Bush Will Win

Like many, I've been knocked about by the press, the pundits, the polling and my own intense feelings over this election. If you're like me, you've had so much thrown at you, it's almost impossible to draw clear distinctions and make an honest prediction unencumbered by wishful thinking. So I've done my best to back up, clear the slate and just try and look at the facts. In doing so, I've come to the conclusion Bush will win.

There is no significant polling which has shown Kerry with any real lead over any period of time. Bush has been ahead from the start and he is ahead today. Here is but one example from today's news:

Thus, while Bush was struggling in Ohio, Kerry was forced to defend Michigan in the campaign's final hours, as well as Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Gore carried all four states in 2000.

We know that this election, like all Presidential elections, will be decided in America's geographic and political center. Kerry has never been able to hide his internationalist nature, a perspective which is not central to American culture, nor shared by most Americans. Consequently, Kerry has never truly "closed the deal" with America. While Kerry's closing theme has been "The whole world is watching", Bush's theme is more in line with "America is watching and choosing it's next President." We are mostly a self-involved culture and couldn't care less for what the world thinks, as opposed to what "we" think. Consequently, Kerry is out of step with the mainstream in this his closing argument, as well as in so many other more obvious ways.

Kerry: Election Will Resonate Worldwide

Protein Wisdom injects a little more emotion to the same theme:

A paternalistic, condescending, bureaucratic transnationalist to the bitter end, John Kerry offered these thoughts today at a rally in Orlando, Florida:

"This is the choice. This is the moment of accountability for America, it’s the moment where the world is watching what you’re going to do."

Also, President Bush is the incumbent and enjoys an advantage both in terms of attention paid to him locally when on the ground, as well as in tactics, unavailable to Kerry, that the President can employ.

WASHINGTON - Just before voters went to the polls, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman headed to Ohio Monday to hand out federal money that she said shows her boss "is committed to assisting small businesses in rural America."

There can be no escaping the fact that National Security is the main issue of this election. The economy isn't tanking, inflation is controlled, growth has been consistent. That shows itself in a couple of ways.

November 1, 2004--As America prepares to vote in Election 2004, 39% say National Security issues are the most important while 26% say Economic Issues are the primary topic. Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care are most important to 14% while 9% focus on cultural issues like same-sex marriage and abortion.

Bush is heavily favored by voters who say National Security issues are most important and by those who are interested primarily in Cultural Issues.

If you've been reading much on this election, and if you're reading here, you have, as I'm quite a bit down on the food chain in that regard, - there is significant "peel away" among voters who would normally support a democrat over a republican. And it all goes to two issues above - security and values. While there is dissatisfaction with Bush among some conservative or republican constituencies, none I've seen or read view Kerry as an acceptable alternative.

As a member of the Manhattan intelligentsia, novelist Tom Wolfe seems a lonely defender of George Bush's conservative values. But, he tells Ed Vulliamy, he's bewildered by a sex-mad society and tired of being lectured to at dinner parties. So is he voting for Dubya tomorrow? He's not quite telling

As to the pure numbers game, I've linked to The Horserace Blog before. Jay is very good at stripping out the emotion and simply looking at the numbers. If his numbers are accurate, and I have no reason to question them, they support a Bush victory. You'll want to read his archives as well as current posts for a good view. And speaking of numbers, Ace links to the purest of all numbers, the econometric models - three of four show Bush winning, one shows a tie - advantage Bush.

Additional support for some of my conclusions can be found at Powerline.

John Kerry has never had 50 percent support during the campaign. I don't know what his high-water mark is, but 47 percent sounds about right. President Bush has often enjoyed better than 50 percent support, although arguably not since some moment after the Republican convention but before the first debate. This means that, for Kerry to win, a lot of people have to break new intellectual ground. For Bush to win, at most a somewhat smaller group just needs to remember what they liked about him.

I also liked the following observation at Wizbang:

The two real questions of the day tomorrow will be whose voters are more committed to turning out, and whose voters - when faced with a 1 1/2 hour wait - will persevere and cast their vote.

That's something pollsters can't measure...

Kerry's campaign has always been anti-Bush and never really pro-Kerry. Couple that with the best Republican ground game in presidential election history - and I think it's a significant advantage for Bush. Read more from Wizbang.

Another note on Polls - the campaigns see much better data than the general public. They pay a lot of money for it. Compare that to what we have been seeing on the ground, states visited, etc. it supports the notion that Bush has mostly been on offense and with some kind of lead. DJ Drummond at Polipundit has probably written more on Polls and polling than any other blogger. I've linked to only one post, but there are many to read if so interested.

Actually, Maverick Media is an advertising firm. President Bush’s actual polling service is Voter/Consumer Research Inc., based in Washington, D.C.

Now for some closing thoughts to round out my position. America is uneasy but not simply with the President. Supposed "Bush hatered" is not nearly as widespread as to give Kerry a majority. It is not an unreasonable conclusion to say that with an uneasy electorate concerned with war, terrorism, a divisive campaign and potential post-election confusion, many will opt for a known quantity when voting tomorrow. There's been reason for much stress over past months, not all of it the fault of the President, I'm not convinced a majority of Americans will opt for the additional stressor of a new president in these difficult times.

Lastly, dems are putting a lot of stock in so-called "new" voters. This is not, as a concept, new. I've heard that over many elections and it has yet to be proven true. I would agree there will be new voters this year. But the reason will not be simply increased registration by the dems and allied groups. Nine -eleven changed this nation and I believe it caused many people to think more about our nation and it's politics long before this campaign season. By and large, that particular influx of participants should help the President. Consequently, the new voter issue may be either a wash for the dems, or actually a net loss.

SO, that's the best I can do. And, unlike the MSM, I do not hide my partianship. If I'm wrong, so be it. The only thing I can really know at this point is, that come tomorrow, I will be voting for the right man for the job - President Bush. I hope enough of my fellow Americans do the same ... and for far more important reasons than to simply prove my analysis true.

Comments

[Terry Gain]

Dan,

Amen. Good luck tomorrow.