this all out. I agree. So far everyone eventually held in this case was first questioned as a witness. Last night the elder Van der Sloot was brought in and spent four hours with authorities being questioned as a possible witness. What that might mean, I don't know.

Unfortunately, one also needs to account for the body, assuming there is or was one. As for disposal of a body - there is a terrible possibility. Googling around I found the site of a tourist who put up and captioned some pictures from a trip to Aruba.

At the northernmost tip is the California lighthouse (seen later from boat). Then we started down the rougher, eastern (Atlantic) side. They told us they feed the sharks on this side daily, to keep them away from the tourist side. I don't know if that's true, but the ocean was so rough you wouldn't have wanted to swim here anyway. The whole east half of the island looks a lot like this.

On Fox TV last night they were discussing the islands waters with a  boat captain and apparently the other side of the island is well known to have sharks. This doesn't appear an item that Aruba is too anxious to promote.

He dismissed rumors that police may investigate coastal waters on the north side of the island known to have sharks. "Sure, we have shark places on the northern side, but they have nothing to do with the investigation," he said.

I asked a reader from Aruba about the matter, already knowing that the island once contained a slaughterhouse I believe is closed:

One other comment...all Arubans know that Boca Mahos is where the sharks have always been fed...for over 60 years the edible waste has been dumped there at specific times to let the sharks dispose of butcher shop offal, etc.

Anyone who had deliberately tried to dispose of a body would have backed up to the edge of Boca Mahos and thrown it there...and the FBI divers were not about to go diving in Boca Mahos to look for bones in the turbulent seas.

...just toss the body into the waters of Boca Mahos and that would be the end of it. All of my friends had the same response: Boca Mahos.

As for this post - it's just one theory.

Comments

[plf]

They just interviewed Jug Twitty on Fox News and he said that he thinks that Paul Van dar Sloot knows exactly what happened to Natalee. He said when they sopke to VDS Sr the first night they arrived on the island that he came across as arrogant and a slime ball. It makes you wonder just how many are in on Natalee's disappearance. I pray they find her soon.

[plf]

I qouted Mr Twitty as saying VDS Sr was arrogant and a slime ball but he actually said he was obnoxious and a slime ball. Sorry about that.

[Kelli]

I've been thinking about your post Dan and started thinking something else,lol.If Natalee started seizuring or something,why not just take her to the hospital?It would have been hard to prove she didn't take it herself if it was ecstasy.A rap that could easily be beat I would think.Hmmmm,maybe it was rufies? She wouldn't have taken that voluntarily but still again,they could have claimed innocence and probably beat that too. There must have been something that went on that they don't want anyone to find out about because it's probably going to mean life in the big house.My gut tells me there is some real activity going on in this case that involves those higher up.I almost expect Yoran's father to be arrested anyday.I can only imagine what his part in it was..The mother too.I wonder why she didn't sense something was going on with Yoran and his mood.I can't help to think I would notice something like that about my kid.You wouldn't think at 17 he would be a smooth criminal and able to hide emotion's..I just hope this thing get's solved soon before we all have to get ulcer medicine.

[arubagirl]

Nope, the drive thru closes at well. And yes, sam, I doubted the "where" of your post.

There are no pay phones in the neighbourhood of the McDonald's downtown. There are several, however, next to the McDonald's at the highrise.

They aren't quarter phones, you have to have a phone card, and I don't think v/dSloot walks with them. Also, most everyone here walks around with pre-paid cell phones. I don't know how easy or hard it is to trace those phones.

[Dawn]

Aren't there lie detector tests available in Aruba? Where I live, the results wouldn't be admissible in a court, but at least people may get more answers than they are now getting from these young men?

[OneHappyChica]

Would someone be so kind as to explain Dutch (criminal) law to me? I fear that I’m missing something here.

Dan: “Keep in mind that the Dutch system of Justice does not allow for evidence, or even threads of investigation to be shared with the public…such public sharing of information is considered a serious violation of a defendant's rights within the Dutch system.”

Does this mean that the conflicting accounts (of Joran and the Kalpoes) are not considered “threads of the investigation” since they have been freely shared with the masses?

Is evidence solely physical/tangible? Are ALL evidentiary (media) leaks damaging to the prosecutor and beneficial to the defense? Do officials regularly “neither confirm nor deny” potential evidence?

Is it unfair for me to ask…if a Dutch female teenager mysteriously disappeared on Aruba, would these same laws apply? Would the suspects be cuddled up in a blanket of silence?

[New Jersey Woman]

I have vacationed on the island of Aruba many times I myself have said I found paradise. This
was a place my husband and I enjoyed yearly. We also spent a large amount of money staying there 15 days at a time. Now we could not imagine being there we have no one to protect us. It is hard to understand how you can expect Americans to keep
the economy going in Aruba and not have justice
prevail in Natalee's case. I just hope the American people boycott the island. Can anyone tell me if Natalee's family are paying for their own exspenses or is the Arubian government atleast
paying for them? I believe this 17 year old was
responsible for the death and ran home to daddy who covered it up. I want this youngman clothes to
be tested the one he had on the nite he was with Natalee. If this happened in America we would have
had the case solved by now. We all know what happened that night and who did it. Sorry Aruba
your on your own without the Americans money.
St. Lucia sounds nice to me or maybe our own Florida many beautiful places.

[Aruban]

The Steve Croes that is a paramedic is not the Steve Croes that works on the Tattoo. The paramedic is a very good person. I know him! The Steve Croes holding the Bacardi Bottle is the one arrested.

[Aruban]

Dawn, lie detector tests are not aloud in the Dutch judicial system.

[hammer]

Sadly, i believe that the scenario laid out by Dan has a high probability of being true. There are numerous minor details we could debate, but the big picture outcome has probably been laid out.

BODY MASS: Joran and his young pals slipepd Natalee something in her drink, or she agreed to take a pill ona lark. Joran lists himself at 6'5" tall and 190 pounds on his now-deep-sixed tickle sire. Natalee is described as 5'4" and 110 pounds.

The same dosage drug that might affect Joran, or a BOY/MAN his size, could very probbaly have avery different affect on a girl Natalee's size:

1. Pure weight calc: Joran is 70% bigger than Natalee per body weight. It would take far less drug to induce the same affect on Natalee.

2. Female physiology will show greater proportions of "fat" making up body weight and density vs. "muscle" for males. Fat has a far greater storage capacity for ingested material vs muscle. This is why, in cold weather survival situations, unusually hi proportions of females survive. However, this advantage is reversed when it comes to the intake and ingestion of certain types of drugs. A near-petite female Natalee's size, may well have been rendered unconscious or worse from what might be considered a "normal dose" of a "date rape drug" or other nefarious narcotic.

IMO, this view buttresses Dan's original contention that something "bad" happened. Indeed: it's possible these three idiots slipped Natalee something that killed her -- not intentionally -- but because they don't understand the physical ramifications of drug ingestion ona female Natalee's size. It's further possible the boys "manufactured" the drugs themselves.

[cindyiee]

Dan's theory makes sense to me. But I have one lingering question I've not seen answered anywhere. Were the Kalpoe brothers at C&C's with Joran or did they just happen to drive up and conveniently pick up Joran and Natalee? This may speak a bit to motive in my mind. I'm also intrigued by Mr. Twitty's statement referencing Mr. van der Sloot... an obnoxious slimeball. Pretty strong language after meeting someone only once. Must have been one interesting conversation going on. I learned long ago that just as women can size up other women pretty quickly, men can do exactly the same thing.

[Joe Evans]

Would someone please explain to me how a person could "swallow their tongue"? Saying something like this causes me to give less credibility to the person who said it. Unless the person's tongue is cut or bitten off, it is physically impossible for them to swallow it. This is a common misconception. If a person is unconscious it *is* possible for the tongue to fall back and block the airway but it isn't swallowed. As stated earlier, a paramedic or EMT would certainly not tell someone to stick anything in a seizing or unconscious person's mouth. This can and will often actually block the airway.

It is a bit of an "old wive's tale" to stick a spoon or something similar in a seizure patient's mouth, so it isn't beyond reasonable that a non-medical person might have done this.

--joe

[hammer]

One of the great fears EMT's have when treating an epileptic seizure is the victim "swallowing" his/her tongue.

In other types of neuro-responsive seizures, the same thing can happen.

A tongue swallowing episode carries a hi fatality rate.

[phil]

One thing that I thought was ominous: Whether it was on CNN or Fox, can't recall...But they interviewed one of the teens who was with Natalee at Carlos & Charlies and I think it was Natalee they quoted as saying when she got into the car with the three guys as saying that they were going to the lighthouse to "look at the sharks."

It makes me think, of course, that the three guys had sharks on their minds. So they were up to no good from the start. Maybe they used the sharks as an attraction. Gang rape happened. Or she Overdosed. So they had the body fed to the sharks. Sharks were already on their minds.
Whatever happened, these sick guys need to spend their lives behind bars if they did any such heinious acts.

Maybe the Tatoo party boat suspect made the body dump arrangements. And if that's the case he should be locked up for life as well.

[Joe Evans]

Hammer,

Your statments are ridiculous and untrue. I hope you were joking. Actually, I don't care if you were or not.

Sheesh......

[Lurker]

Been lurking here for awhile, thanks for the great service you're doing here, Dan.

I just wanted to post a link to the first reference to the ''shark'' topic that I've seen - earlier this week - from the Caribbean Net News.

Buried in this article (2nd to last paragraph)
http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/2005/06/16/blacklist.shtml

''Caribbean Net News has also learnt that there is a 'shark's den' on one side of the island and FBI agents have developed an interest in the area. The sharks are reportedly fed daily in that location to keep tourists safe on the other side.''

[barb]

I don't buy anything I hear or read any longer, it's all the same fabricated BS which makes the tabloids rich.

It was reported by an eyewitness from Boston, a female visitor to Aruba, that she observed Natalee OUT OF CONTROL in the restroom of the night club she and her classmates visited. OUT OF CONTROL!Meaning, "drunk as a skunk"?

Her classmates state that Natalie only drank moderately ( they did also) and there was nothing wrong with her. Right!

I call this a nice Alabama coverup, like biting into a pretty peach and the inside is full of worms. I think the people to question are the friends who were at that club, they are covering up because they all took advantage of the "18 - lets booze" and are now trying to be the good guys.

US authorities need to concentrate on the friends of Natalee's, I believe they know more than the guys they have in jail in Aruba presently.

[Kelli]

Yeah right!!! Like the poster that posted somewhere else that one of the boys killed her and carried her home in his suitcase to rid the body in Alabama..(Inserting rolling eyes)..I doubt her friends had anything to do with this.Now the one's in jail?Different story.When you start telling lies,guilt over-rides...JMO

[TheTruth]

Maria, you are speaking out of ignorance when you say that the police are only searching the areas that the boys tell them, and need to start searching the more obvious areas (caves, beaches, shark areas, etc).

The Aruban authorities said (almost a week ago now) that they have searched every area that a body may have been placed. That included the caves. They followed that by saying that they are not claiming that the body is not anywhere on Aruba, as they could have missed something in their search, but they said with confidence that every area on Aruba had been thorughly searched.

I mean OBVIOUSLY this would be the case, Maria, they wouldn't search ONLY the areas that suspects claim. I do agree with your point, that it is likely that a suspect would NOT mention an area they actually buried a body at, but any logical mind would think that as well.

[phil]

This whole Natalee thing isn't very hard to figure. Let's face it - she wasn't the run away type. Everyone says that who knew her. She's either dead and in the water or alive and being held....the latter being unlikely.

If those three or four had access to a boat and some weights & knew where the sharks feed they would have cosen the vastness of the sea to dump a body, not a 20 mile by 6 mile Island.

Natalee was a kid trying to have a good time - asserting her newfound adult independence. So what if she got drunk? She didn't deserve to be
drugged, raped and killed if that's what happened.
Don't blame Natalee. Blame the slime balls who got rid of her.

If her pals from Alabama know anything, they should fes up and talk. It would help the investigation.

I'm sick to death of male predators. This gal had a life to live. They had no right to take it and if something went wrong and there wasn't any foul play they where cowards for not reporting it.

[mona]

I believe the Party Boat Captain...Steve Croes? probably suppiled the GHB or date rape drug....Similar to the bartender in Dans post.

[Karen]

I heard on Hannity and Coombs tonight that Natalee has run away before, and that she is alive and just wanted to get away. Anyone else he see that tonight?

[phil]

I saw the Hannity & Combs report regarding the allegation by the Aruban P.I. that she had ran off before. Now, the family denies this. But still...Is there any truth to the allegation? Has any one of you bloggers found anything? IF SO, KICK OUT THE INFO INTO THIS FORUM & WE ALL CAN RESEARCH AND LOOK INTO THIS!

If there is a hidden side to Natalee, this needs to be looked into. A person can live a double life. Punctual and resposible to friends. Wild and troubled personally.

What if she did run off and the suspects are innocent? I doubt this scenario, but it must be addressed.

But if this is the case, it is very troubling. Because several persons would be inprisoned for nothing other than to preserve Aruba's image.

Phil

[phil]

So today the dutch boys dad is in custody? Apparently, he may know something.......

Here are my theories:

I think that we have to take into account that the 17-year-old Joran is a petty kid with kid connections. Either he raped Natalee and she struggled on that beach and he accidently or intentionally killed her, or all three of the suspects did the raping and accidental or intentional killing. Perhaps Natalee fell and hit her head either in a struggle or by accident. Either way, Joran or Joran or the others are left with a body on the beach and it is dark. So they dispose of it.....If it was Joran alone, he calls the two others to come back and they help him dispose of the body. If all three were there, they all take the body and get rid of it.

Joran is later let off at home that morning. His dad waited for him and questioned him. He finds out too much and covers for Joran and even goes to the crime scene to sanitize it....or....The crime scene was already sanitized by the three....or....somehow when it is light, early...the three sanitize the scene. Perhaps the crime scene is the car, easy to sanitize later.

The tatto disk jockey learns something by e-mail from one of the surinamese guys. And he covers. Why? Did he supply the date rape drug and this was a heads up?

And....Natalee probably was drugged and drunk when it happened.

These theories may be way off...Perhaps she was kidnapped or ran off. But I doubt these scenarios after closely following the Fox and CNN coverage.

[phil]

Absoultely bewildered by this case. Time frame was short for Joran to adequately conceal a body, it seems. Plus that kid doesn't seem that well connected. He didn't even have a car.

The father was released. The disc Jockey is to be released.

Only hope is the Texas team may find a body.

But then I wonder....Did Natalee run off?

[pepperbird]

When you knowingly fabricate a story to the legal authorities, especially in a criminal investigation, I strongly believe that that is "obstruction of justice." The party-boat DJ, Paulaus van der Sloot, the Kalpoe brothers and others, need to be behind bars! The have impeded the progress of the investigation. From the moment that Natalee was reported missing, van der "SLUTS" and his cohorts had concocted a series of lies and those lies did provide them time to get rid of evidence that could have aided the authorities in Natalee's search. The police concentrated on two innocent "black" young men based on lies by these "criminals." The police are themselves guilty of obstruction of justice. I strongly believe that the United States government needs to get involved in this issue!

[greekgirl]

My opinion is that the Van der sloot guy killed Natalee.Maybe I sound prejudiced but his face and expression fit the criminal type!!I just hope that this case won't turn out to be another cold never-to-be-solved case of a young attractive girl who was killed by scums who don't even have a conscience.
This selfish crime must not go unpunished.Send the killers to the gas chamber!!

[Anchor]

hmmmmmm...

And this outfit is coming into question again??????

Yeah, I know this thread is basically dead....
had to post anyways.