A Troubling Puzzle

This post is informed speculation based upon what I know from published reports supplemented with some leg work. For new blog readers, a blog is not a newspaper and one is as free to ruminate as they are to report only facts in another post. The ultimate value of a large connected blogging community is that one blog or individual may pick up a thread of thought from another, improve or refine it, and see where it leads from there, if anywhere.

That said, reader CG sent me a troubling image a day or two ago that stuck in my mind - suggesting perhaps something was being missed. That may be so as regards public discussion. Keep in mind that the Dutch system of Justice does not allow for evidence, or even threads of investigation to be shared with the public.

Americans, including me, feel frustrated by a Dutch legal system less transparent than ours by design - but that does not mean it isn't working. Under Dutch law, were they to be sharing information with the public in the manner to which Americans are accustomed, the case could easily be thrown out at trial; such public sharing of information is considered a serious violation of a defendant's rights within the Dutch system.

It could be disturbing if you are a reader who prefers to not read anything unpleasant as regards what might have happened to Natalee Holloway. I am warning you to not read on if that's the case.

These first images are from a report, widely circulated, of items turned up in a search of the Colony area on June 6. One of the images has been turned  upside down to make the label on the bottle more visible; though individuals by and large already know what it is the bottle may likely contain - Lysol.

Also found at that location was a piece of foam reported to have indentations one could interpret to be the impressions of human teeth and the item in the picture on left - a security guard shirt with the initials VGB. Note that the AP reported this as a tee-shirt. Also of note is that the search was scaled back the very next day.

We know that the Allegro Hotel employed a security firm to patrol their renovation site and that the two security guards arrested and now released were terminated because the contract ended right before the Natalee Holloway disappearance.

I talked to someone in Aruba about the security service shirt last night and was informed that it seemed to be "simply thrown away." Certainly there have been other items which we haven't been told about found during this search. That would make sense in light of a potential criminal prosecution in the near future. The report appeared in on line publication Aruba Today and June archives are not yet available. A jpg image of the full report is here.

.By joining factors above with confusing reports on the nature of Joran Van der Sloot during what seems an unending investigation, you might be able to paint several different pictures of events that night. I am suggesting only one possibility and not offering what I feel for certain will be the final explanation. It is simply too early to tell.

Suppose parts of the boys stories are true. Along with a bit of drinking, Natalee either takes a drug like ecstasy, or it's slipped into her drink. There was a case in Atlantic City some years back where a local bartender went on for years slipping drugs to girls in their drinks, only to take advantage of them later. Most of those cases went unreported. It would be interesting to know if other female tourists visiting Aruba have experienced this, assuming it has been reported.

Natalee could have found herself at the lighthouse, or elsewhere, with one, or three boys with alcohol and a drug in her system leading to some type of overdose. Lose of body control, tremors or near convulsions are all symptoms associated with many drug and alcohol induced overdoses.

In one theoretical stream of events the boy or boys panic, call someone for assistance and advice. This assumes that they thought it was fine to drug a tourist to take advantage of them, but never intended to kill anyone. Or that Natalee found herself in this condition having voluntarily taken anything consumed

My interest in the two Croes pictures was this - the small picture is taken from an earlier link to a book review by a not very articulate steve croes - the book was for EMT training.  Who would you call if a woman went under from an accidental or illegal drug over dose? However, it seems to be another steve croes altogether and that fact can be incorporated into this speculative report.

Imagine a boy, or boys making a call and being told to put something in the girls mouth to prevent her from biting or swallowing her tongue. That's not unreasonable advice someone might give another, or a step an individual chooses to take on his own given common thinking. One tragic result that has occurred from this in the past is that the unprofessional can actually place something, a bit of foam, for example, in the mouth which results in the person drowning on their own vomit - should it occur - or simply suffocating.

My mind goes to the possibility of vomiting as a result of fluids found in the car that were not blood and have now fallen into the black hole of information represented by the Dutch justice system - which I am not judging here, by the way. So, what starts out as either playful partying, or the crime of drugging to take advantage turns into, in effect, a murder.

If the boys washed their hands of this at this time - say by driving back toward town and making an arrangement with another party to dispose of the body - it could explain why they are not "breaking." They might actually not have been in the loop as far as a potential concealing of the body goes. It would be a sequence of events difficult to follow through the establishment of evidence, or interrogation.

Remember when there was a confession and Natalee was said to be dead? The authorities might have known what happened up to here, but as they could not complete the second part of the puzzle, what happened to Natalee, there would be good reason for them not wanting that, or anything disclosed. Keep in mind, if that were the case, any defendant might walk at trial, hurting Aruba's image even more.

By design, we don't know what type of investigation has been going on behind the scenes; what some evidence might mean; or what other suspects the boys may have mentioned and how the investigation was going forward. Enter the alibi.

The AP's T-shirt wasn't a T-shirt but a seemingly casually discarded security guard shirt left near some other curious evidence already mentioned. And we're to believe that this means nothing? The boys told police they saw the girl approached by two security guards. A security guard shirt just happened to be left at a curious and later discovered scene. Later, two basically unsophisticated men were arrested and we were on our way to resolution of a terrible crime. But something went wrong.

The security company's contract had expired with the Allegro Hotel just one day before the night of Natalee's disappearance. The guards, who someone might have reasonably assumed would be present near the Holiday Inn that night were not: they had solid alibis.

In the green room at Fox last night I was discussing the known facts and some conjectures with NYPD Detective Gil Alba. He agreed that it would take some intelligence and sophistication to map this all out. I agree. So far everyone eventually held in this case was first questioned as a witness. Last night the elder Van der Sloot was brought in and spent four hours with authorities being questioned as a possible witness. What that might mean, I don't know.

Unfortunately, one also needs to account for the body, assuming there is or was one. As for disposal of a body - there is a terrible possibility. Googling around I found the site of a tourist who put up and captioned some pictures from a trip to Aruba.

At the northernmost tip is the California lighthouse (seen later from boat). Then we started down the rougher, eastern (Atlantic) side. They told us they feed the sharks on this side daily, to keep them away from the tourist side. I don't know if that's true, but the ocean was so rough you wouldn't have wanted to swim here anyway. The whole east half of the island looks a lot like this.

On Fox TV last night they were discussing the islands waters with a  boat captain and apparently the other side of the island is well known to have sharks. This doesn't appear an item that Aruba is too anxious to promote.

He dismissed rumors that police may investigate coastal waters on the north side of the island known to have sharks. "Sure, we have shark places on the northern side, but they have nothing to do with the investigation," he said.

I asked a reader from Aruba about the matter, already knowing that the island once contained a slaughterhouse I believe is closed:

One other comment...all Arubans know that Boca Mahos is where the sharks have always been fed...for over 60 years the edible waste has been dumped there at specific times to let the sharks dispose of butcher shop offal, etc.

Anyone who had deliberately tried to dispose of a body would have backed up to the edge of Boca Mahos and thrown it there...and the FBI divers were not about to go diving in Boca Mahos to look for bones in the turbulent seas.

...just toss the body into the waters of Boca Mahos and that would be the end of it. All of my friends had the same response: Boca Mahos.

As for this post - it's just one theory.

Comments

[Marigot Bay]

don't buy it. for the simple fact that the bag containing the lysol is dirty. that suggests its been there a while, possibly through rain, which if you see the type of "dried mud" it is sitting on, also suggests it rained there. Plus the bag is virtually "vacumn sealed" against the contents therein. Agains suggesting the elements over time have taken a toll.

[Lois]

Dan, I learn more on your Blog than from all news sources combined. I do believe that the Judge knows a lot and hope he's detained soon. (He's the father of a 17 year old who could go to prison for life. Of course, he would help the son cover his tracks). FYI: saw you on Jamie's show. You did pretty good considering she's one of my least favorite interviewers. Thanks for your site.

[Florida Girl]

Fox is reporting that the parents of suspect JVDS are being interrogated as witnesses, but not as suspects. All three suspects have now been moved to the KIA (Aruba Prison)

[patrick]

it's too bad we are left only to conjecture at this point because of two factors...one, being the dutch law system on Aruba limiting the authorities to reveal evidence obtained and two, the most important factor, that the investigation was so bungled from the beginning that we are left with what is increasingly appearing to be a cold case. Any evidence could have easily been disposed of while the three were cut loose the first time. They lawyered up and got their stories together. They are the guilty ones in my opinion. The two surinamese/indian boys had no reason to lie to investigators initially about dropping NH off at the Holiday Inn and then changing the story to NH and JV being dropped off at the Marriott (if reports are true) unless they were hiding something.

[bama girl]

Dan, of what relevance is the Lysol?

[Chris Tremblay]

Wow, intersting theory. It seems very realistic. I too agree, that the Dutch handling of this investigation seems ineffective and if the us was in control we would have closure by now. I remember politicalteen.com had fox video from june 11th or so reporting Natalee was dead, and investigators were taking the family to the body etc... This video was aired shortly before coming down. Makes you think there is a cover, that they know she was murdered but they need a few more pieces to the puzzle before releasing that news to the public. Regardless, this whole thing is awful and as each day passes the knot in my stomach grows larger. I cant imagine why they dont have answers yet, my guess is the dutch judicial system is corrupt and the protection of aruba tourism is more important.
my heart is with the holloway family, i cant say i know what they are going through, but i can and will pray for them...

[Florida Girl]

Jossy Mansur, Editor in Chief, Dairio being interviewed says:

JVDS parents are at the police station now being interrogated as witnesses. All three suspects have been moved to the prison. He feels the FBI are playing a big role in the case.

[willo]

Interesting theory. But I'm confused about the security guard shirt--how would that fit in? And the Lysol also? Sorry if I'm missing something.

[patrick]

the fact that the parents have been picked up as witnesses is troubling to me. I believe the case has gone cold. If the authorities have nothing more than to go after Joran's parents, then they have little or nothing left of value to find NH and solve this mystery. Obviously, they are looking for anyone or anything that can break down Joran and his story and are trying to get it from friend Croes, Surinamese and his parents. Problem is, now he's lawyered up, got rid of the evidence and NH, and pop's probably told him to keep his mouth shut. This should have all been done on day one. NH parents had the kid ID'd in a few hours and were leaning on him at his home. The cops just blew this thing horribly.

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

Diario editor on fox now. Jossy Mansour

Did any one hear what he said?

[Argh]

Perhaps the foam with bite marks was not placed in her mouth to prevent the swallowing of her tongue... perhaps it was put her mouth to keep her from shouting as she was either raped, kidnapped, or worse. I wonder if anyone thought to test it for salavia for it's identifing DNA.

My guess is this...

Joran owed money to bad people... Joran sold girl to bad people to pay off debt... Daddy knowns son is guilty because Daddy is owned by same bad people...

[Florida Girl]

My question:

Why are they just now questioning JVDS's parents, and purportedly as "witnesses". The Diario Editor said possibly questioning them as to the movements of JVDS on the night Natalee went missing. First, if they are witnesses, wouldn't that say to everyone that JVDS is still highly suspect? They have to have something on him, but this leads me to believe that it isn't much.... this is so frustrating!!

[DN]

Agree, that something happened while the three were set free for that short period of time. And now this case will never be solved, and we will all be left here wondering forever with no answers. And they will end up making a made for TV movie on lifetime about this story. blah!

[Trish]

So the Lysol bag is dirty? Who says the "dirt" came from where it was found? It is possible that the bag was from the crime scene ... a dirty floor that was damp or hosed down. Maybe it was thrown in a truck bed that wasn't clean. I hope the substance on the bag was checked to see what it might be and where it could have come from.

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

"elder Van der Sloot was brought in and spent four hours with authorities being questioned as a possible witness"

Fox just showed video of Paulus VDS leaving the "interview w polis - at night, running very fast down a dark street to very very quickly try (frantically) to get his keys into door, open it, get in, frantically start engine and drive off in a jolt. Appearently trying to avoid reporters questions or camera shots of his face.

He sure does not want to talk to US.

[Florida Girl]

DN -

I don't know if you have seen this yet, but it is an article out of the Birmingham area reagarding the sequence of events that took place from the time Natalee's parents landed in Aruba....it gives information as to the encounter they had with JVDS and his parents about 24 hours after Natalee went missing. NOTE: When the parents arrived at his house at 1am (24 hours after he was last seen with Natalee), his father told them he was out gambling, and when they came back later he was home and one of the Kalpoe brothers was with him........... hence your thoughts (and mine) that they were working on their "story" at that time.... check it out!

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/NEWSV5/storyV5familysearch19w.htm

[Dan]

To answer a few questions - the Lysol and bag - lysol to clean up with, as to the bags appearance, click on the picture to open it. It isn't necessarily dirt. The shirt - um, pardon me, the three boys claimed to have seen her last with whom??? and you would assume they would be wearing what?? I mean, come on ... geesh. I'll give ya the bag, but the shirt is obvious. In this theory they tried to set up the security guards - then ratted them out.

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

Father VDS is the family head, money earner. He is the one who allowed (supported, enabled) Joran to have a lifestyle of separate apartment, gambling, drinking, girls -- all while JVDS is doing so well (?) in school? When I tryed that in HS my grades went from honor role to D roll in a year!

The boy didn't do this without permission and money supply -- or did he also have a lucrative (legitimate?) job he held down during his "off hours"?

[patrick]

I don't know about the lysol and shirt. It's plausible I guess. Again, it sucks we have such little to even go on here. My feelings are that these kids aren't smart enough to strategize and execute a very sophisticated trap to set up others. They would have left finger prints on the lysol bottle or done something else that would lead investigators back to them. I'm sure that kid Joran knows every inch of that island and where to hide someone or something so finding her could be a real problem since he isn't talking now and the best oppty to get him to speak was blown by the cops.

[tideroller]

Dan - It sounds like you've got a good grip on things.

[ArubaTraveller]

as much as this scenario seems possible... I find it hard to believe if the 3 boys were simply involved in an evening of partying that went wrong (and not a malicious/dliberate act) there would not be some sort of confession by now.

[Florida Girl]

Akeko:

You are correct...he was allowed to do these things, with permission of his parents. If you look at that article link I posted a few minutes ago, when NH's parents got to the VDS home at 1am (Monday night, Tuesday morning) his father told them that JVDS was out "gambling". Obviously his parents were well aware of what the kid was doing.... They are covering up for him! Unbelievable!!

[stacy]

hey dan! i'm glad you put up the info about the sharks being fed, i had no idea about that and now i'm convinced that was probably where that poor girl ended up. i guess all anyone can hope for is if they find some clothes around that area that is if they didnt take them off her first. that would be the one way to make what they done disappear..then all they had to do is burn her clothes.. it just ticks me off that the police gave them 2 weeks to do this and i will never believe the story that they let them go to watch them ...that was a lets cover are butt excuse.....stacy tennessee

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

FOX reporting on parents VDS being questioned right now. They are waiting at their car for them to come out. The keep showing the video of Paul VDS running to car last night.

[willo]

I'm having trouble figuring out what's in the bag with the Lysol? Ideas?

[patrick]

I may not entirely buy into Dan's theory, but again, i think it's plausible. I do however, appreciate his thinking outside the box. Certainly, the investigators there are not doing that. Heck, they haven't even done the basics correctly.

[Florida Girl]

George Szucs, Fox News Producer outside Police station right now waiting on parents to come out:

News crew was at VDS's home this morning, spoke to neighbor. Neighbor said Joran was a good boy and had nothing but positive things to say about him and his parents. (duh!!, and he thought they would what???)

Spokesperson from police station comes out and gives them information occasionally.

[DN]

Thanks Florida Girl, I never saw that till now..

[Mary]

Seems like Fox is the only one that keep us up on what is going on. They just interviewed on man and he said he thinks Natalee was taken off the island and is still alive.
I wish and hope this is true. This has turned into a big mystery.
What are any of your thoughts????????

[Island Hopper]

Were the teeth marks compared to Natalee's? The lysol would have been used to clean up the vomit in the car. Vomit in the car may have tested presumably positive for blood because it it a bodily fluid. Hopefully the FBI did further testing since they had a sample.
I doubt this 17 year old was able to cover up the crime by himself, but with the help up his daddy he would have little trouble.

[michele]

Hey Dan, you said "fallen into the black hole of information represented by the Dutch justice system - which I am not judging here, by the way."

I just wanted to comment that while it's very nice of you to "not judge" the Dutch justice system, I think we ought to judge it and everything that has gone on in regards to Natalee.

If you read this article, you will see that those young men had every reason to cover up what has happened to Natalee.

NO ONE in a position of authority, including the police, did a single thing to help find Natalee UNTIL the media got involved.

"Natalee Holloway's family, not Aruban police, first identified and located a Dutch youth now held as a suspect in the disappearance of the Alabama teen, according to a friend who helped with the search."

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/NEWSV5/storyV5familysearch19w.htm

And when the media goes away, the authorities will go away and close the file on Natalee.

They didn't seem to want it opened in the first place.

[AkekoaHoAlethia]

When would the neighbor have seen much of JORAN. "At 1 am", almost nightly, "he's at the casino..."
PVDS

[mike]

Occam's Razor, Dan. Possible but implausible. Simpliest explanation is the usually the correct one.

[Island Hopper]

I must admit I was happy to see this article http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/NEWSV5/storyV5familysearch19w.htm.
If you read back I have complained about this since day 1.

[Allison]

Mary, I believe she is alive. There is too much going on and everyday there is someone new being questioned that might be connected to the case.

I feel that if it had just been one man in this crime we would never get the real story but their are too many people involved.

A lot of people make comments about how big this is and say it is bc of her being white and from a well off family. The reason why this is so big is because her parents are not going to give up and are able to stay in Aruba and see that everything be done. Not many people have the priveldge or funds to allow them to do so or may simply feel their child is gone and nothing can be done.

The boys probably thought that she would have just been a missing person and eventually it would just go away. They didn't realize how involved her parents would become and this is why it has become so big and why answers are slowly coming out.

Natalee's parents and family are not giving up and are not leaving until they have answers. The community and boys are now starting to believe this.....

Hopefully they will all come clean and Natalee will be returned to her family safe.

[Getagrip]

The had a segment a few days ago on Fox, where Julie Banderas went on a boat trip around the island and interviewed the boat captain. According to what he said, because of the winds and rough waters, a body dumped in the waters north, east and south would eventually wash up back to shore. On the other hand, a body dumped in the western part, would be miles away within hours (sorry, can't find the video on the FOX website). The captain also mentioned that it would be very difficult for divers to search in this area, because the waters are extremely choppy and it's against a rock. From my time in the Caribbean, I've known of tourists who have been smashed into rocks because they decided to go for a dip in waters similar to that.

Assuming that the body was dumped where the shark feeding are is, would sharks devour the entire body? so that there's nothing that could wash back to shore?

Another question...there's a shark cave diving area in the southeastern side of the island
http://www.sportextreme.com/Diving/Scripts/Dive.page.CountryID.200_TopListType.1_index.html
According to this site, it's 75 minutes away by boat...there are actual diving expeditions there? yikes. Anyhow, this shark cave area may be totally irrelevant, but since we're talking about sharks...

[Florida Girl]

Dan - Anyone?

When the kids first said they saw Natalee with a security guard outside the Holiday Inn, does anyone remember the description of the clothing of the security guard they gave to police? I remember when this first came out (security guard thing) I think they said either he was wearing a black security guard t-shirt, and black pants. I think they said black t-shirt. But later when they interview Mickey John and his attorney, she claimed that his security guard attire consists of a white(?) shirt (and she said shirt, he doesn't wear a t-shirt). I remember that whatever color she said was the opposite of what the kids were reporting to the police. And I remember her saying they don't wear t-shirts on the job. I'm thinking more of a polo type shirt. Now another thing...a lot was made about the word t-shirt in your theory, but if you look at the picture you have posted, and read the article, it claims that a t-shirt was found. In my opinion, that shirt is not what I would call a t-shirt. Maybe a t-shirt to them is not a t-shirt to us....

Anyway, I know this is confusing, but I find it interesting that the shirt in your picture that was found is a white security guard shirt, which is what his attorney (John) said they wear.

Dan Question 1: is this shirt from the security company he worked for, have you found that out yet?

Question 2: Does anyone know if Natalee has any siblings?

[Allison]

I was wondering the same thing. If she were thrown over in the shark area, would the sharks devour the entire body??? Would something wash up??

[Guadalcanal]

FOX=hype, sensation, exageration
CNN= Boring, repetitive
MSNBC= Who watches these clowns?

All three of these networks are showing their thrue colors during the Natalee Holloway story. My heart goes out to the family; they're having to deal with the loss of a loved one and a media circus pushing their buttons.

[Allison]

It was understanding that the boys stated he was dressed in all black. That's what I read and heard on the news.

[Mary]

Dan, with all your different catogories going up people are posting things about the goings on of today in all catagories. Can't we have just one topic of the day to post on. I and I am sure others are having to jump back and fortth to different catagories to read todays posts and events. I hope you will straighten that out. Very confusing.
Seems like there are a lot of things happening fast today.
Please post your thoughts on Dans new catagory.
"A TROUBLING PUZZLE"
THANKS to all of you for making this a "GOOD" source of views and information. !! Keep it going.

[Island Hopper]

The sharks would leave the long bones and possibly skull. It really depends on how hungry they are. Human is not their first choice meal. However, the rocky coastline and the fact that the rocky coast curves under the island in some areas could cause the bones to be lodged in the rock formations under the water where no one swims or dives due to the currents and sharks. A hurricane or tropical storm may at some time dislodge them if they are in fact there.

[Getagrip]

"When the kids first said they saw Natalee with a security guard outside the Holiday Inn, does anyone remember the description of the clothing of the security guard they gave to police? I remember when this first came out (security guard thing) I think they said either he was wearing a black security guard t-shirt, and black pants."
Correct, from what I remember, they said dressed in black i.e. black t-shirt and pants

[Unknown]

Boca Maho means "ugly mouth" ... or more literally "mouth ugly" in English ???

[Allison]

Mary- thx for bringing that up. I was having to do the same thing -going back n forth to other categories and found it hard. I am just sticking to this room and hope others join us.

[Florida Girl]

Michele,
I agree, had it not been for the family and MSM, this would have been swept under the rug by Arubian authorities. I think this could be a common practice for them.

[Getagrip]

"My heart goes out to the family; they're having to deal with the loss of a loved one and a media circus pushing their buttons."- Guadalcanal

My heart goes out to them too, but not because the media is pushing their buttons, the Aruban authorities are: http://www.bwcitypaper.com/1editorialbody.lasso?-token.folder=2005-06-16&-token.story=129206.112112&-nothing

[David]

Having been to the island many times, the Atlantic coast is a no-brainer as far as where the body went, IF it went in the water. And there are plenty of cliffside areas just beyond the Lighthouse. Has anyone heard whether the authorities have thrown a dummy into the water in these type locations to see what happens? The chance taken by them would be for the initial swale/wave to toss the body up into the rocks causing it to hang up. Of course no one looked there for days, and whoever would have been free to check back the following day to make sure that didnt happen. If the body stayed in the water for any time at all, the sharks would have taken care of things........

[Mary]

Allison.....thanks....I HOPE everyone will read that.
Hey everyone, please post here today...thanks!!

[Island Hopper]

I needed to make one correction on what happens after the sharks attack. The long bones are no longer intact. They are usually in many pieces as is the skull, making them hard to identify. Sharks tend to eat in a frenzy, especially after years of being regularly fed then having it suddenly stopped.